Forex Trading Signal 10-01-2009

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
Hey folks,

I wish I could give you guys something more concrete, but we still have yet to really get a push one way or the other just yet. Short term, the risks to both directions are fairly balanced but longer term we're going to be heading much lower (on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Silver, Stocks), so as long as there's a decent chance this could be the top, it's worth holding short or finding chances to get short at good prices. Right now I'm willing to continue to give the Euro a wide berth and let some further downside develop. I'll let you know if the picture starts to change. On stocks, the short term picture is also mixed, but the long term weekly chart 3 wave rally off the March lows is so well developed and ripe for a selloff, if you're short via put options (like I am) it's probably worth holding onto longer term no matter what happens over the next couple of weeks in equities.

***Note -- As I was writing this we had a bit of verbal intervention from the EU's Alumnia saying they're going to bring up Euro appreciation at this weekend's G7. This has helped tilt the short term bias towards USD strength and may get our positions moving today.

In news Wednesday, we had US ADP come out a bit too close to expectations; however there was a big move around that time due to some SNB intervention on the CHF. The big order flows involving the Swiss intervention ended up overshadowing a better than expected GDP reading as well. In news Thursday:

0428 UK Manufacturing PMI (50.2 expected) - The last two months have seen some nice action off this indicator. I'm not sure we'll get a repeat, but on deviations of 1.8 and higher, we've seen moves of about 70-80 pips where the first minute only goes 20-40. It might be worth chasing it during that first minute and expect some follow through for the first 3-15 minutes.
If it comes out at 52.0 or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at 48.4 or lower, GBP/USD should fall 40+ pips.

0830 US Personal Spending m/m (1.1% expected) It's been awhile since we've seen a surprise on Personal Spending, but if we do (and avoid major conflicts on Personal Income, and PCE Core) we should get a nice move. Lately, picking the pair for trading US news has been very tough to be sure on, so feel free to move to a different pair if things aren't working out.
If it comes out at 1.6% or higher, EUR/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.6% or lower, EUR/USD should sell off 40 pips.

1000 US ISM Manufacturing (54 expected) - I plan on skipping this one because lately ISM numbers haven't gotten much reaction on currencies (only 20-25 pips or so on USD/JPY, and little to nothing on EUR/USD), and with USD/JPY not reacting well to news in the last week or so, it doesn't look like a very good opportunity.
 

axcend

Recruit
Messages
3
I know this is probably a newbie question, but I am very new to trading so please bare with me. Where can I go to see the UK Manufacturing PMI? Thanks for your time!
 
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axcend

Recruit
Messages
3
Thank you!! Your advice is absolutely awesome and I am learning a whole lot. I plan on joining your chat room and site in the next week or 2 when I get my first withdrawel from my account :)
 

Hoang Tien

Recruit
Messages
2
Good chance to entry market today

Hi all,

Thought there is a good chance to entry market today:

Short:

GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/CHF, CAD/JPY, USD/JPY, NZD/JPY...

Good luck !
 

axcend

Recruit
Messages
3
I have another quick question. On an earlier post either sunday or monday, you said that the USD/CAD was a good investment and your stop level was below 1.06 I have a bottom support line that is at 1.0590 and I was wondering if you think that they USD/CAD is going to drop anymore, or if it has already bottomed out. The lowest it has gone is around 70-80 pips from that bottom goal if your selling. And now its been slowly going back up, so I am not sure without to go ahead and close my order or if its just a minor adjustment before it continues on its downhill path. Thank you!
 

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Messages
511
I have another quick question. On an earlier post either sunday or monday, you said that the USD/CAD was a good investment and your stop level was below 1.06 I have a bottom support line that is at 1.0590 and I was wondering if you think that they USD/CAD is going to drop anymore, or if it has already bottomed out. The lowest it has gone is around 70-80 pips from that bottom goal if your selling. And now its been slowly going back up, so I am not sure without to go ahead and close my order or if its just a minor adjustment before it continues on its downhill path. Thank you!
I am actually still long in a position trade on the USD/CAD with a SL below 1.0600. How far below is I guess up to you. It's obviously run down a bit, but I'm trying to hold through the run for a potential reversal before we make new lows. The main problem has been Oil which has been stubbornly rallying since inventory data on Wednesday. This has helped the CAD be a major relative strength winner over the last couple of days. If the USD as a whole makes a nice upwards thrust and oil cools off, we should see a resumption of USD/CAD upside that has some longer term implications and that's what I'm trying to play there.
 

Johnfa

Private, 1st Class
Messages
60
Hi all,

Thought there is a good chance to entry market today:

Short:

GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/CHF, CAD/JPY, USD/JPY, NZD/JPY...

Good luck !
WOW.... unbelievable! all of them are falling.

Great, keep it going on Hoang Tien,

Thanks so much!
 
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