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Forex Trading Signal 08/03/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Aug 3, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Friday's price action managed to hold on to recent gains and avoid a selloff which means this final push to new highs is probably not quite over. My best guess is the S&P will muster another thrust taking it to or slightly through 1000 before blowing off this phase and taking a 1-3 week dip to recharge.

    The EUR/USD managed to tag 1.4300 Sunday evening hitting my main target for that EUR/USD long I called back on Wednesday/Thursday last week from 1.4045. Like the stock market, I think both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD will likely thrust even higher from current levels to blow off some steam above their 1.4335 and 1.6750 June daily chart highs. I don't have a clear target on the GU, but I'm thinking about 1.4500 on the EU, so that would probably correspond to about 1.7000 on the GU. Keep in mind though that these are ending moves in the bigger picture, so the bigger trend trade will be waiting for them to finish up and getting short on them. If the bigger turn south starts to come a bit early, I'll work hard to identify that possibility as quickly and clearly as I can.

    Silver has managed to follow markets back higher above $14, so it's looking like a better and better short as we rally into the $14.30 level or $14.60 area. Both are great spots in my opinion to enter short or add short to a long term position trade.

    In news on Friday we saw Swedish GDP come out only a bit better than expected (not quite hitting our sell triggers), but it was a runaway trade breaking nearby support on EUR/SEK and surging for over 1000 pips. The US GDP release was a mess with better than expected 2Q Advance numbers, but everything else was bad from Personal Consumption to a big negative revision to 1Q final numbers. In the end, we got some whipsaw action that resulted downwards for awhile, so thank goodness the 2Q Advance number missed our buy trigger by a bit. On Monday:

    1000 US ISM Manufacturing (46.5 expected) - This number has not performed very well in recent months, so I recommend holding out for a larger surprise in order to put a trade on. Sometimes this will push the USD/JPY more, and sometimes it will push the EUR/USD more... it's hard to say, so I recommend bridging the gap and trading EUR/JPY.
    If it comes out at 48.5 or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40-50 pips.
    If it comes out at 44.7 or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 40-50 pips.

    0030 (Monday night/Tuesday morning EST) AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (no change at 3.00% expected) - Economists are unanimously expecting no change, so any move will be a big surprise worth a trade. As far a the commentary is concerned, interest rate futures are pricing in a strong chance of a rate hike late this year or early next year, so any clear dovish hits to that outlook could create a selling opportunity from the statement itself.
    If they hike any amount, AUD/USD should rally 80+ pips.
    If they cut any amount, AUD/USD should sell off 100+ pips.

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  2. sinyo

    sinyo Recruit

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    the news come from US but why you recommend to trade on EUR/JPY
    how if I trade on EUR/USD?
     
    #2 sinyo, Aug 3, 2009
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2009
  3. gary L

    gary L Recruit

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    eur/usd

    Hello crazy cat,now is high 1.44310,will it from now start to drop slowly to 1.42000 till this coming Friday.or will it swim upstream somemore from today.Puzzle.please advice on this,tks.
     
    #3 gary L, Aug 3, 2009
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2009
  4. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Like I said, good ISM numbers would push EUR/USD and USD/JPY upwards in the same direction (hard to tell which one would work best though)... you could have chosen to buy either of those two pairs or followed my recommendation to buy EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY is the mathematical combination of those two pairs, so it's like going long on both at the same time. It works well for many US trades.

    For example, on this trade that came out much better than expected, EUR/JPY rallied 70 pips in the first 15 minutes, and 120 pips after 2 hours.

    Trust me on the pair selections... I do this for a living, lol
     
  5. sinyo

    sinyo Recruit

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    thank you :)
     

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