Forex Trading Signal 06/02/09

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

Well, we've certainly had some considerable strength in the markets the last few days. What we knew was that the big rally up from March needed some sort of a corrrection, but instead of a more substantial dip lower, we got more of a triangle corrective pattern that started to break higher arguably late on Friday, but really busted higher on Monday. Now it seems more clear the final set of advances up over 1000 on the S&P 500 is underway, so down days and dips should be good short to medium term buying opportunities. We're likely setting up for a bit of a pullback lower to or below 930 on Tuesday, so there may be a good opportunity to get long toward the end of the equity trading day.

The USD as a whole has been in the throws of a sharp final wave of panic selling that makes positioning a bit difficult. The EUR/USD is definitely setting up for a more major reversal, but it may or may not have even sharper final surges higher before making a serious turn. Because of this, I'm refraining from taking longer term trades until a more significant low is broken, such as 1.3790... until then I'll be taking shorter term trades getting in on momentum on short term pullbacks or trading established ranges/channels.

Gold's correction off the sharp Monday highs seems to be enough to signal a potential reversal (finally). Those of you who have held short gold or added to shorts up here should start to see the position regain some ground. If you're not in short, getting short gold here around 975 is still a good opportunity for a longer term trade even if it turns out to be a bit early. I think there's at least a reasonable chance we will not exceed Monday's highs and simply head on lower from here, but we shall see.

For the news on Wednesday, there's a lot of minor things coming out, but nothing terribly powerful. The one trade I'd recommend trading is:

2130 AU GDP q/q (-0.2% expected) - With a decent 0.2% deviation, this trade should perform quite well, especially with the mixed sentiment we got out of the RBA meeting earlier tonight. Just watch for revisions to the prior quarter in case that messes around with the y/y figure to create conflicts.
If it comes out at -0.4% or lower, AUD/USD should sell off 40-50 pips.
If it comes out at 0.0% or higher, AUD/USD shold rally by 40-50 pips.

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To our success,
Sir Pipsalot