Forex Trading Signal 06/10/09

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

Here is the video:

We've seen a pretty sharp and momentuous retracement of last weeks selloff obviously threatening the validity of the call for a resumption of downside over the medium term on GBP/USD and EUR/USD. As of right now, it may end up simply being a very sharp retracement that will resume it's ultimate move lower fairly soon; however, there's so much buying pressure that it's probably best to stay neutral until we get a bit more confirmation. Unfortunately, we can't rule out either case until we start making some decent lower lows or break some of last week's key highs, so watch the video for a bit more on that and also stocks and gold and we'll take another look at them tomorrow. We are finally getting a bit of news this week though:

0430 UK Industrial Production (-0.1% expected) - This should be good for some pips short term, with follow-through more dependent on the medium term technicals
If it comes out at +0.2% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 30-45 pips.
If it comes out at -0.4% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off by 30-45 pips.

1700 NZ Interest Rate statement (expectations range from no change to 0.50% cut, with consensus somewhere in between no change and 0.25% cut) - Watch out for the text from the statement here on this one since sometimes the language conflicts with the decision itself.
If they leave the rate unchanged, NZD/USD should quickly rally 40 pips or more.
If they cut 0.50%, NZD/USD should sell off by 50+ pips.

AU Employment Change (-30K expected) and Unemployment Rate (5.7% expected) - Watch out for both numbers as either one is about as important as the other.
If Employment comes out at 0 or higher, and/or Unemployment Rate comes in at 5.5% or lower, AUD/USD should rally by 40+ pips.
If Employment comes out at -50K or lower, and/or Unemployment Rate comes in at 5.9% or higher, AUD/USD should sell off by 40+ pips.

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To our success,
Sir Pipsalot