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Forex Trading Signal 08/24/09

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Aug 24, 2009.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    I'm going to be pretty busy this week attending some seminars, so I'm probably going to have to mix in some short and sweet nightly signals here and there for a few days, but tonight's signal is full and comprehensive. As far as trends are concerned, the EU and GU managed a rally a bit through the prior week's highs, but I'm not as sure we're going to get a turnaround south at these levels as I was last week. Because stocks have so resoundingly started their final thrust upwards, it places a bit of risk appetite pressure on the USD and puts the outlook on the Euro and GBP in a bit of a pickle where I'm not sure if 1.4450 on the Euro will be breached before a turn lower or if we'll get that turn sooner. When I see something more clear for the short term there, I'll let you know in the daily signals, but I'm holding my longer term position trade short and fading on rallies for now. The basic gist is, the Euro and GBP should turn lower, it's just a matter of when, and from where? Hopefully soon!

    Stocks definitely started their final rally leg a bit earlier than expected and that leg is well underway. We still could have quite a bit to go upwards before it's complete, but once it's over, we're going to have a VERY major reversal down to around 400 on the S&P. If you're a strickly long term player, you may want to start fading this rally to get in short. If you're playing the shorter term upside, the likely target range is 1050 to 1075 or so. Once we get up there we'll be able to better see if there's even more short term upside potential or if it's time to start loading up short for the short, medium and long run.

    Gold and Silver are in a similar pickle along with the USD mixed pressures. The longer term trend is pretty clearly down, but this week could see a move higher before lower potentially. Once things clear up a bit on the short term I'll update that in a subsequent daily signal... but the 990 and 15.20 levels on Gold and Silver should not give way even if we do head higher first. I'm continuing to hold Silver and Gold long term short and I'm fading rallies on Silver.

    For the nice short term news opportunities, we do have one possibility on Monday:

    0830 CAD Retail Sales (headline) expected at 0.2% -- I think we should play this one safe and look for a 1.0% deviation to get a nicer move out of this indicator. Surprises less than that have been able to move USD/CAD about 20 pips, but not much more... so I'd prefer to trade something larger to make it worth our while.
    If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, USD/CAD should sell off 30 pips.
    If it comes out at -0.8% or lower, USD/CAD should rally 30 pips.

    The other worthwhile news releases I plan on previewing and trading this week are:

    Tuesday 8-25
    1000 US Consumer Confidence

    Wednesday 8-26
    0400 German IFO
    1000 US New Home Sales

    Thursday 8-27
    0830 US GDP Annualized (Prelim)

    Friday 8-28
    0430 UK GDP q/q

    TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
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    To our success,
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. onu29t

    onu29t Recruit

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    Thanks for the signals, what do you mean by fading on rallies? And are you able to have a look at the Hangseng when you get a chance?

    Cheers
     
  3. Soluwat

    Soluwat Recruit

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    Thanks

    Thanks for the signal. Forexdiamond.com site isn't going through
     
  4. barry101

    barry101 Private

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    S&p 400

    Is that a mis-print, or did you really mean 400? If so, that's a VERY big call, which I hope never happens.
     
  5. onu29t

    onu29t Recruit

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    Is this S&P 400 call derived from technical or fundamental? Could you give us your evaluation on why it should head that far down.
     
  6. gpir

    gpir Private

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    where's the signal for 25th august i received via email but no link for it...
     
  7. gpir

    gpir Private

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    i'll give it a go with my signal >>U.S Consumer Confidence 10:00am edt 25th August 47.9 forecast trade with a 4 trigger eur/jpy

    if it comes out at 52 or better eur/jpy should rally 30-35 pips possibly more over a 20 minute time frame.

    if it comes out at 44 or less than eur/jpy should sell off 30 -35pips possibly more over a 20 minute time frame.

    Seems like the move either rally or sell off will be over a 20minute time frame looking at the history on this.So this should maintain a longer extended gain in my opinion.

    Since sirpipsalot hasn't posted the signal for this morning The above is what i think might happen

    cheers and good luck..
     
  8. albertomg

    albertomg Recruit

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    Why EUR/JPY?

    gpir, why you use EUR/JPY for an US announcement?

    I will use an 3 point trigger too, but in USD/JPY for 50pips, since in the last release wiht a deviation of 2,5 point it moved 66pips in 90mins

    and in case the deviation is greater than 3 point I will put an EUR/USD for 30pips.

    We miss you sirpipsalot!

    Good Luck!
     
  9. gpir

    gpir Private

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    albertomg, don't know how long u been news trading but i have for quite sometime the eur/jpy seems to be the longest most sustained mover for u.s announcements over the past 3-4months or even longer.Go thru some of the history and you'll see for yourself.Don't mean to be rude but if you've been news trading for a while you wouldn't have asked me that question.I used to use the usd/jpy for u.s announcements in the past but found that they don't move as much as the eur/jpy

    anywayz cheers and good luck with your plan

    p.s.. i think a 4 trigger is a safer bet...
     
  10. albertomg

    albertomg Recruit

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    That's OK gpir,
    I 'm not new to news trading, but I'm very far to be an expert. I never tried my self to cross trading a news release. Many thanks for sharing your experince and your signal.
     

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