Hi,
I am testing new servers so today's signal is posted here:
Forex Daily Signals
Thanks,
Crazy Cat
I am testing new servers so today's signal is posted here:
Forex Daily Signals
Thanks,
Crazy Cat
Forex Trading Signal 06/25/08
- Thread starter Crazy Cat
- Start date
AsstModerator
FPA Forums and Reviews Admin
- Messages
- 5,745
Please do try the link so we can test the alternate server.
For those who cannot get access to the alternate server, here's what CC wrote...
Today I put the signal on the other website because I am testing the server performance. If people can read this signals without any problems, then we might be moving Forex Peace Army to the servers I am testing now. I just noticed that after I am sending emails with the link to the FPA website, a lot of people cannot load the page quickly so I am working on the solution for this problem. To increase the data traffic, and therefore to make this test more challenging for the servers, please browse the pictures of Chicago after reading the signal below.
Anyway, let's go back to business.
We did not have any tradable reports yesterday so there is nothing to review.
Let's talk about Wednesday.
We are going to have two reports that might be tradable.
1. Wednesday, June 24th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods Ex Transportation. I would trade it with 2.0 deviation which should move USD/JPY by 35 pips. This is NOT a hot report, in my opinion. In fact, I don't trust this report and I don't like trading it but I think it is OK to try it with 2.0 deviation on the core number but be prepared to see 100% retracement. It is expected to come out at -0.9%. If it comes out at +1.1% or higher, I would go long (buy) on USD/JPY and look for 35 pips price action. If it comes out at -3.0% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 35 to 40 pips price action as well. If you are in profit, close at least 1/2 as soon as possible because I am really afraid of a retracement here. I am going to get what the market gives immediately and run away. I would not go with smaller triggers because this report is not predictable - sometimes we get nice moves whereas other times it does not work well at all. We will also have FOMC meeting tomorrow, so the market might be more calm during news announcement. Watch out for possible conflicts with the headline number.
2. Wednesday, June 24th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. New Home Sales. This is also quite weak report but with 50K deviation it should be tradable or at least worthy to give a try. It is expected to come out at 511K If it comes out at 561K or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect to see up to 30 pips move on USD/JPY. If it comes out at 469K or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips move as well. Although I would love to have lower triggers to improve a chance of having a trade, I don't feel like I am going to trade less than 50K triggers, and even with 50K triggers I will pay a close attention to spread.
3. Wednesday, June 24th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:15 p.m. we will have US FOMC Interest Rate Statement. I am still working on this report but in general it seems the market is expecting no change so if they cut the rates, it would be weakening U.S. dollar, and if they hike the rates, it should be good for the U.S. dollar. Unfortunately, I would need to do more research to be more specific and probably I will have a trade plan right before the announcement.
So that would be all for Wednesday.
For those who cannot get access to the alternate server, here's what CC wrote...
Today I put the signal on the other website because I am testing the server performance. If people can read this signals without any problems, then we might be moving Forex Peace Army to the servers I am testing now. I just noticed that after I am sending emails with the link to the FPA website, a lot of people cannot load the page quickly so I am working on the solution for this problem. To increase the data traffic, and therefore to make this test more challenging for the servers, please browse the pictures of Chicago after reading the signal below.
Anyway, let's go back to business.
We did not have any tradable reports yesterday so there is nothing to review.
Let's talk about Wednesday.
We are going to have two reports that might be tradable.
1. Wednesday, June 24th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods Ex Transportation. I would trade it with 2.0 deviation which should move USD/JPY by 35 pips. This is NOT a hot report, in my opinion. In fact, I don't trust this report and I don't like trading it but I think it is OK to try it with 2.0 deviation on the core number but be prepared to see 100% retracement. It is expected to come out at -0.9%. If it comes out at +1.1% or higher, I would go long (buy) on USD/JPY and look for 35 pips price action. If it comes out at -3.0% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 35 to 40 pips price action as well. If you are in profit, close at least 1/2 as soon as possible because I am really afraid of a retracement here. I am going to get what the market gives immediately and run away. I would not go with smaller triggers because this report is not predictable - sometimes we get nice moves whereas other times it does not work well at all. We will also have FOMC meeting tomorrow, so the market might be more calm during news announcement. Watch out for possible conflicts with the headline number.
2. Wednesday, June 24th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. New Home Sales. This is also quite weak report but with 50K deviation it should be tradable or at least worthy to give a try. It is expected to come out at 511K If it comes out at 561K or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect to see up to 30 pips move on USD/JPY. If it comes out at 469K or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips move as well. Although I would love to have lower triggers to improve a chance of having a trade, I don't feel like I am going to trade less than 50K triggers, and even with 50K triggers I will pay a close attention to spread.
3. Wednesday, June 24th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:15 p.m. we will have US FOMC Interest Rate Statement. I am still working on this report but in general it seems the market is expecting no change so if they cut the rates, it would be weakening U.S. dollar, and if they hike the rates, it should be good for the U.S. dollar. Unfortunately, I would need to do more research to be more specific and probably I will have a trade plan right before the announcement.
So that would be all for Wednesday.
NZ Current Account Balance
I think NZ Current Account Balance is a tradable news.
It seems like 0.4 deviation would be a nice trigger on both sides.
Last time it deviated a great deal but it conflicted significantly with the revision number and it resulted in quick retracement, and seemed like nothing happened.
I personally do not like trading on NZ news, like the last retail sales that conflicted crazy, but it works pretty well IF NO CONFLICTS.
NZ Current Account Balance is a report released once in a quarter so we only have 4 times to trade in a year, but you may wanna consider trading in next September if it will show a nice movement a few hours later.
I think NZ Current Account Balance is a tradable news.
It seems like 0.4 deviation would be a nice trigger on both sides.
Last time it deviated a great deal but it conflicted significantly with the revision number and it resulted in quick retracement, and seemed like nothing happened.
I personally do not like trading on NZ news, like the last retail sales that conflicted crazy, but it works pretty well IF NO CONFLICTS.
NZ Current Account Balance is a report released once in a quarter so we only have 4 times to trade in a year, but you may wanna consider trading in next September if it will show a nice movement a few hours later.
Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Well Hisashi, your 0.4 deviation came in, and NZD/USD did move 25 pips and hold on, but that was it. In my opinion, to trade AUD and especially NZD reports you want something good for more like 40+ pips since there is usually much higher spread and lower liquidity around the news for those countries. It's just tough to make much money on a 25 pip move (18 of which was in the first minute) when you're dealing with up to 15-30 pip spreads around the news and 5+ pips when things settle down. That's why I personally am a little more selective with trading on those countries; however, if you have a nice broker situation where spreads and fills are a lot easier on you... by all means give it a shot. For the majority of us though either trading with an ECN or with a market maker broker that is tough, but still decent enough to trade with, smaller NZD and AUD reports will lose more money over time then they earn.