Hey folks,
After a busy last day of NY trading for the week (Friday's a holiday), most of the media is attributing the big risk aversion and stock sell-off move to the bad NFP data, but I just really think that's not the case. Sure the NFP coming in 100 below expectations helped speed things along, but there was no major revision to last month's number, and the unemployment rate even came in a bit better than expected. It's important to recognize that economic indicators like these are NOT causing direction medium or long term. They simply provide some short term action that can help, hinder, accellerate, or delay an underlying move. We did indeed get the short term EUR/USD and GBP/USD down move yesterday we were looking for as well, but it was just that, a short term down move. Until we start setting some lower lows and breaking key support on either pair, it's best to keep playing the range on the 3 hour chart.
The big down move in stocks we were looking for was already clearly set up last night (I clearly called for a short on stocks in both text and video), and it sure came in a hurry. With that head and shoulders pattern on the S&P 500 more clearly formed, the big question is whether or not we break out through the neckline. Depending on how you draw it, that neckline is either at 893 (sloping trendline support from mid May), 888 (previous daily swing low), or 879 (daily lows from mid May). I'm really not sure which of these is the clear breakout level to watch since a case could be made for each, which is why I wanted to get short early closer to the top of the right shoulder. Because I think the odds of a break lower are quite strong, I would advocate a short on any decent bounce to 900-920 if and when we get one if you're not already in. As far as profit taking is concerned, I'd plan to take some profits around 850 and we'll see how things look when we get there for the rest.
In metals, silver just poked out below the key $13.45 support, and is holding just below it for now. I recommend either initiating a position trade short now, or waiting and doing so after a nice rally tops out. Watch yesterday's (7-02) video signal for more on silver and gold. In news Friday:
0430 UK Services PMI expected at 51.5 -- This is a pretty solid indicator that usually makes a good 50+ pips on a big trigger, but it had a lackluster 30 pip surge and turnaround last month on a +2.2 surprise. Despite that, I think this piece of news has a nice track record and I think any surprise 1.5 or greater should get a bigger move than last month.
If it comes out at 53 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 50 pips in the first 20 minutes
If it comes out at 49.9 or lower, GBP/USD should sell off 50 pips in the first 20 minutes
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
After a busy last day of NY trading for the week (Friday's a holiday), most of the media is attributing the big risk aversion and stock sell-off move to the bad NFP data, but I just really think that's not the case. Sure the NFP coming in 100 below expectations helped speed things along, but there was no major revision to last month's number, and the unemployment rate even came in a bit better than expected. It's important to recognize that economic indicators like these are NOT causing direction medium or long term. They simply provide some short term action that can help, hinder, accellerate, or delay an underlying move. We did indeed get the short term EUR/USD and GBP/USD down move yesterday we were looking for as well, but it was just that, a short term down move. Until we start setting some lower lows and breaking key support on either pair, it's best to keep playing the range on the 3 hour chart.
The big down move in stocks we were looking for was already clearly set up last night (I clearly called for a short on stocks in both text and video), and it sure came in a hurry. With that head and shoulders pattern on the S&P 500 more clearly formed, the big question is whether or not we break out through the neckline. Depending on how you draw it, that neckline is either at 893 (sloping trendline support from mid May), 888 (previous daily swing low), or 879 (daily lows from mid May). I'm really not sure which of these is the clear breakout level to watch since a case could be made for each, which is why I wanted to get short early closer to the top of the right shoulder. Because I think the odds of a break lower are quite strong, I would advocate a short on any decent bounce to 900-920 if and when we get one if you're not already in. As far as profit taking is concerned, I'd plan to take some profits around 850 and we'll see how things look when we get there for the rest.
In metals, silver just poked out below the key $13.45 support, and is holding just below it for now. I recommend either initiating a position trade short now, or waiting and doing so after a nice rally tops out. Watch yesterday's (7-02) video signal for more on silver and gold. In news Friday:
0430 UK Services PMI expected at 51.5 -- This is a pretty solid indicator that usually makes a good 50+ pips on a big trigger, but it had a lackluster 30 pip surge and turnaround last month on a +2.2 surprise. Despite that, I think this piece of news has a nice track record and I think any surprise 1.5 or greater should get a bigger move than last month.
If it comes out at 53 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 50 pips in the first 20 minutes
If it comes out at 49.9 or lower, GBP/USD should sell off 50 pips in the first 20 minutes
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
