Forex Trading Signal 07/20/09

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

It seems the stock market may be peaking out a bit short term, and will undergo a decent selloff soon, but will not break last week's lows. We might have one final spurt a bit higher Monday, but this big rally from last week should correct out a bit soon coming down somewhere into the 900-920 range as the week progresses. I actually bailed my shorts Thursday last week at the not so great price of 935 on the S&P (closed Friday at 940), but at that time the risk of a greater rally extention before this coming pullback was a bit too much for me to stomach. In any case, I welcome this pullback if/when it comes as it will set us up for a good place to go long in a number of markets.

Getting long on stocks for a final wave run-up of 10-15% as this pullback bottoms out sounds pretty good, but it should also provide opportunities for swing/position trade longs on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the next stage of advance. Last week I said 1.6200-1.6300 was a good spot to position long on GBP/USD and Friday it bottomed out at 1.6265. The 1.4000 target on EUR/USD never quite made it. If stocks do start a decent decline Monday or Tuesday, USD strength should come along with it. Once the EU, GU, and stocks all pull back and seem to be at or near support, that's when I'll recommend a long on all 3. I'm still thinking 1.4000 and 1.6200 ballpark for now. While it's possible we could see stocks and EU/GU move in different directions, I think it's a low probability given their good correllation over the past year.

Gold and silver should wiggle down a bit, but then up to higher highs much like stocks and the Euro will, but I prefer to hold those short through the volatility and add more short on a Silver rally above $14.

In news Friday, CAD CPI came out as expected, so no trade there, and US Housing Starts barely missed our buy EUR/JPY trigger, but managed a nice medium term move to an uptrend even though the short term action was pretty muted. There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday 7-20, but there is a 2130 release of Australia's RBA Meeting Minutes which we'll dig through in the Diamonds room just in case there are any surprises that might give a decent trade on the AUD/USD. Unfortunately, it's just not anything I can provide you guys with a valuable preview for. I'll definitely have more details for you on Tuesday's news though as that is easier to break down. Until then guys, take care.

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To our success,
Sir Pipsalot