Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
I hope you guys liked the little Haiku signal yesterday. Sorry if that annoyed anyone, but it just seemed as I was doing my prep work that I had very little to add to Tuesday's commentary, so I had some fun with it. Anyhow, in currencies, the EUR/USD finally had a nice pullback down near 1.4000 today which was the area in which I wanted to get long for the next swing to new highs. It's not a sure bet by any means, but with EUR/USD around 1.4050 right now, I think risking 70 pips or so for 200-500 pips off a potential renewd rally rally leg is worth it. If we trade down through 1.3990 decisively, the odds on the long diminish measurably, so I'm keeping my stop a bit below that.
Those of you who are either in the Diamonds room or follow my signals here know that I am both short on Gold and Silver on a long term position trade, and I've been looking to add to my Silver short here during this recent rally leg. My advice to those that are not short Silver has been to consider getting short either at 13.40, 14.00 or 14.30 and use the recent strength to build a position. In the last couple of days, we have seen a very clear impuslive decline that makes it very likely the bounce leg has either ended or is ending soon without significantly further retracement higher. So, again, I emphasize that shorting Silver particularly is a good opportunity at any price in this region, especially around those aforementioned levels. Ultimately, we're looking for a decline to or below $8. Because Silver will very likely see a steeper and cleaner decline than Gold, I do not recommend shorting gold unless you're already in it, and I think you should consider rolling over a gold short into a silver short or even considering a XAU/XAG long hedge type trade.
In stocks, it still looks more likely that we will have one last jump up to new highs on the market before we get that impending 1-3 week pullback decline, but this ending rally either has to start soon (next day or two), or it may just fail to materialize. This consolidation phase is starting to really mature and one way or the other we're going to get moving soon. I used the outlook from the last couple of days to buy the S&P as it was bouncing around on support today around 966 on the futures (970 live) since it seems like a good short to medium term hold with good reward (20-40 pts) vs risk (5-10 pts). If we do get that rally to new highs, it should top off somewhere in the 985-1005 range (I don't see it pushing too far past 1000), so that's where I'd be looking to cash out on any longs. I think a decisive break towards 960 and below means the 1-3 week pullback has started without the rally we're looking for and we should shift from buying on dips to selling on rallies.
In the news on Wednesday, the RBNZ kept interest rates unchanged, but a clearly very dovish comment sent the NZD/USD down quickly and has kept it under pressure at support. In news Thursday we have only one item:
0200 UK Nationwide House Prices m/m (0.2% expected) - You guys might not get this signal notification in time, and for that I apologize, day this report gets released is always uncertain until the last minute. I think a 0.8 trigger should work well on GY.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, GBP/JPY should gain 50 pips.
If it comes out at -0.6% or lower, GBP/JPY should fall 50 pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
I hope you guys liked the little Haiku signal yesterday. Sorry if that annoyed anyone, but it just seemed as I was doing my prep work that I had very little to add to Tuesday's commentary, so I had some fun with it. Anyhow, in currencies, the EUR/USD finally had a nice pullback down near 1.4000 today which was the area in which I wanted to get long for the next swing to new highs. It's not a sure bet by any means, but with EUR/USD around 1.4050 right now, I think risking 70 pips or so for 200-500 pips off a potential renewd rally rally leg is worth it. If we trade down through 1.3990 decisively, the odds on the long diminish measurably, so I'm keeping my stop a bit below that.
Those of you who are either in the Diamonds room or follow my signals here know that I am both short on Gold and Silver on a long term position trade, and I've been looking to add to my Silver short here during this recent rally leg. My advice to those that are not short Silver has been to consider getting short either at 13.40, 14.00 or 14.30 and use the recent strength to build a position. In the last couple of days, we have seen a very clear impuslive decline that makes it very likely the bounce leg has either ended or is ending soon without significantly further retracement higher. So, again, I emphasize that shorting Silver particularly is a good opportunity at any price in this region, especially around those aforementioned levels. Ultimately, we're looking for a decline to or below $8. Because Silver will very likely see a steeper and cleaner decline than Gold, I do not recommend shorting gold unless you're already in it, and I think you should consider rolling over a gold short into a silver short or even considering a XAU/XAG long hedge type trade.
In stocks, it still looks more likely that we will have one last jump up to new highs on the market before we get that impending 1-3 week pullback decline, but this ending rally either has to start soon (next day or two), or it may just fail to materialize. This consolidation phase is starting to really mature and one way or the other we're going to get moving soon. I used the outlook from the last couple of days to buy the S&P as it was bouncing around on support today around 966 on the futures (970 live) since it seems like a good short to medium term hold with good reward (20-40 pts) vs risk (5-10 pts). If we do get that rally to new highs, it should top off somewhere in the 985-1005 range (I don't see it pushing too far past 1000), so that's where I'd be looking to cash out on any longs. I think a decisive break towards 960 and below means the 1-3 week pullback has started without the rally we're looking for and we should shift from buying on dips to selling on rallies.
In the news on Wednesday, the RBNZ kept interest rates unchanged, but a clearly very dovish comment sent the NZD/USD down quickly and has kept it under pressure at support. In news Thursday we have only one item:
0200 UK Nationwide House Prices m/m (0.2% expected) - You guys might not get this signal notification in time, and for that I apologize, day this report gets released is always uncertain until the last minute. I think a 0.8 trigger should work well on GY.
If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, GBP/JPY should gain 50 pips.
If it comes out at -0.6% or lower, GBP/JPY should fall 50 pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
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