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Forex Trading Signal 09/04/08

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Crazy Cat, Sep 4, 2008.

  1. Crazy Cat

    Crazy Cat Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hi there my Forex friend :)

    Hi-Quality Preview/Review + Long-term Outlook:
    1) 9-04-2008r-p.swf

    Let's review what happened on Wednesday.

    UK Services PMI came out much higher than expected and GBP/USD moved by 40 pips. We also had a very nice retracement and then the price went even higher.

    Canadian Interest Rate statement came out as expected. The statement was very neutral as well so USD/CAD started moving down.

    Let's talk about Thursday.

    1. Thursday, September 04th, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN
    At 3:30 a.m. we will have Swedish Interest Rate statement. 60% of economists expect a hike, and the other 40% expect them to keep the rates unchanged. If they hike the rates, I would sell EUR/SEK and look for 300 to 400 pips, maybe more. If they hold the rates steady, I would buy EUR/SEK and expect 400 pips move as well. I like reports when I know for sure we will have a trade.

    2. Thursday, September 04th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
    At 4:00 a.m. we will have UK Halifax House Price index m/m. This is not a great report to trade but if you are around, you can trade it. If it comes out at -2.5% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY. If it comes out at -1.0% or less negative, I would buy GBP/USD or GBP/JPY. In either case, I would expect 20 to 35 pips move.

    3. Thursday, September 04th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
    At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate statement. It is expected it will come out at 5.00. If they hike the rates, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 80 pips move. If they cut the rates, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 80 pips move as well.

    4. Thursday, September 04th, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
    At 7:45 a.m. we will have Interest Rate statement out of Euro zone. Only one economist expect them to cut the rates so most likely they will hold the rates at expected. If they cut the rates, I would sell EUR/USD and expect 70 pips move. If they hike the rates, I would buy EUR/USD and expect 70 pips move as well.

    5. Thursday, September 04th, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
    At 8:15 a.m. we will have U.S. ADP. I would be very careful about it because we will have Trichet speaking 15 minutes later. I would use 80K triggers here. If it comes out at -100K or lower (more negative), I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at +60K, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips move as well.

    6. Thursday, September 04th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
    At 8:30 a.m. we will have Trichet speaking. Please watch the video for more details.

    7. Thursday, September 04th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
    At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing. It is expected to come out at 49.5. I would be trading it with 1 trigger (unless there was a huge move caused by Trichet's speech). If it comes out at 50.5 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 48.5, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips as well.

    That would be all for Thursday.

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    -Sir Pipsalot & Crazy Cat



    The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
    For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
     
  2. yapkot

    yapkot Recruit

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    First and last

    time I take your advice.
    If SWE hikes rate to 4.75 sell eur/sek and expect 400 pips move. You meant buy, huh? Thanks for costing me $400. ****ing drunk waterhead
     
  3. john p k fowoyo

    john p k fowoyo Recruit

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    time frame

    I am in Nigeria. Had been studing your forecast. Very encouraging. One of My problem now is that Nigeria time zone is 5 hours ahead New York time, yet each time I read your forecast, the diference is just one hour. If I Want to trade, which of these time differences do I use? More questions later but thank for expected reply.
    John F.
     
  4. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    What the heck is a waterhead? C'mon, if you're going to flame me you can at least make sense with your insult. Trading involves risk buddy... if you traded the release, the hike did push EUR/SEK down 200-250 pips right away, but then it was followed by one of the most dovish statements I've EVER seen which reversed the trade long. In this case, the commentary conflicted with the actual decision so drastically it was ridiculous. Sometimes weird stuff like that happens. In the diamonds room we saw that and chose to stay out.
     

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