Forex Trading Signal 07/08/09

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey Folks,

Here is the video:

Nice video signal tonight. Better late then never, right? Anyways, UK Industrial Production yesterday hit our sell trigger, but exhibited it's typical pattern of blowing off it's downmove for the session and reversing. See the video for more on that. In trends right now, the GU and EU are asserting their downside, but still need to break those June 9th lows to really solidify the down trend... by then at some point, we should get a 3 wave rally which will be a good chance to get in short on position. For now, I prefer following the volatility on the 15 minute chart as I explain in the video to grab small chunks and maybe build a bit of a position as price surges around. Gold and silver are doing ok to the downside, but as I've been saying the last week or so, Silver should be an even better short than Gold, so seriously consider either doing both or moving into silver exclusively. Metals may see a decent bounce soon for another short entry, but it's not guaranteed.

Stocks have been some of the best calls in these signals lately, and the last week or so have been no exception. Yesterday's lows are right at the final threshold of the neckline for the S&P 500 and a clear break of those 878 lows should signal another major surge lower to around 800. It's possible we could manage some sort of short term bounce from here, and I hope we do for a great spot to add short, but the odds of that are looking lower and lower each passing day. I recommend getting short stocks one way or another (buy SDS, buy SEP SPY puts at the money, get short on ES futures) if there's a clear break of 878. For news Wednesday:

0400 UK Halifax House Prices m/m (0.3% expected) - Last month saw a good move on a big trigger, so let's watch out for this one again.
If it comes out at 2% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at -1.5% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off 30-40 pips.

2130 AU Unemployment Rate (expected at 5.9%) and Employment Change (expected at -20K) - I'm actually going to look at unemployment rate first and employment change second on this one. A decent surprise on either number would be a nice jolt for AUD/USD, but a conflict would be messy.
If Unemployment Rate comes out at 5.7% with Employment higher than -20K, or if Employment Change comes out at 10K or higher with Unemployment Rate near expectations, AUD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If Unemployment Rate comes out at 6.1% with Employment lower than -20K, or if Employment Change comes out at -50K or lower with Unemployment Rate near expectations, AUD/USD should sell off 40 pips.

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To our success,
Sir Pipsalot