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Forex Trading Signal 07/31/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Jul 31, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Here is the video:
    07-31-2009.swf

    On the EUR/USD my buy recommendation from the last few weeks to buy near 1.4000 is working out well so far. Please watch the video by the way for all sorts of outlook and analysis on the Euro, Silver and Stock market moves both shorter term and especially longer term. Anyways, yesterday in my signal, I specifically recommended getting long EUR/USD and got long myself at 1.4020 on Thursday afternoon. How you manage the trade is up to you, but taking some profits now or soon above 1.4100 is a good idea and moving your SL to break even at that point is just good money management. Potential targets to the upside right now are 1.4300 and 1.4490. I will remain biased long on EUR/USD and GBP/USD and recommend buying on dips unless we start trading through recent lows (1.4000 on EUR/USD).

    We saw that fresh pop to new highs on the stock market I was calling for the last couple of days. I even wrote a Haiku about it on Wednesday's (7-29) signal, lol. Anyways, this move up has either topped out already, or more likely has a little more push in it before it turns around. I recommend scaling out of any longs now and I'm looking to actually get short to medium term short here if we get another push to or through 1000 on the S&P.

    Silver continues to be a good long term position trade short at current levels, but make sure you have the ability to add more on another rally above $14 or at least can withstand a $1-$2 SL looking for a long term selloff to $8 or below. There's a chance we'll rally above $14 again, possibly to the $14.30 or $14.60 levels and you can wait to short it there, but another bounce like that is not a guarantee.

    In news Thursday, we saw UK Nationwide House Prices come in better than expected hitting our buy trigger, and while the short term reaction was a bit lackluster, there was definitely supportive buying on dips and an eventual breakout high with plenty of profits if you chose to be patient with the trade. Not ideal price action, but definitely worked for us much more than against us. Friday there are 2 news items:

    0330 Swedish GDP q/q (-0.4% expected) - Only trade this one if you really know what you're doing. SEK pairs are strange animals.
    If it comes out at +0.2% or higher, EUR/SEK should fall 400+ pips
    If it comse out at -1.0% or lower, EUR/SEK should rally 400+ pips

    0830 US GDP Annualized Advance (-1.5% expected) - While this is a big deal type number with a lot of media and market attention, the advance GDP release has not translated into appropriately huge currency moves when it's hit big surprises this year. It's worth a trade no doubt, but not worth any more than your typical news trade. I recommend biasing yourself towards a buy so that you look for a little more profit on a long, and get more defensive looking to take profit faster on a short.
    If it comes out at -0.8% or higher, EUR/USD should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at -2.2% or lower, EUR/USD should sell off 30-40 pips.

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    To our success,
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. theluckyseven

    theluckyseven Recruit

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    The video

    Exceptional work mate!
     
  3. David Stedman

    David Stedman Recruit

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    Diamonds

    I paid to join the Forex Diamonds and it said there was a problem and I would be contacted. The money appears to have been paid, but I haven't been contacted with any info on how to use the service. Please advise
     
  4. cliff

    cliff Recruit

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    You said:

    If it comes out at -0.8% or higher, EUR/USD should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at -2.2% or lower, EUR/USD should sell off 30-40 pips.

    I was in a hurry and failed to check it. Of course, it's backwards. We wanted to SELL the EUR/USD if the loss was less than expected (as this would be good for the dollar), and BUY the EUR/USD if the loss was greater than expected.

    Again, I didn't double-check this. It came out at -1% and hit the trigger (within .2% of your suggested trigger), and I BOUGHT instead of SOLD - and lost 23 pips before I could get the trade stopped. I regained some on the retrace - I would have regained it all if I remained in longer.

    Oops.
     
  5. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    No, the triggers I put out were correct. Good US news actually weakens the USD right now since it leads to risk appetite. The reason why we got somewhat good news on that number, but EUR/USD went down was because a lot of other bad news came out at the same time (including a big down revision to the prior quarters number). In order to expect more reliable upside on the EUR/USD, I wanted to see it come in higher at at least -0.8% or less negative, but it only came in at -1.0%.
     
  6. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    So to recap... EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD etc will tend to rally on good news from the foreign pair (Europe, UK, AU) but will also rally on good US news as well. Conversely, bad news from either will usually cause weakness in those pairs.

    The reason why is liquidity. Risk appetite fuels liquidity which makes the USD weak, and risk aversion sucks away liquidity which makes the USD strong. This phenomenon helps to create the "all one market" scenario we've seen for the past year or so where the Euro, stocks, and commodities all generally move in the same direction. About 1-2 years ago good US economic news created USD strength, but that hasn't been true at all since Lehman hit last September.
     
  7. David Stedman

    David Stedman Recruit

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    Still haven't recieved information on the Forex Diamonds PipsAlot. Joined on the 27th of last month and the money has definately been paid to Elite Universe Inc via paypal. Should I just dispute the payment and try again? I am looking forward to the experience. Please advise.
     
  8. jabberwok

    jabberwok Recruit

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    thanks for this Forum!!

    :)
     
  9. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    send an email to payments@forexdiamonds.com to get the info you need and make sure your login is straightened out.
     

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