Forex Trading Signal 05/13/09

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

Many USD pairs like the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and some others are approaching some former high fibbonacci resistance on the daily chart. While the picture continues to highlight some nice bullish momentum, with many USD pairs overextended into resistance, it looks like a good setup for a short to medium term short. Watch the video for more details there. After pushing through 919, gold is looking potentially short term bullish, but the potential for a medium to long term significant decline is still quite palpable, so I'd play it with either a short term buy looking for the 935-950 range to take profits, or wait for a potential rally to that region to get short for a longer position/swing trade. Stocks are starting to exhibit signs of waning momentum and this time sentiment is really starting to flip a bit negative along with it. I think a 100 point or so pullback is inevitable on the S&P and with lower highs and lower lows on the hourly chart, I think it may be brewing even now.

Tuesday saw the UK Claimant Count Change released "accidentally" early in the NY session and came out much better than expected, although that did not benefit the GBP greatly. Because of that there is no 0430 EST release out of the UK, and all eyes will be focused on the 0530 BoE Inflation Report.

0530 BoE Inflation Report - The last 4 straight quarters have produced very large down moves on GBP on a consistent basis; however, the picture seems to be changing in the UK and this could really go either way. I'm expecting a little bit of early buying on GBP/USD early in the session, but it likely be met with some stiff selling heading into this report as people could fear some sobering projections. Fundamentally, there are 3 aspects to look at in this report:
Quantitative Easing Language - This is the main thing the market is looking for on this report. Reassurring language that makes it seem as though the Asset Purchases are working well and further expansions are not needed will be GBP bullish, while language either concerned about its effectiveness or hints that the program is likely to be expanded either further will be GBP bearish.
Growth and Inflation Forecasts - Very pessimistic language on growth and worries about deflation will lead to selling pressure while more optimistic outlooks on growth and more concern on inflation will likely lead to buying pressure.

0830 US Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected) - This should have a good reaction out of the yen crosses as it did last month, but I expect some prenews buying pressure on those pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY as many news items like these have been surprising to the upside and some speculators may want to get in on it early.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally by 40-50 pips (if there is very noticable prenews buying though, those gains may be shortlived)
If it comse out at -0.8% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off by 40-50 pips regardless of whether prenews buying materialized.

To our success,
Sir Pipsalot

Russell Marsh

Here it is!! - KEEP THE VIDEOS COMING!!!!


I found it by looking at an older video and changing the date in the address..

Enjoy.. ;)

Last edited:

Mark Harding


I'm a "watched to this point so really enjoy the video guy".

I feel like I have a basic idea of what's going on from the video, which I don't really get from the text, so watching your video is part of my daily trading routine.

Many of my posts go missing from this site, eg the link to the video that I posted half-an-hour ago, but I've also seen such posts reappear the next day. The site also often freezes when I post, and I lose the post.

I wonder if other people have similar problems, which could explain the lack of posts.

I'll be cutting and pasting this in preparation for having to submit it a number of times in a number of ways.

I also enjoy the video because I find the sound of your voice very reassuring !

Thanks again, and best regards


Mark Harding

worked first try that time !

The video link can also be found by navigating through the sirpipsalot site, outlook, 2009 etc



Hi Sir Pipsalot

I am new to the FX and your posts are a HUGE help in understanding the connection between technical and fundamental analysis and what is moving FX or not. Please don't stop making the video and text posts. What is written, becomes clearer by watching the video. The combo rules! :)


Private, 1st Class
did many people lose money today?

Sir Pips, keep the videos coming! They are way better and clearer than the dreary texts.

As for today, was there any substantial pre-buying on any of the currency pairs prior to the release of the Retail Sales numbers today, and which were they? if there was, does this mean many people lost money when the numbers came out worse than expected? Need feedback on this. Thanks.
Sure there was!!!

Oh, there was buying pressure on the EUR/JPY pair from like 15 minutes before the release of the news, worth something around 40 pips!, after the news came worse than expected, EUR/JPY fell more than 50 pips, I didn't even count as I was so joyful I found Sir Pips... Of course a lot of people lost money... and a lot won... Forex is a zero difference system... this means something like the exchange rate follows the price where exactly the same money is lost than won from either side and ends the swings when equilibrium is met... with a "price agreement"... pure democracy... jeje


Hey Sir Pips, just wanted to let you know I'm paying attention and your videos are indeed most useful, much more so than just the text alone!! Please keep it up :)