Forex Trading Signal 09/05/08

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hi there my Forex friend :)

Hi-Quality Preview/Review + Long-term Outlook:
1) 9-05-2008.swf It was a crazy day, was not?

Every single report came out close to expectations or as expected.

One interesting thing was Interest Rate out of Sweden. They did hike the rates but the commentary right after the report caused the price to move the other way. Why? It was one the most dovish statements we ever saw. Therefore, there was a conflict. If not the dovish statement, I believe EUR/SEK would hit our target.

I saw one guy, Yapkot, complaining under yesterday's signal. Well, I [Crazy Cat] tell you something: I lost more than Yapkot lost because I don't just post the signals, I do trade them. What really screw me up was not the whipsaw itself but my own mistake - I did not notice the spread was 200 pips on EUR/SEK. Oanda rose the spread from 20 to 100 pips a minute before the report and I *did* think that was it. But right before the report they rose the spread by additional 100 pips from 100 pips to 200 pips. Such high spread + the dovish statement caused a loss of... 300 pips, or 3.5% of my account. Well, 300 pips sounds crazy but 1 pip on EUR/SEK does not equal to 1 pip on GBP/USD or EUR/USD in terms of value per pip. Still, that was a huge loss but with 3.5% loss, which is probably one of the biggest loss I had, I can move on especially that I am up about 1200% since new year. Yes, I mismanaged it a bit too, I did not notice the conflict was that significant....

So yes, trading can be risky but what really counts is how many winning trades versus losing trades you have, and how much % risk you want to apply on your live account. No one can expect me or Sir Pips to be 100% right.

In the Diamonds room Sir Pips noticed the conflict so they did not enter an afterspike trade.

Another note on the ISM Non-Manufacturing: those who had the Diamonds subscription could benefit from my revision to the Daily Signal I posted in the Diamonds room. I gave it second look, and I revised the profit target (20 pips max, probably less) and said not to trade it if spread was higher than 5 on USD/JPY. In my case spread was 7 so it was a no trade. I know I did not post it here but I made the correction right before the report and there would not be enough time to post it here. This is one of the reason why having the Diamonds subscription can be beneficial. I hope you exited close to BE here.

EUR/USD going down is another story. Sir Pips did not have too much luck with the Bernanke speech - the first trade was losing because Bernanke misspoke something, causing him to enter long on a fake signal. They made up some money later but still it was a bad luck here which is another thing what happens when you trade the news. You have to be aware that sometimes what you read or hear is not necessarily the truth and later on it can be corrected (whereas you are stuck with your open trade), or you can simply misinterpret something and simply make a bad judgement. Some people simply say: **** happens, and that's why applying right money management is very important. That bad trade cost me only about 0.3% of my account, and I made up some later on.

Trading is like a baseball game: long and boring, yet exciting, and you wake up for 50 reports a month but most of the time you hit the ball with no score (no deviation or spread to high). But every time the ball is in motion, the score may change. Today my broker had a home run, fine, but this is not the end of the game. In fact, so far I have so many more points that this one home run does not change anything. Tomorrow we will have another inning, and we will see if there is going to be a home run: who knows, maybe I will hit the ball up to the sky....... causing my broker to swear a lot. :)

I am here to help you but still use your own judgement and adjust your strategies accordingly.

Watch the video for a lot of interesting informations.

OK, let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, September 05th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Employment Change. It is expected to come out at 10K. Sir Pips recommends to trade it with 20K triggers (which is a bit higher than usually we have), mostly due to very big price moves we saw today. If it comes out at -10K or more negative, Sir Pips would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move. If it comes out at 30K or higher, he would sell EUR/CAD and expect 50 pips move. Well, I think I am going to be a bit more aggressive on it (and this advice is for SNW users only). Will I make money? I hope so. I would enter smaller trades with 15K trigger on EUR/CAD either direction, or much bigger bigger trades with 25K trigger, also on EUR/CAD, and I will be closing my trades as soon as possible. Watch out for the Unemployment Change which may always conflict.

2. Friday, September 05th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. It is expected to come out at -75K with the estimated range of -150K to -40K. I would use 75K trigger on this, which is a big trigger but this is a very risky report to trade so bigger trigger is greatly appreciated. If it comes out at -150K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY, looking for 70 pips move. If it comes out at 0K or positive, I would buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD or sell GBP/USD and expect 70 pips move as well. 40 or 50K may work but you need to have a lot of experience to trade with such triggers. The Unemployment rate is a very important factor too. A deviation of 0.2 can either help or crew you up, depending if it is helping or conflicting. Watch out for the revision from the previous month which also can influence the price action.

3. Friday, September 05th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Ivey PMI. It we had Non-Farm Payroll or Canadian Employment deviating a lot, skip it. If they came out as expected, then you can try to trade it. A trigger of 4 should be tradable. If it comes out at 66 or higher, I would sell USD/CAD. If it comes out at 58 or lower, I would buy USD/CAD, and I would expect 30 pips price action.

That would be all for this week.

Sirpipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 7-days FREE TRIAL. Go to Forex Diamonds to sign up for the FREE trial. This offer is for NEW customers only.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot & Crazy Cat

The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat
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Re:posting Signals

Hi Crazy Cat!

Indeed your "name" has reflected your deed in this situation by acting crazily hence, putting some fellas in a mess.

Let me inform you that in my Yoruba language in Nigeria, we have an adage that says "money is synonymous to the nasal hair which is not easy to uproot, but any attempt to uproot it, leads to tears freely flowing from the lachrymal glands". This in effect means that it is a painful act.

Kindly put a round peg in a round hole to avoid a repetition of this crazy act in future because, a stitch in time saves nine.

AbdulAzeez I.T. Afolabi.


Private, 1st Class
I traded the EUR/SEK also

:confused:I traded the EUR/SEK and then I got 200 Pips on mi favor and did nothing, then the Pair when the opposite way 500 pips and then did nothing again, I said I am going to wait, I went back to sleep for few hours and then the market came back , to about 8 Pips against me, I close the trade, then I did not want to wait to get even, I almost got even I went to jump in
other trade EUR/USD going south.



To I.t Afolabi

ALBET, this is a free servie, ure not paying for this, and uve been warn that u re still liable to scam, beta go in there(diomon). meanwhile if u cant afford to loss this a wrong buss for u already. pls beta watch ur back.