Forex Trading Signal 08/12/09

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
753
Hey folks,

Here is the video:
08-12-2009.swf

On the EUR/USD it still seems likely we'll get a bit more retracement up before the downtrend resumes, but it's not a guarantee. On the GBP/USD things could go either way today based on the news, so we'll have to wait and see how the BoE Quaterly Inflation Report comes out. If you're not in short for a position trade but would like to enter, I'd hold out for a bit of a bounce first just in case we get one (watch the video for more detail and analysis on both of these pairs).

On Stocks (I totally forgot to review stocks in the video, sorry), we got a selloff to that key 993 level on the S&P, so all we really need is a break of yesterday's lows to signal that wave B down has taken hold. Essentially, a break of 993 should see 968, then potentially 925-950 before we see new highs. I'm personally in short from about 1000 and 1013 looking to TP 1/2 at 970 and the other half I'll exit discretionally and let you know when.

In Gold and Silver, we're seeing ok price action back off their retracement highs. Nothing new here... get short if you're not in and add short on bounces if you are in. We're close enough to those retracement highs (that likely will not be exceeded) to warrant some shorter term position trades or swing trades as well with tighter stops. In news Wednesday, we've got a couple of key reports:

0430 UK Claimant Count Change (28K expected) & ILO Unemployment Rate (7.7% expected) - If both of these come out low, that should be GBP bullish, and if both come out high, that should be GBP bearish, but this indicator has a habit of spiking and reversing hard, so I don't recommend trading along with it as the markets anticipate the bigger UK news just an hour later. If anything I might look for a spike reversal if it looks ideal.

0530 BoE Inflation Report - This report comes out once every 3 months and is usually a very big mover. The markets will focus on the expansion in their Asset Purchase Facility (APF) allocation and why they expanded it by 50 billion pounds, and also what their growth/inflation outlooks are for the 3rd quarter. Of course, their overall optimism or pessimism will likely be the main driver of sustained price action.
If they are relatively optimistic on growth and positive inflation, and/or not going to seek more APF money in the future, GBP/USD should rally 50+ pips.
If they are resoundingly pessimistic on growth, worried about deflation, or hinting at further expansions to APF allocation, GBP/USD should sell off 50+ pips.

0800 Norway Interest Rates (no change at 1.25% expected) - Only trade Norway news once you have a little experience with the NOK currency.
If they hike rates, EUR/NOK will sell off 1000+ pips
If they cut rates, EUR/NOK will rally 1000+ pips

1415 US FOMC Interest Rate Statement (no change at 0-0.25% expected) - Since there is essentially zero chance they will change interest rates, I'm going to focus my preview more on the statement itself. The things the market will be focused upon is:
1) Their plans for the current $1.75 billion total Quantitative Easing (QE),
2) Willingness and timeline for withdrawing liquidity from their special programs (exit strategy),
3) Hints at when they're planning to raise interest rates, and
4) General level of optimism or pessimism on growth, inflation, and the economy.
Keep in mind that we may be in a period of transition where the USD will react differently to US news than it may have in the past year or so, so if you want to play it safe, wait for the first 5 minutes of price action to complete, and if there's a clear move, follow that direction on either the EUR/USD or USD/JPY for 30-50 pips.
A) If they come out optimistic on growth and positive inflation, and are looking to reduce QE, withdraw liquidity, or raise rates sooner than expected, USD/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
B) If they come out optimistic on growth and positive inflation, and are looking to uphold or increase QE, liquidity, and low interest rates very dovishly, EUR/USD should rally 50+ pips
C) If they come out pessimistic on growth and/or worried about deflation, and are looking to uphold or increase QE, liquidity, and low interest rates very dovishly, USD/JPY should sell off 50+ pips
D) If they come out pessimistic on growth and/or worried about deflation, and are looking to reduce QE, withdraw liquidity, or raise rates sooner than expected, EUR/USD should sell off 50+ pips.

0200 (on Wed night/Thurs morning EST) German GDP q/q Preliminary (-0.2% expected) - This news usually creates a fairly reliable move of 30-40 pips on the EUR/USD, but I feel it could get even more this month.
If it comes out at 0.1% or higher, EUR/USD should rally 30-40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.5% or lower, EUR/USD should sell off 30-40 pips.

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Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.

To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
 

matjazz

Recruit
Messages
7
What the ****????? Secret news weapon SUX!!!! I ****ing lost all my ****ing account at all ****ing brokers becouse you entered wrong signal!!!!
 

JesseFPAF

Recruit
Messages
1
I am confused when signals are received.

Hello all. New here and I am trying to follow signals and thinking about joining the diamonds. I have not received the signals for today via email and do not see todays signals on the FPA forum. When are they usually sent? I have been following for a few days and followed the signal for today that was attached to yesterdays signals about the GDP but I thought Sirpipsalot sends daily emails. Any help on this would be greatly appreciated.
 

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
What the ****????? Secret news weapon SUX!!!! I ****ing lost all my ****ing account at all ****ing brokers becouse you entered wrong signal!!!!
When I talked to the SNW guys about it, what it boils down to is one of their news providers sent them some bad data and it happened to be the fastest to arrive. The SNW is a tool, and once in awhile due to factors it cannot completely control like a mistake from the news agencies, it can have a mess up like that. Realistically, the SNW hasn't misfired or had a mistake like that in over a year, and that's a very impressive safety record.

When I used to trade more actively with the weapon, I had it built into my risk management to be able to survive a weapon misfire or accidentally setting it up wrong myself and taking a big spike trade loss about once every 2 months.

In any case, if you're trading so heavy that one screwed up trade will blow up your account... eventually you will blow up your account. So stop with the blame game and take some personal responsability. I think it went over 600 trades without a mishap, which is amazing considering all the junk that comes through the pipe that they worked hard to filter out.

I don't blindly endorse them or have any financial ties to their business or anything, and I'm not trying to make it seem like what happened wasn't a bad thing, but I think Wednesday's mishap should be taken with some perspective.
 

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
why no signal today for 08/13/09 :unhappy:
I wrote a signal last night and finished it around 0300am EST, but for some reason it never got published properly. I just put it up there for record's sake and am finishing typing up Friday the 14th's signal now.
 
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