Forex Trading Signal 08/06/08

[Crazy Cat]

Hi there my Forex friend

Hi-Quality Preview/Review:
1) 8-6-2008r-p.swf

Let's first review what happened on Tuesday.

Actually this is very simple, everything came out as expected so officially we had no trades. Sir Pips lost a little on FOMC. Watch the video if you are really interested in it. Actually, I really recommend watching it since Sir Pips talks a lot about FOMC and U.S. economy. This is preview/review blended with his outlook videos.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, August 6th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Ivey PMI. Last month it deviated by +5 and we did not see much move at all. Nevertheless, I would try to trade it again. If it comes out at 66 or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and look for 30 pips move. On the other hand, if it comes out at 55 or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 30 to 35 pips move as well.

2. Wednesday, August 6th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m. we will have Employment Change out of New Zealand. We only get this number one a quarter. Last time we had -1.2 deviation and NZD/USD went down by 100 pips. It is expected to come out at 0.2 but the expectation range is pretty wide here. If it comes out at 0.7% or higher, I would buy NZD/USD and expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, I would sell NZD/USD and expect 40 pips as well.

3. Wednesday, August 6th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Employment Change out of Australia. If it comes out at +20 K or higher, I would buy AUD/USD and look for 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -10K or lower, I would sell AUD/USD and look for 40 pips move as well. However, keep in mind we will also have Unemployment Rate coming out. Higher unemployment is bad for Australian dollar, and lower unemployment rate is good for Australian dollar. It is expected to come out at 4.3%. If it deviates by 0.2, it is a significant deviation that may help move AUD up or down if it agrees with the Employment Change or screw everything up if it is conflicting.

That would be all for Wednesday.

Please watch the video. This time it is only one video with preview/review blended with the outlook forecast.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot & Crazy Cat



The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat

 

[Sir Pipsalot]

Let me share

Let me share with you guys an email I sent the Diamonds subscribers later on after the FOMC Interest rate statement in case this gives you guys an additional heads up for tonight's session:

Hey guys, Sir Pipsalot here.

The more I think about the FOMC statement and read into it, the more strongly I feel that it was an undercover dovish event and that it may lead to that round of USD weakness we were looking for. Below is a link for pdf (I was not able to attach my doc file so I uploaded it to server so you can access it there) comparing it with the previous statement and offering my commentary on the second page. Long story short, I expect the USD to be weak on the back of this at least for the Euro session tonight, and maybe we'll be getting that EUR/USD retracement to the 1.57-1.58 range we've been looking for along with similar pullbacks on other USD pairs. Nothing's certain here though, if the big money sees what I see in this report, they could choose to sell commodities instead of USD which might help keep USD propped up, but with increasing focus on a potentially hawkish ECB statement coming up in 2 days, I think getting short the USD on most pairs is a great strategy for now. I just couldn't wait for the next trade to get this out to you guys.

Here is the pdf file:
http://homepage.mac.com/matwoj/fpa/fomc.pdf

Good luck!
Sir Pipsalot

 

[damonl]

thanks again.....

have a nice day off. I have been a little off lately too, but only because of my day job. I have a good strategy, but the market has been pretty tough this week during london and money would have been made during new york of course while I am working.

It sucks because then i leave for work with a loss for the day knowing that i will not have a chance to recover because of my day job.

anyway, just rambling also, but I realize the imoportance of doing this full time because the breakout will happen sometime during the day even if it is 40-50 pips on eurusd, but if i am not around to recover any losses taken trying to catch the move, then i am left with a loss. for the last two days I was down about 4% each day, but would have recoverd during new york....too hard to tell which session the market will move.

better times are ahead and thanks again.......

 

[goodfella]

Thanks for posting the pdf, and offering your analysis. It was interesting to see the 2 FOMC reports and compare them. I think your analysis could be reading a bit too much into the statement, as it clearly states that inflation is of a significant concern, and the outlook is uncertain. I would interpret it more as a confirmation of what was uncertain in the previous report..and also with one member voting for raising rates, I can't see any real indication of a rate cut.

Energy prices are still highly volatile, and they can reverse quickly. The oil price has retraced $20 in a matter of days and it only takes a few more rumours or bad news out of Iran, Israel or Nigeria to send oil back up to recent highs. If oil continues to pull back, getting short the dollar would be a risky trade given the way that the the prices of oil and the US dollar have moved in recent months.

 

[sleuth]

Monday, August 6th, 2008

on which calendar is August 6th, 2008 a Monday ?

 

[Sir Pipsalot]

Sir Pipsalot: 08/06/2008 09:43 AMEuro vs US Dollar USD continues to advance in session, strength attributed to chatter that German Q2 GDP growth will be negative- Press reports have circulated over the last 24 hours that the German Q2 GDP will be -1.0% and reportedly German officials noting that it could come in between -0.75% to -1.5%

 

[goodfella]

I think getting short the USD on most pairs is a great strategy for now. I just couldn't wait for the next trade to get this out to you guys.

I hope nobody went with this trade..they would have been punished. Short Eur or AUD..that would've been a good trade AUD trading below 90 cents after being at .985, 900 pips!

 

[Sir Pipsalot]

Well, the rumor on negative GDP and trichet's speech obviously axed this well before the big plunge. With medium to long term fundamental trades, you have to be careful about other surprise news coming out.