Forex Trading Signal 05/01/08

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hi my dear Trader :)

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon. My video version is MUCH MORE detailed so I encourage you to watch it.

HI-res. Review: Review for Wednesday

HI-res. Preview: Preview for Thursday

Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.

The UK Nationwide Index worked pretty well, and the good thing about this indicator is that sometimes brokers don't raise spreads and the move is nice and slow. However, after 5 minutes the price completely reversed. You could have made 20 to 25 pips on this if you exited early enough. Officially, it was a no trade.

The CPI out of Euro zone did not do anything. Good thing I did not waste my time for this indicator.

The ADP out of U.S. came out +10 K versus -60K expected. It was a buy signal but the price did not move well probably mostly because of the coming interest rate decision. Very weird. I personally got out BE right before the U.S. GDP.

The U.S. GDP came out better by 0.1% - not enough to enter a trade.

The Canadian GDP deviated a lot. We expected +0.2% but we got -0.2% so it deviated by -0.4. Last time when we had 0.5 deviation, the price moved like 70 pips in 4 minutes. Today, however, no one cared. Watch the video for more details and rumors about Canada.

The Chicago PMI came out pretty much as expected so no trade here.

I made a pretty good money on the Interest Rate statement out of the U.S. They did cut the rates by 25 bp as expected so there was no surprise here. However, the commentary was very dovish here. They expressed a lot of worries about the financial market and the U.S. economy, and they try to do a damage control. It seems they might cut rates even more in the future. Watch the video for more details.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, May 01st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI m/m. I am not going to trade this report. At this time, it is quite crappy indicator. If it moves the market, so be it but I prefer to be safe than sorry. Good night for those who live in the American time zones.

2a. Thursday, May 01st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Personal Spending, Core PCE m/m and Initial Jobless Claims. I would focus on the Core PCE and IJC.

The Core PCE is expected to come out at 0.1%. If it hits my trigger of 0.2, it will be a big deal. You can trade it on GBP/USD or EUR/USD. If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, I would sell EUR/USD or GBP/USD and look for 40 pips move. If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, it would be negative for the U.S. dollar, and I would buy GBP/USD or EUR/USD and expect it to move around 40 pips as well.

2b. Thursday, May 01st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
The Initial Jobless Claims is expected to come out at 363K versus 342K last week. If you remember last week, the IJC came out much better than expected so now they expect it to come out even better. The actual expectation ranges from 340K to 375K with median estimate at 363K, as of right now. If it comes out at 340K or lower, that would be good for the U.S. dollar, and you might want to buy USD/JPY and look for about 35 pips of a price action. If it comes out at 380K or higher, it would be bad for the dollar, and you may want to sell USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move. You might consider a little tighter triggers because this is right before the Non-Farm Payroll. If you want to be a little more aggressive, you can trade 375K number on sell USD/JPY and 350K on buy USD/JPY.

3. Thursday, May 01st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index coming out. It is expected to come out at 48 versus 40.6 last month. The range of estimates is from 45.5 to 50.0 so 2.0 trigger would be ideal here. If it comes out at 50 or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, good for 50 pips in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 46 or lower, it would be a sell signal on USD/JPY, good for 50 pips as well. If you want to be a little more aggressive, you can use 1.2 trigger here.

4. Thursday, May 01st, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we are going to have Australian Retail Sales m/m. I would use 0.5 trigger here. If it comes out at 0.8% or higher, it would be good for the Australian dollar and I would buy AUD/USD and expect 30 to 40 pips move or so. If it comes out at -0.2% or more negative, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 30 to 40 pips move as well. If there are any conflicts here, I would stay out or exit the trade quickly.

That's all for Thursday.

If you want to make some money on nice spikes, try The Secret News Weapon - they also offer 21 days money back policy so try it and see if you can grow your account that way. A nice thing about the SNW is it has not only the autoclick feature but it will also allow you to see other reports so you will immediately know if there are any conflicts, and therefore you would know if you should stay in your trade or get out, or maybe even reenter on the retracement. With a fast market moving I cannot imagine checking on-line forex calendars which are really slow.

If you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot

The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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great thanks

i want to thank the FPA and SFS society that has helped me this far in forex.
i must say that i was not a successful trader until i met felix and his free signal online. his analysis of news event has got me me lots of pips while also loosing those pips to technical trading.
i decided to stick to news trading alone but the introduction of this video thing in the free signal as against the usual text format hindered my getting felix expert analysis on the fed rate cut.
today, i have lost all and presently out of this business for a while if not forever.
so i want to thank these expert society as well as recommend that it will be better if the signals can be in both text format (esp for those with sorry internet connection likemine) and video.
Felix may God richly bless u.
thank u very much.
God bless all.


Sorry to hear that you lost.

A couple of suggestions for the future.

1. If you aren't 100% sure you understand the signals (whether FPA Signals or other signals), hold back and DO NOT TRADE. Better to wait and make your fortune tomorrow than to lose everything today.

Speaking of losing everything today:

2. Never risk too much of your account on any one trade. No matter how good the signals are, if you risk your whole account on every trade, you will eventually lose everything.