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Forex Trading Signal 07/07/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Jul 7, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    ISM and AU Interest Rate data didn't surprise significantly, so no trades there. EUR/USD and GBP/USD managed a nice down move Monday, but with the Euro still in its consolidation range, I think we still need to stand aside with any big long term bias and continue to focus on the 4 hour chart range for swing trades. Since we're low in that range, there's a bit less resistance to the upside on both pairs. GU made big new swing highs late last week, and now big new swing lows, so it's a big question mark as to what's next as far as I'm concerned.

    Stocks should definitely maintain a downtrend with this head and shoulders pattern looming, but we could manage a short term rally as high as the 915-930 area to round off the right shoulder a second time. I would view any rally above 910 as a good swing/position trade short opportunity since a break of the neckline at 878 would signal another 80 point or so technical decline near the 800 level. This whole thing may take another week or so to finish up and get rolling though, so be patient until the neckline breaks.

    Gold and silver remain under pressure, but either could have another short term rally before their next big selloff, so continue to hold short if you're in, but maybe wait for some decent bounces to enter if you're looking for entry/reentry. Silver could manage a bounce above $14 before resuming it's selloff and gold could manage around $960 before turning lower, but bounces on either are not high enough probability to actually go long. For news Tuesday:

    0430 UK Industrial Production m/m - 0.2% expected - We haven't seen big deviations on this for awhile, and we've seen very little price action, so I'd like to play it safe and keep somewhat wider triggers just in case. Also look out and make sure the Manufacturing Production number comes out the same way.
    If it comes out at 1% or higher (+0.8 deviation), GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at -0.5% or lower (-0.7 deviation), GBP/USD should sell off 40 pips.

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