Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
We saw some considerable strength in stocks today with the Dow now over 10,000 and the USD was especially weak, both in line with our current outlooks. The Euro is approaching a potential topping area around 1.5000, but the potential exists for a very sharp, quick spike higher through that level sometime in the next couple of weeks to finish off this up move and clear the air for a significant turn south. I'm keeping a close eye on it for signs that we should turn neutral or bearish, but for now, it's still best to retain a bullish bias and continue to buy on dips and take profits according to good money management.
Stocks have plowed nicely higher, and I'll be looking to close out the remaining half of my stock long soon... maybe some around 1100 and the rest at 1120 or just whenever I decide to get back in for a long term short.
In news Wednesday, we saw UK employment data come in just slightly better than expected, and the GBP really overreacted with a nice jolt higher. I didn't cover this report because reactions to it can be quite erratic either for or against it. US Retail Sales also came out a bit better than expected, but not enough to trade safely, and US stock earnings season is off to a great start with solid numbers, so that's helping risk appetite along. I found the FOMC minutes to be lots of double-talk, so the market may interpret the commentary there any way it wishes. In news Thursday:
0830 US CPI Core m/m (0.1% expected) - This news item is a bit risky as most releases out of the US are right now, but I would expect USD/JPY to be the safest pair to use for it.
If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40 pips.
We saw some considerable strength in stocks today with the Dow now over 10,000 and the USD was especially weak, both in line with our current outlooks. The Euro is approaching a potential topping area around 1.5000, but the potential exists for a very sharp, quick spike higher through that level sometime in the next couple of weeks to finish off this up move and clear the air for a significant turn south. I'm keeping a close eye on it for signs that we should turn neutral or bearish, but for now, it's still best to retain a bullish bias and continue to buy on dips and take profits according to good money management.
Stocks have plowed nicely higher, and I'll be looking to close out the remaining half of my stock long soon... maybe some around 1100 and the rest at 1120 or just whenever I decide to get back in for a long term short.
In news Wednesday, we saw UK employment data come in just slightly better than expected, and the GBP really overreacted with a nice jolt higher. I didn't cover this report because reactions to it can be quite erratic either for or against it. US Retail Sales also came out a bit better than expected, but not enough to trade safely, and US stock earnings season is off to a great start with solid numbers, so that's helping risk appetite along. I found the FOMC minutes to be lots of double-talk, so the market may interpret the commentary there any way it wishes. In news Thursday:
0830 US CPI Core m/m (0.1% expected) - This news item is a bit risky as most releases out of the US are right now, but I would expect USD/JPY to be the safest pair to use for it.
If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, USD/JPY should fall 40 pips.
