Hi there my friend 
Let's first review what happened on Friday.
On Friday we had Canadian CPI coming out. I was focuses on the headline number which did not deviate at all. However, the core number deviated by 0.5. USD/CAD spiked down by 20 pips or so and then the price went the other way. I know some people who traded either the headline or the core number with 0.5 for a quick scalp and fast profit taking, and they did well taking a few pips. I did not enter a trade myself because I was not that confident with the core number. Congratulations if you made some money. No trade for me.
Let's talk about Monday.
Monday is very simple, one very good report coming out and that's it.
1. Monday, June 23rd, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 3:30 a.m. we will have German Manufacturing PMI. THIS IS FOR SCALPING ONLY with the SNW service. Recently, this made pretty nice moves and because a lot of people don't trade it and EUR/USD has a lot of liquidity, the spread might be very small. If I can grab 10 to 15 pips, why not? For scalping purposes with a SMALL spread (no more than 5 pips), I would use 0.5 trigger with 10 pips mental profit target. For mental 15 to 20 pips take profit, I would like to see 0.8 deviation. Because this would be scalping, be prepared to exit quickly at BE or even small loss. Don't go under the water with such small reports. The German Manufacturing PMI is expected to come out at 53.2. If it comes out at 53.7 or higher, I would go long (buy) on EUR/USD with mental TP of 10 pips. If it comes out at 52.7 or less, I would go short on EUR/USD with mental TP of 10 pips as well. This might not work with such small deviation but I hardly can imagine losing big money if the spread is small enough. Again, 0.8 trigger would be more safe, and 1.0 should actually work pretty well. Keep also in mind that 30 minutes later we will have next German report so the market might be waiting for the next number. For that reason I will be taking profit or loss within first 1 minute or so, or at least I will close 1/2 within the first minute. Again, this is just scalping, and I invite only those who like scalping and taking more risk, and know how to react fast and without emotions.
2. Monday, June 23rd, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO Business Climate. 1.0 deviation should move EUR/USD by even by 50 pips. It is expected to come out at 102.5. If it comes out at 103.5, I would go long (buy) on EUR/USD and expect 50 pips move in next 30 minutes or so. If it comes out at 101.5 or less, I would go short on EUR/USD and expect 50 pips move as well. Does it mean I need to take 50 pips? No, I will be more than happy to take 30 pips if the market will let me do that, and probably I will be out within a minute or two at max. 20 pips profit is fine with me as well so I will get what the spike gives and I will go to bed. But I would also try to trade it with smaller deviation on a smaller position as a scalp. For a mental 10 to 15 pips scalp if the spread is under 7 pips, I would try to trade 0.7 deviation so if it comes out at 103.2 or better, that would be a QUICK buy scalp on EUR/USD, and if it comes out at 101.8 or less, that would be a QUICK sell scalp on EUR/USD. By a quick scalp, I mean *quick*, and I am ready to close at BE or small loss if it is necessary. This also assumes you trust your broker that you will be filled at a good price, and you will be able to close your position anytime you wish.
So that would be all for Monday
If you have any feedback, or your own ideas how to trade it, please leave a post so other people can benefit from it too.
Again, I would like to remind you that I will be trading what I wrote on my own live account so I try my best to make a good judgement. If I don't, then I will pay the price on my life account. So far, most of the time I have gains on my accounts...
If you need a software for spike trading, give a try at The Secret News Weapon - they don't pay me any commission on mentioning it, and I administer the Diamonds room rather than the SNW service. But I make a very good money on the spikes so you may give a try too. They offer 25 days money back policy so there is nothing what you can lose.
Sir Pips is on the vacation right now so Magister Pips is substituting him on the Diamonds room. If you need some real time guidance on trading the news, give a try at Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education - this comes with 21 days money back policy. Worst case scenario you will learn something and get your money back.
Thank you very much and happy trading!
To our success!
