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Forex Trading Signal 08/11/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Aug 11, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    It looks like the EUR/USD and GBP/USD sell off has now traced out a complete 5 waves down, which helps to both further confirm the new downtrend, but also gives pause for a bit of a breather/retracement now off of those lows. I'm not quite sure how much the EUR/USD will retrace, but my best guess is somewhere around 1.4200 it may start to become a good sell again, but it end up pulling as high as 1.4315 depending on the manner in which it advances. If you're looking to play this potential short term bounce, or looking for a good spot to resell, I think 1.4200 is a good target, and probably 1.6635 on the GU.

    Stocks are holding up stubbornly without making lower lows, so while a larger turn lower towards the 950 area is coming soon, unless we can confirm that with a lower low below 993 on the S&P, this move could extend to modest new highs first. If we do rally to new highs tomorrow, that will probably force EU and GU into a steeper retracement higher targeting 1.6800 and 1.4315 before turning lower.

    Silver and gold's downside looks decently underway, but they will likely either consolidate or have small retraces along with the EUR/USD.

    Be careful betting long though on retraces amidst a downtrend (i.e. use tight stops)... Such retraces are not guaranteed to be large, nor are they always necessary (sometimes a period of consolidation takes over instead of a retracement). It's always best to trade along with the trend so my recommendation while the trend is down is to let the bounces happen, then find good shorts off of them, that way the trend will help you make money eventually even if your timing is off initially.

    In news Monday, we got that Chinese data ahead of schedule, and the lower industrial production amongst other indicators helped the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY sell off 46 pips and 71 pips respectively over the course of an hour. I'm sorry I didn't get a chance to preview this trade for you guys, but I thought it wasn't coming out unitl Tuesday evening (I think they moved it up a day). With that out of the way, there's no real tradable economic news due out Tuesday, so we'll gear up for Wednesday's big trades tomorrow night.

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