Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
We saw largely consolidative price action today with a bit of a stop run south during the early Euro session. Our medium term outlook is still bullish stocks, EU, AU and bearish USD in general. Any decent dips on the hourly chart should be good points to get long on any of these. For example, a dip on the Euro into the 1.4700 to 1.4750 range should be a good region to get long with a SL somewhere below 1.4700. Tuesday has better odds in my opinion at being another bullish day rather than a bearish one, so smaller hourly chart dips may be enough for a short to medium term long entry.
Stocks have shot higher with a very noticable gap around 1060. Today I closed the 2nd quarter of my stock swing trade long from 1050 or so at 1079 (quoting S&P cash, not futures). I'm holding 1/2 still with a mental stop around 1055 now. The gap from about 1057 to 1061 may be magnetic and force a pullback this week to fill it, but I think if that happens we'll find support there and it will be a good chance for a long with a relatively tight 5-10 point stop in that region.
In news Tuesday, we have:
0430 UK CPI headline y/y (1.3% expected) - On a surprise, I expect a 30-45 pip move right away in the first 1-2 minutes, then a possibility at a continuation after a pullback, but you have to look at the character of the move. If the spike reverses hard within the first 2 minutes, it's quite unlikely that the move will reassert itself. If it holds onto most of it's gains and eases back over the course of 5-15 minutes, it's worth buying the retracement at a good level and betting on another break higher.
If it comes out at 1.5% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 30-45 pips.
If it comes out at 1.1% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 30-45 pips.
We saw largely consolidative price action today with a bit of a stop run south during the early Euro session. Our medium term outlook is still bullish stocks, EU, AU and bearish USD in general. Any decent dips on the hourly chart should be good points to get long on any of these. For example, a dip on the Euro into the 1.4700 to 1.4750 range should be a good region to get long with a SL somewhere below 1.4700. Tuesday has better odds in my opinion at being another bullish day rather than a bearish one, so smaller hourly chart dips may be enough for a short to medium term long entry.
Stocks have shot higher with a very noticable gap around 1060. Today I closed the 2nd quarter of my stock swing trade long from 1050 or so at 1079 (quoting S&P cash, not futures). I'm holding 1/2 still with a mental stop around 1055 now. The gap from about 1057 to 1061 may be magnetic and force a pullback this week to fill it, but I think if that happens we'll find support there and it will be a good chance for a long with a relatively tight 5-10 point stop in that region.
In news Tuesday, we have:
0430 UK CPI headline y/y (1.3% expected) - On a surprise, I expect a 30-45 pip move right away in the first 1-2 minutes, then a possibility at a continuation after a pullback, but you have to look at the character of the move. If the spike reverses hard within the first 2 minutes, it's quite unlikely that the move will reassert itself. If it holds onto most of it's gains and eases back over the course of 5-15 minutes, it's worth buying the retracement at a good level and betting on another break higher.
If it comes out at 1.5% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 30-45 pips.
If it comes out at 1.1% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 30-45 pips.
Last edited:
you were spot on today with your forecast for the UK CPI - it was 1.1%, & the GPB fell 35 pips. Keep up the excellent work please.