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Forex Trading Signal 05/21/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, May 21, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey Folks,

    Here is the link for the video:
    05-21-2009.swf

    I'm really excited because I believe things are finally starting to set up short in a much more clear manner. The downside we've anticipated in our signals over the last few days is starting to take shape and increase in probability. The S&P yesterday completed a major head fake move upwards only to get slammed down late which is further evidence of a top that should cause further dominoes to fall downwards. Getting short in this region is still getting in pretty early if we get the 100+ point decline that we are long overdue. A break of the 875 lows will solidify this view while a break upwards of Wednesday's highs will bring doubts to the table and force us to reassess our outlook. Please watch the video for a more detailed look at this and the other forecasts.

    Assuming we are near the start of a more major stock decline, the strong correllation between stocks & risk aversion with JPY and USD strength should help force the major XXX/USD and XXX/JPY pairs lower. I prefer shorts on EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD right now since they've had some nice rallies and have plenty of room to the downside, but their JPY cross counterparts should see downside as well and perhaps even more so if USD/JPY can continue its downwards momentum instead of finding support. Specifically on EUR/USD, I think a near-term selloff to 1.3585 and possibly a test of the 1.3400 lows is in the works, so I'm short now as I write this from the 1.3760's with those levels as take profits.

    After yesterday's update, I've taken a much closer look at gold and unfortunately, I think it has further to rise near-term. I had thought 935-950 would contain golds rally, but with an equity market selloff likely making gold look more attractive, I think a more substantial rise to 965 to 972 is the more likely scenario. I recommend covering shorts and scalping long, or holding short through the rise and adding more in that region depending on how leveraged you are. I do still feel confident that a much more substantial decline will develop after this rally completes.

    News on Wednesday was pretty insignificant with not much to work with, but it is evident that CAD releases are getting manipulated post-release, so we'll be careful on future CAD news. For Thursday:

    0430 UK Retail Sales m/m (0.5% expected) - UK Retail Sales will likely get a lot more attention today and in coming months as they've changed their methodologies. This will also likely increase the probability of getting a nice surprise.
    If it comes out at 1.5% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 50 pips
    If it comes out at -0.5% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 50 pips

    1000 US Philly Fed Index (-18 expected) - This indicator has performed rather poorly and I don't recommend trading smaller triggers; however, a big surprise could get something going. I trust a downside trigger more than a positive surprise. If there is a much smaller positive surprise, I might consider selling into a spike up and grabbing action on a reversal.
    If it comes out at 0 or higher (positive) then EUR/JPY should rally by 35 pips or so
    If it comes out at -36 or lower, then EUR/JPY should sell off by 40+ pips

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    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. TheMan

    TheMan Private, 1st Class

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    to Crazy Cat

    May I ask what is the batting average of all the forecasts u have given?

    please quantify what u mean, because this "batting average" can be subjective (what u mean by success: u forecasting the correct technicals, or just the correct trend? etc...)

    Thanks!
     
  3. gent911

    gent911 Recruit

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    forecast

    Well, the current forecast (21.05), how should I put it in a more polite way, just sucks, to say at least... if the guy went short at 1.3760 and right at the moment the spot rate stands at 1.3950... good luck taking the profit...

    --
     

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