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Forex Trading Signal 07/02/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Jul 2, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Here is the video:
    07-02-2009.swf

    Sorry about yesterday, I had a text signal, but I forgot to click send in my email to send it to Crazy Cat, lol... I was kind of tired last night. Anyways, I didn't like most of the news anyways since it's all small stuff that can move the market sometimes, but I didn't expect much and we didn't get much. For more conversation on the numbers from Wednesday, watch the video.

    From a trend perspective, enough upside damage has been done to the EUR/USD and GBP/USD to shift our stance from very bearish, to on the fence bearish and now to neutral. The odds have definitely increased that we're going to head to higher highs before the next major, major selloff from a long term perspective, so if you've been short on a position trade like I was and you're still in, I recommend closing it out and taking a wait and see approach from the sidelines. From a swing trading perspective, a lot of potential exists to grab pieces of the volatility though in either direction. Short term, the low ADP number yesterday may help spark some risk aversion selling in EU and GU during today's European session in advance of US Jobs data

    Fortunately though, the downside potential for Gold looks a bit more clear. We may retrace a little higher toward the 960 area before the next big selloff, but it's not necessary. One thing I look at a bit more closely in the video is that Silver is probably a better long term short than gold given the kind of market action we're looking for. A run down to 700 on gold would probably force silver to $8 or $7 and have much cleaner price action. Right now, silver is even near a head and shoulders neckline on the daily with a break of 13.45 signaling the next wave of downside may be commencing.

    Stocks may be rounding off the top of a right shoulder as we speak. Also, some reliable newsletters and analysts I follow are pointing towards diverging signals across different indexes and the VIX as a good sign of a short term top right about now. Sounds like we're either starting or about to start another A-B-C or 1-2-3 decline (whichever your naming preference) to the 800-850 area. I recommend getting short now on S&P 500 futures (around 917 as I write), buying SDS (around 54.75 as I write), or buying August or September 90 or 92 put option contracts on the SPY. I'll keep you guys up to date on this day to day as it develops, but as long as we stay below the 955 highs, I like the trade.

    Thusday's news seems very seductive getting Trichet's speech and Nonfarm Payrolls at the same time, but usually when a lot of news comes out all at once, big traders just kind of stay out of the mess and prices get manipulated around by short term speculators and dealers. I expect some brutal fakeout-ish price action, but that could take the form of a trend as well.

    0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision (expected no change at 1.00%) - Very unlikely we'll see a move here, but if there is, it will be big.
    If there is any hike, EUR/USD will rise by 100 pips or more quickly
    If there is any cut, EUR/USD will sell off by 70 pips or more quickly

    0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls Employment Change (-365K expected) & Unemployment Rate (9.6% expected) - Yesterday's somewhat low ADP number will have markets looking for a bit of bad news in the form of a revision down to last month's NFP, or a low number on this month's number. As I discuss in the video, I expect a lot of price manipulation and WTF kind of stuff on this one, so look out. The revision (if 70K or more) may prove to be even more important than this month's number.
    If Unemployment Rate comes out at 9.8% or higher, and Employment data is lower than expected, GBP/JPY should sell off 80 pips.
    If NFP comes out at -299 or higher without a bad revision to last month's data, GBP/JPY should rally 60 pips.
    If NFP comes out at -500 or lower without a good revision to last month's data, GBP/JPY should sell off 60 pips.

    0830-0840 start time for Trichet's post interest rate decision speech - Look out for this as it will likely last about 90 minutes with the Q&A to spark some potential volatility on the Euro. If something big drops, it will also affect the USD indirectly.

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    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. germanslobo

    germanslobo Recruit

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    What means -299 or higher?.

    Hello: Thanks for your signals.

    Sorry for this questions, but when you said :

    "If NFP comes out at -299 or higher without a bad revision to last month's data, GBP/JPY should rally 60 pips.

    -299 or higher means : more negative or more positive?.

    Thanks.

    Best regards.


     
  3. krill

    krill Recruit

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    password

    I am a registered member of the forum. How can I obtain the password for the signals section of the forum and will I be able to receive the daily signal via my e-mail address or do I need this password? Thank you in advance.:)
     
  4. krill

    krill Recruit

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    I just found the answer, thank you.
     

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