--Crazy Cat
Let's first review what happened on Friday.
On Friday we had Canadian CPI coming out. I was focuses on the headline number which did not deviate at all. However, the core number deviated by 0.5. USD/CAD spiked down by 20 pips or so and then the price went the other way. I know some people who traded either the headline or the core number with 0.5 for a quick scalp and fast profit taking, and they did well taking a few pips. I did not enter a trade myself because I was not that confident with the core number. Congratulations if you made some money. No trade for me.
Let's talk about Monday.
Monday is very simple, one very good report coming out and that's it.
1. Monday, June 23rd, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 3:30 a.m. we will have German Manufacturing PMI. THIS IS FOR SCALPING ONLY with the SNW service. Recently, this made pretty nice moves and because a lot of people don't trade it and EUR/USD has a lot of liquidity, the spread might be very small. If I can grab 10 to 15 pips, why not? For scalping purposes with a SMALL spread (no more than 5 pips), I would use 0.5 trigger with 10 pips mental profit target. For mental 15 to 20 pips take profit, I would like to see 0.8 deviation. Because this would be scalping, be prepared to exit quickly at BE or even small loss. Don't go under the water with such small reports. The German Manufacturing PMI is expected to come out at 53.2. If it comes out at 53.7 or higher, I would go long (buy) on EUR/USD with mental TP of 10 pips. If it comes out at 52.7 or less, I would go short on EUR/USD with mental TP of 10 pips as well. This might not work with such small deviation but I hardly can imagine losing big money if the spread is small enough. Again, 0.8 trigger would be more safe, and 1.0 should actually work pretty well. Keep also in mind that 30 minutes later we will have next German report so the market might be waiting for the next number. For that reason I will be taking profit or loss within first 1 minute or so, or at least I will close 1/2 within the first minute. Again, this is just scalping, and I invite only those who like scalping and taking more risk, and know how to react fast and without emotions.
2. Monday, June 23rd, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO Business Climate. 1.0 deviation should move EUR/USD by even by 50 pips. It is expected to come out at 102.5. If it comes out at 103.5, I would go long (buy) on EUR/USD and expect 50 pips move in next 30 minutes or so. If it comes out at 101.5 or less, I would go short on EUR/USD and expect 50 pips move as well. Does it mean I need to take 50 pips? No, I will be more than happy to take 30 pips if the market will let me do that, and probably I will be out within a minute or two at max. 20 pips profit is fine with me as well so I will get what the spike gives and I will go to bed. But I would also try to trade it with smaller deviation on a smaller position as a scalp. For a mental 10 to 15 pips scalp if the spread is under 7 pips, I would try to trade 0.7 deviation so if it comes out at 103.2 or better, that would be a QUICK buy scalp on EUR/USD, and if it comes out at 101.8 or less, that would be a QUICK sell scalp on EUR/USD. By a quick scalp, I mean *quick*, and I am ready to close at BE or small loss if it is necessary. This also assumes you trust your broker that you will be filled at a good price, and you will be able to close your position anytime you wish.
So that would be all for Monday
If you have any feedback, or your own ideas how to trade it, please leave a post so other people can benefit from it too.
Again, I would like to remind you that I will be trading what I wrote on my own live account so I try my best to make a good judgement. If I don't, then I will pay the price on my life account. So far, most of the time I have gains on my accounts...
If you need a software for spike trading, give a try at The Secret News Weapon - they don't pay me any commission on mentioning it, and I administer the Diamonds room rather than the SNW service. But I make a very good money on the spikes so you may give a try too. They offer 25 days money back policy so there is nothing what you can lose.
Sir Pips is on the vacation right now so Magister Pips is substituting him on the Diamonds room. If you need some real time guidance on trading the news, give a try at Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education - this comes with 21 days money back policy. Worst case scenario you will learn something and get your money back.
Thank you very much and happy trading!
To our success!
--Crazy Cat
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