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Forex Trading Signal 10/16/07

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Felix Homogratus, Oct 14, 2007.

  1. Felix Homogratus

    Felix Homogratus Commander in Chief

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    This is Felix.

    If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon.


    Let's first review what happened today.

    On Friday we had U.S. Retail Sales, and it came out very close to expectations (0.4 versus 0.3 expected) so it was a no trade. Also, we had a conflict with the PPI. GBP/USD went up by 30 pips mostly because the Core PPI was considered more important here as retail sales barely deviated.

    Let's now talk about Monday and Tuesday.

    1. Monday, October 15th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
    On Monday we will have Empire State Business Conditions Index at 8:30 a.m. New York time. I recommend not trading this one because manufacturing is not that hot at this moment. Also, if you look at the history of this indicator, you will see that quite often it would come out with other U.S. indicators. like the CPI so it is hard to say how this performs.

    2. Tuesday, October 16th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
    On Tuesday at 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI coming out of the UK. The number to focus on will be CPI y/y which is expected to come out at 1.9% versus 1.8% previous month. If it reads 1.7% or below, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it reads 2.1% or above, GBP/USD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Even if the deviation is only 0.1 meaning the reading is 2%, GBP/USD may possibly gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the reading is 1.8%, same as last month, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It is possible that even with 0.1 deviation we will see 50 pips move but I want to make a conservative estimate.

    SUMMARY:
    * Report: UK CPI y/y
    * Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 1.7% or lower
    * Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 2.1% or higher
    * If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.


    3. Tuesday, October 16th, 2007 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
    Right after UK CPI , at 5 a.m. we will have German ZEW report coming out. The ZEW has been disappointing me many times. It used to be a decent indicator but lately the Euro does not react to it as much as I would like. Be aware of this report because some brokers may widen spreads, and if you are in trades, your stops can be taken out.

    4. Tuesday, October 16th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
    At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Manufacturing Shipments coming out of Canada. There are expected to read at -0.9% versus 2.3% last month. If it reads -2.0% or more negative, that would be a quite bit loss after the previous month gain. In fact, it would almost wipe off the previous month gain. Based on that, USD/CAD may go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it reads at 0% or higher, that means a second month in a row we see a positive (or at least non-negative) reading, that would be considered pretty bullish, and USD/CAD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

    SUMMARY:
    * Report: Canadian Manufacturing Shipments
    * Buy on USD/CAD if the number will be -2.0% or more negative
    * Sell on USD/CAD if the number will be 0 or higher
    * If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

    5. Tuesday, October 16th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
    Then at 9 a.m. we will have interest rate statement coming out of Canada. It is expected they will not change the rates. If there is a surprise, and they will hike by 0.25, USD/CAD may possibly go down by 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If they will cut by 0.25, USD/CAD may possibly go up by 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. That's extremely unlikely. What is important is the statement, and this is a little complicated to trade so I will not talk about it.

    All other reports I don't think are tradable at this moment.

    If you haven't been to my www.ForexDiamonds.com website, I strongly recommend you to go there. This is my live trading service, and you can trade live with me and one of my partners. Currently I am offering 21 days trial for that service, so go to that web page, and read about it. I definitely think everybody should at least try that service, and at least learn something during that 21 days.

    Good luck, and thank you very much.

    To Our Success!
    -Felix Homogratus
     
    #1 Felix Homogratus, Oct 14, 2007
    Lasted edited by : Aug 15, 2015
  2. fx57

    fx57 Recruit

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    hello felix, you dont have any comment for CHF Retail Sales?

    regards
     
  3. rpaco

    rpaco Sergeant

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    I wouldn't have though that they would move the USD much, it's the other side of the pair that influences the rate heavily. I would guess 10:1 ratio or more. ie the USA Retail figures influence the USDCHF rate 10 times more than the CHF figures. Hopefully Felix will correct this if I am wrong.
     
  4. tedek

    tedek Recruit

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    Hello Forex traders.

    I'm newbie here and I would really like to know what does it mean:

    I would understand like: "Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 2.0432 or higher"

    But those with percents, I just can`t get it.

    Could anyone explain me a bit more? Thankyou!


    Best Regards, Tedek
     
  5. goodtyneguy

    goodtyneguy Private

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    The 1.7% and 2.1% refers to the announced actual year on year figure for the UK consumer price index i.e the UK governments' measure of inflation.

    I believe the idea is to open a position immediately after the announcement (providing the CPI fits the criteria) at the prevailing exchange rate. The expectation being that the exchange rate will deviate at least 50 pips from that level within one hour of the announcement.

    I'm also a newbie so if this incorrect please go easy on me.:)

    One question from me:

    Would someone kindly give me a link/s to the live feed/s for the announcements.

    TIA
     
  6. BobCZ

    BobCZ Recruit

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    You can use Felix “secret news weaponâ€￾ or “forex diamondsâ€￾. Or some delayed news services brought by forex brokers, or TV / radio stations like Bloomberg, CNBC etc.
     
  7. rapots

    rapots Recruit

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    Hi guys !

    Interest Rate Statement in Canada didn't make some move as Rate stayed the same at 4,5%.
    But then at 9.00 a.m. , 15:00 CET it happened unexpected call IMO in USA as TICS Net Capital Flows which was announced at 60B droped massive at -69,3B which I considered as good opportunity at USA/CAD currency. Guess what, it dropped by 50+ pips whithin 7 minutes or so. I've managed to collect half of that.

    I hope you were in at that time.

    Regards to all, especially Felix
     
  8. goodtyneguy

    goodtyneguy Private

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    Thanks Bob, I need to drop my dial up connection in favour of broadband otherwise I'll get no where and end up losing money at this game.

    Are you all using Felix's secret weapon for the announcements, looks like a cool piece of software which could mean the difference between a profit and a loss on many trades?

    Cheers
     
  9. george

    george Recruit

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    Try newsstrike.com (free) for live announcement.
    Rgds
    George
     
  10. goodtyneguy

    goodtyneguy Private

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    Thank you george.

    All the best.
     

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