Forex Trading Signal 10/11/07

Felix Homogratus

Commander in Chief
This is Felix.

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon.

Let's first review what happened today.

Earlier today we had only one report coming out that we were watching and possibly trading, and that was the Australian employment change. As you could see, it did not hit my trigger as it came out 13,000, and my trigger was 5,000 or below. There was also a conflicting number on the unemployment rate. The AUD/USD did not do much either. That was definitely a no trade.

Let's now talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, October 11th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA & CANADA
Tomorrow we will have a trade balance coming out of the USA and Canada, both at 8:30 a.m. Normally I trade them, but this time I am skipping them. Most of people don't care about U.S. trade balance. Canadian trade balance, however, used to be a good indicator but last month we saw a huge drop by 1.3 B as it was expected to come out at 5 B, and it came out at 3.7 B. We saw no price action at all. You can go to our calendar on ForexBastards website, and if you click on the file, you can see history charts for this indicator. As you can see there, although last month the deviation was 1.3 B, and U.S. trade balance came out as expected, USD/CAD went up 15 pips, and then it dropped by a lot more. It seems that the trade balance is not in focus right now so I don't want to take any unnecessary risk, and trade something that is not hot. I suggest you to skip this one.

2. Thursday, October 11th, 2007 (5:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then we will have retail sales coming out of New Zealand. The number to focus on will be retail sales headline number as the core number has very little importance here. It is expected it will come out at 0.4%. If it comes out at 0.1% or below, that would be a second month in a row with a very low reading, and I think we may see NZD/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the retail sales comes out at 0.7% or higher, we may see NZD/USD gaining 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Support and resistance levels as well as the amount of deviation will be important for this indicator, especially a support level on the downside. What is more, we may even see a 50 pips move if the deviation is bigger than 0.3% either direction but I think 30 pips is a very safe target here. Skip the spike, wait when the price retraces, and I would try to get in within 10 to 15 pips of the pre-release price, or maybe even as much as 20 pips if the deviation is huge like 1.00 or higher.

* Report: New Zealand Trade Balance
* Sell on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.1% or lower
* Buy on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.7 or higher
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

That would be all for tomorrow.

If you haven't been to my website, I strongly recommend you to go there. This is my live trading service, and you can trade live with me and one of my partners. Currently I am offering 21 days trial for that service, so go to that web page, and read about it. I definitely think everybody should at least try that service, and at least learn something during that 21 days.

I hope we will make some money on the retail sales. Good luck, and thank you very much.

To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus
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Hey Felix, I was just wondering if you do any trades besides news trading. Right now, I exclusively trade your signals, and nothing else. Sometimes I go a whole week without a single trade. Do you do other trades when the news isn't doing much?


news report

thanks felix for all ur signals,please i wana ask ,what re the links that i can use to get instant news when it is released the links i v are alittle slow may be about 10 mins after it would v been released can u please help me on this so that i wont be missing trades every time.


my interpretation of felixs info

1. Thursday Oct. 11, 2007 (8:30 pm New York Time) USA

Trade Balance Forecast -58.8B Previous -59.2B

A number of news releases coming out at 8:30 am, including
a CANADIAN Trade Balance. The idea is to concentrate only on one
currency pair, and don't try to get in on everything together and
all at once. If there are conflicts with the numbers, then there
would be a NO Trade based on these numbers.

Our focus will be on the Trade Balance. The Trade Balance is the
difference between the monetary value of exports and imports in an
economy over a certain period of time. A positive balance of trade
is known as a trade surplus and consists of exporting more than is
imported; a negative balance of trade is known as a trade deficit
or, informally, a trade gap. The balance of trade is sometimes
divided into a goods and a services balance; especially in the
United Kingdom the terms visible and invisible balance are used
( Positive Trade Balance impacts GDP due to the
higher demand of employments and production.

Our surprise factor is 5.5B, if the release number comes out less
negative by 5.5B or -53.3B, then is good for the USD, and if the
release is more negative, or -64.3B, then is bad for the USD.

2. Thursday Oct. 11, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) CAD

Trade Balance Forecast 3.9B Previous 3.7B

Our surprise factor the CAD Trade Balance is 0.8B, if the number
comes out at 4.7B, then we'll SELL USD/CAD; and if the number comes
out at 3.1B, we'll BUY USD/CAD, depending on whether or not we have
a conflict with US Trade Balance.

Note that last Trade Balance didn't affect USD/CAD at all, CAD grew
stronger despite of worse data due to having a weaker than expected
US Data... Therefore, please make sure before you take on a trade,
there is no conflict.

3. Thursday Oct. 11, 2007 (5:45 am New York Time) NZD

Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.0%

NZD Retail sales has been a very good and reliable indicator to
trade with. Historically it has a 86% chance to move the market up
to 40 pips if our surprise factor is hit, and it has performed
consistently over the past 2 years.

Our Surprise factor is 0.5%, if the actual release comes out 0.9%,
we'll BUY NZD/USD or NZD/JPY, and if the number comes out at -0.1%,
we'll SELL NZD/USD or NZD/JPY, depending on whether USD or JPY is a
stronger currency at the moment. By choosing the right currency to
trade with, you can increase your profit and minimizing risk of

;) thanks alebest;)


Thanks Albest for your interpretation...

Re the trade on NZD Retail Sales, what did you mean when you referred to the stronger currency between USD / JPY? Should we be trading NZD/USD if USD is stronger or NZD/JPY if JPY is stronger?

Thanks heaps


Is there any site that I can read the news about event like this?

Is there any site that I can read the news about event like this faster?
Because I read felix signals but don't know where to find the news/report about it.



If you want the news feeds, join someone like Oanda (open a practice account for free) and use their news service - not the fastest but probably fast enough to pick up some pips straight after the event


Trading on NEWS

Hi Felix,

Many times I am unable to enter a trade on news suggested by you. Example on last friday 8.30am EST.

I use CMC platform . I failed to enter trade as usual on news. Sometimes I am offered a Re-quote with a very wide spread . Is this normal in FX trading? Is this a normal feature on other platforms? Any solutions?


Enjoying Your Signals

:)Just wanted to let you know that as a very new forex trader, you tips have been helping me greatly!