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Forex Trading Signal 04/30/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Apr 30, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Here is the video:
    04-30-2009.swf

    Yesterday's GDP figures came in quite low and created some decent short action on the EUR/JPY, but that pre-FOMC buying pressure I warned of eventually pulled things back higher. The FOMC decided not to cut rates further and did not announce any additional measures (saving ammunition as Bill Gross put it), but their rosier outlook and the fact that interest rates held higher than expected created a broad based USD rally. I had expected more of a carry trade move off of such a set of circumstances, so the divergence between EUR/USD and USD/JPY was quite surprising. Gold was a great sell yesterday anywhere at 900 or above and would continue to be a good sell today anywhere between 900 and 910. Stocks are holding their up-channel, but eventually (probably soon) it will break it's lower boundary, so I prefer to sell rallies and take some profits at the trendline support. Even selling now isn't such a bad idea as prices are so close to various resistance levels. For news Thursday:

    0200 UK Nationwide House Price Index m/m (-1.2% expected)
    If it comes out at -0.2% or higher, GBP/USD should rally by 30-40 pips
    If it comes out at -2.2% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off by 40 pips.

    0830 US Personal Income, Spending, and Core PCE m/m numbers - You've got to look at the overall picture created by these releases:
    Income - Expected at -0.2%, a 0.5% deviation should be significant, and 1.0% away from expectations would be big news. Higher numbers should lead to buying pressure on EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, etc. Lower numbers should cause selling pressure.
    Spending - Expected at -0.1%, a 0.5% deviation should be significant, and 1.0% away from expectations would be big news. Higher numbers should lead to buying pressure on EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, etc. Lower numbers should cause selling pressure.
    Core PCE - Expected at 0.1%, a 0.2% deviation should be significant, and 0.4% away from expectations would be big news. High numbers should lead to SELLING pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD while lower numbers should cause BUYING pressure.

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  2. Mark Harding

    Mark Harding Corporal

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    Thank you Sir Pips
     

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