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Forex Trading Signal 07/17/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Jul 17, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    The EUR/USD and GBP/USD worked in a bit of consolidative pattern over the last 24 hours and I'm still looking to position trade them long once they get a nicer dip back down around 1.4000 and into the 1.6200's respectively. Target is somewhere above their recent June/July highs to be determined, but should be at least 300-400 pips on EUR/USD and 500+ on GBP/USD.

    Well, the flip from risk aversion to risk appetite in stocks continued unfortunately without a big dip yesterday. The psychological lift today was when noted pessimist Nouriel Roubini turned optimistic on the recovery. Eventually I made the decision to bail my stock longs on the break up into the 930's. Hopefully a pullback does develop here in the coming day or two to help others get out of shorts who are waiting for more of a pullback, but since I personally was short from an average price of around 920, I wanted to take what I could get for it now in case that pullback doesn't come any time soon and a further short squeeze develops. If and when we get a pullback closer to 900-920, being completely out already frees us up to weigh in on a potential long there. Again, I believe the whipsaw we've seen this week is likely the first stage of a multi-stage rally that will take us into the 1000-1100 range on the S&P in the coming month or two, so even speculating long now isn't such a horrible idea if you do so with low leverage. It would likely take a clear impulsive move back down to and through the 870's to debunk the upside hypothesis, so for now, the clear opportunity is either a chaser position trade buy now at market (around 935 fair value as I write) with a wide SL, or a swing trade/optimal position trade long on a dip into the 900-920 range. I personally have not yet entered long (waiting for the situation to clear up and maybe pull back a bit) but I'll let you know once I do.

    In silver, the risk appetite rally has brought silver back up near $13.40 which is an ok place to initiate a position trade short if you're not in (it's where we entered the other week), but I would save some ammunition to add more on a rally to and through $14 which will likely come on the heels of the next leg of this stock market rally. A good place to target for a short on a larger pullback up is about $14.30. As long as stocks are bullish, silver should be stronger than gold and retrace higher with greater % gains. In news Friday:

    0700 CAD Core CPI m/m (0.0% expected) - Realistically guys, this news has performed very poorly and it's almost better to trade against the spike after it swings a good 15-20 pips. Both good deviations in the last 6 months have made 20 pips or less and reversed.

    0830 US Housing Starts m/m (530K expected) - This news has a better chance of getting some good price action, but still has been a bit hit or miss lately. A "miss" would mean maybe 40 pips on the EUR/JPY in 1-2 minutes followed by a reversal (see last month), while a "hit" would mean 40-50 pips in the first 1-2 minutes, some sort of pullback, and a 40-50 pip continuation from the pullback (see 2 months ago). If we get a surprise, we'll see which develops.
    If it comes out at 584K or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40+ pips.
    If it comes out at 480K or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 40+ pips.

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    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. Sam Nuku

    Sam Nuku Recruit

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    trading signals

    hi guys, i'm very new to trading signals etc & i actually thought that it was someone recommending buys/sells but it seems more like market commentary? any recommendations of some signal providers? thanks
     
  3. topone

    topone Recruit

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    moving average.

    Eurusd just moved down through the 90 day moving average. would this not indicate a 2-300 point decline before any upside?
     
  4. Real Managers

    Real Managers Banned again

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    try this

    You can try fasteconomicnews.com
     
  5. kamuta

    kamuta MQL45 Representative

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    2 Crazy Cat:
    I recomend you forget about long and go short... Why?
    $ index bounce from support 79.28... It will need extra power for EUR/USD and GBP/USD to go long... :)
     
  6. BenOm

    BenOm Private, 1st Class

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    create a fund

    To the attention of Sir PIPs,
    Thank you for sharing your insights with us.
    My problem is not the monthly fee of $299., but the possibility of the making mistakes in the process of opening trades based on your recommendation.
    Have you considered creating a fund and trading FOR the members for a fee?
    I understand that nothing is guaranteed, but I will have a much better chance when you trade directly for me (us), rather than I trading based on your recommendation.

    Regards,
    meaneradicator at yahoo dot com
     

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