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Forex Trading Signal 06/29/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Jun 29, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Here is the video:
    06-29-2009.swf

    No news out worth trading on Monday, so most of the video is focused on discussing the trends on EUR/USD, Gold, and the S&P 500. In news on Friday 6/26, we saw US Spending data and PCE come out right as expected, but Personal Income came out very positive over 1% better than expected. Honestly, I got fooled on this thinking it would lead to some risk appetite buying; however, I guess some of the details behind the number showed it was more of a one time payoff effect of the stimulus bill and since people saved it all instead of spending it, the market reaction quickly flipped negative on it. Just a pretty complicated release, but it shows us that next time we need to focus more exclusively on the spending numbers.

    Right now, Gold's new downtrend is pretty firmly established, so it remains a good position trade short or swing trade short opportunity at rallies to key fib levels shown in the video.

    Stocks and EUR/USD are a bit more tricky though. Stocks still look poised for a good decline, but their volatile strength last week is starting to increase the odds we may be wrong there... On the EUR/USD, we've maintained a sell on rallies and hold short for position trades bias since around June 5th, but the bigger break lower just hasn't come, and this very rangebound consolidation could turn into another major bullish leg if we start setting some higher highs on the 4 hour chart. A move above 1.4120 and especially 1.4140 is probably the nail in the coffin and we'll need to either stand aside into a neutral bias, or flip bullish based on how things look at that point. So, long story short right now, is we're still tentatively biased short and holding short in both stocks and EU, but the situation has degenerated to more of a day to day touch type of scenario, so we'll have to wait and see how things develop over the next day or two. Hopefully our perseverance will pay off and we'll get some risk aversion stock weakness and USD strength here.

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  2. Mark Harding

    Mark Harding Corporal

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    Thanks Sir Pipsalot.
     

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