Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
Well, the preliminary look short yesterday didn't pan out as it looks like the alternative potential rally back up took hold. As I mentioned yesterday I've kept my longs in play with tighter stop losses but just took a hit on the short trade yesterday and I'm no longer in short. Since we have extended this rally to new highs yet again, it's quite possible that it ends with a sharp final burst higher to surprising new levels and quickly reverses hard. If that pattern develops, that will be nice confirmation for a short, but for now, the markets will likely continue to find short term upside, so buying dips on the shorter term timeframes makes the most sense. We should see spikes above 1.5000 on EU, 1.6500 on GU, and around 1121 on the S&P in my opinion; however, we're approaching highs and will look to take action once some confirmation short is attained.
In news Tuesday:
0830 US PPI - This one is kind of a crap shoot and a bit risky, so while I'm going to keep an eye on it, I'm not planning on trading explicitly based on the numbers. All the numbers coming in high should send USD/JPY higher while lower numbers should send USD/JPY lower, but there are a lot of other variables to consider that are hard to preview here.
0900 CAD Interest Rates (no change at 0.25% unanimously expected) - Things in Canada are not nearly as rosy as in Australia, so it's doubtful we'll see hikes from the BOC anytime soon. A very dovish tone would lead to USD/CAD strength while a surprisingly hawkish tone would lead towards some nice USD/CAD weakness depending on the severity of the tone.
If it comes out at 0.50%, USD/CAD should fall 100+ pips.
Well, the preliminary look short yesterday didn't pan out as it looks like the alternative potential rally back up took hold. As I mentioned yesterday I've kept my longs in play with tighter stop losses but just took a hit on the short trade yesterday and I'm no longer in short. Since we have extended this rally to new highs yet again, it's quite possible that it ends with a sharp final burst higher to surprising new levels and quickly reverses hard. If that pattern develops, that will be nice confirmation for a short, but for now, the markets will likely continue to find short term upside, so buying dips on the shorter term timeframes makes the most sense. We should see spikes above 1.5000 on EU, 1.6500 on GU, and around 1121 on the S&P in my opinion; however, we're approaching highs and will look to take action once some confirmation short is attained.
In news Tuesday:
0830 US PPI - This one is kind of a crap shoot and a bit risky, so while I'm going to keep an eye on it, I'm not planning on trading explicitly based on the numbers. All the numbers coming in high should send USD/JPY higher while lower numbers should send USD/JPY lower, but there are a lot of other variables to consider that are hard to preview here.
0900 CAD Interest Rates (no change at 0.25% unanimously expected) - Things in Canada are not nearly as rosy as in Australia, so it's doubtful we'll see hikes from the BOC anytime soon. A very dovish tone would lead to USD/CAD strength while a surprisingly hawkish tone would lead towards some nice USD/CAD weakness depending on the severity of the tone.
If it comes out at 0.50%, USD/CAD should fall 100+ pips.
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