Forex Trading Signal 10/18/07

[Felix Homogratus]

This is Felix.

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon.


Let's first review what happened today.

Earlier today we had UK BOE Minutes coming out. It came out pretty dovish. They were discussing a possible rate cut, and one member voted for a rate cut but due to lack of evidence they kept the rate unchanged. Basically, the minutes warranted there will be a higher chance of a rate cut in the future. The price action was quite disappointing. I honestly expected a move for a least 50 pips on the down side of the GBP/USD. We saw a quick spike of about 20 pips, and then the price fully retraced. The price action right before was pretty bullish. If you went short, I think it was a pretty warranted trade. If you made some money on this little spike, congratulations. If you lost, well, it just did not work.

Then we had U.S. CPI coming out. That came out exactly as expected so that was a no trade.

Let's now talk what is going on tomorrow.

1. Thursday, October 18th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
Tomorrow at 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have UK Retail Sales coming out. For several months in a row we saw a strong retail sales numbers. Last month we had 0.6%, after 0.7% the previous month. This month they are expecting only 0.1% which would be a normal retracement after all the gains of last 4 months. If it comes at -0.2% or more negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the retail sales comes out at 0.4% or more positive, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the deviation is bigger, such as 0.6% or higher, then GBP/USD may possibly gain as much as 50 pips or more, and if we see a reading of -0.4% or more negative, I think a move of 50 pips or more is also possible. I would wait for the spike, then try to get in within 15 to 20 pips of the pre-release price, depending on the deviation. If the deviation is small, such as 0.3 either direction, I would try to get in within 10 pips of the pre-release price.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Retail Sales
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be -0.2% or more negative
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.4% or more positive
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
* Read more info regarding conservative triggers.

2. Thursday, October 18th, 2007 (7:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then at 7:30 a.m. New York time we will have Bank of Canada monetary policy report. Skip this one unless you really know what you are doing. Right now they expect that Canada is very happy with the interest rates of 4.50%. If for some reasons Bank of Canada talks about a possible need of another rate hike, I think USD/CAD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if Bank of Canada talks about a possible need for a rate cut because the currency is too strong, then USD/CAD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

3. Thursday, October 18th, 2007 (10:00 p.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 12 p.m New York time we will have Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index coming out. I will not be trading this one. Just be aware of possible higher spreads and price actions if you are in your regular trade. Manufacturing is not important, especially if it is a small indicator like this one.

This is pretty much all for tomorrow.

If you haven't been to my www.ForexDiamonds.com website, I strongly recommend you to go there. This is my live trading service, and you can trade live with me and one of my partners. Currently I am offering 21 days trial for that service, so go to that web page, and read about it. I definitely think everybody should at least try that service, and at least learn something during that 21 days.

Good luck, and thank you very much.

To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus

 

[pakaymoney]

Beautiful Signals

Felix your signals are just great, thank u so much, God Bless u, I am really getting into the trade, and with your signals to assist I am ok.

 

[Matsuto]

once again, thank you Felix!

 

[olayinka]

Hi Felix,

Have just suscribed to yuor forex trading signal. Its greate. My problem is how can I monitor the news before its release i.e (website or radio) so I can benefit from your experince.
Thanks,

OLAYINKA

 

[iskandar]

Hi Felix,

Today UK Retail Sales just hit your target pips. Keep up the good work. cant wait to receive your next signal

 

[puff2nana]

am new

hi,hello every one,am ney to the forum,hope to benefit alot form this,
thanks

 

[toprankeze]

Felix, ever since I got introduce to your signals my trading has improved. Thanks

 

[puff2nana]

thnks alot

i just make some pips now ,thanks for the signal,lord will continue to give you more strenght to go on.

 

[dejavou]

Nice

The Signals here are good but i think they will be just better and easily understandable to newbie traders like me if it would be in a much simpler format like: buy/sell EUR/USD at 1.4563, stop loss 1.... and Take Profit 1...., would attract more visitors to this forum.

 

[goodtyneguy]

Trading Today's UK Retail Sales News

Good morning folks, or I should say good whatever time it is in your part of the world.

As a newbie to fx trading I only observed the price action today in order to get a feel for things. I did intend to do a small "test the water" trade but things did n't quite go as planned, see below. I'd like to give my observations and ask some questions if I may.


At the moment I have a dial up connection which will obviously have to change to broadband before I start to trade. My dial up is restricting me to a written news feed I receive through a "pop up" window when logged into my broker. A good news feed is something I will have to look into once I have broadband connected. I have registered with Newsstrike so far but if anyone has any better recommendations I would be grateful if you would let me know.

OK, this is how I saw it. First of all I was sitting with my trading and news feed screen open at 9.29 a.m waiting for the annoncement when all of a sudden I got a message in my news feed screen saying "sorry this service is not available at the moment". Fanatastic I thought, anyway it was to late to look elsewhere so I thought I might as well watch to see which direction and how far the market goes.

So, the buy price (I refer to buy price throughout) before the news release I guess was around 20413 which then went quickly upwards 32 pips to around 20445 where it seemed to hover for a little while. At this point my news feed starts working and I see retail sales came in at O.6%. As you will have seen the price moved upwards again until it reached a high point of approx. 20470. I estimate this was attained about 20 minutes after the announcement.

Question:

1) I am under the immpression that "the spike" occurs shortly after the announcement i.e in seconds, am I wrong and is what I have described above "the spike" ?

At the time I was assuming this was the top of the spike but was a little unsure hence my question. Now I was waiting for the retracement of 15-20 pips of the pre-release price (20413+20=20433 circa)as per Felix's recommendation. After the high at approximatley 9.50 a.m the price steadly moved down to arrive at approximately 20436 at 10.10 a.m, three pips above the recommended retracement level.

Question:

2) Was the 20436 level the point where I should have "gone in" despite it being slightly above the retracement level ? (With the benefit of hindsight the answer is yes but the question is....... does the system dictate that this is an entry point without the hindsight)?

The price then moved up and finished at 20454 one hour from the news release.

Thank you for reading this far, any answers, comments and guidance appreciated.

Rob