Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
The story of the day was the EUR/USD that dropped for a number of reasons, but as I said yesterday, we were looking for some sharp reversal confirmation on the EUR/USD and looking to use it to get in short sometime this week if it happened. Well, a 200 pip drop is definitely enough of an impulse. As I mentioned in a reply to my post yesterday, I recommend more of a position trade style short somewhere above 1.4900 with a 200 pip SL. Good potential targets are 1.4700 and 1.4460 over the next week or two, but 1.3000 and below are still possible long term. If you're looking for the ideal spot to snipe the EUR/USD with a short on this bounce that's developing, I'd say aim around 1.4980 or a few pips short of that. That is the ideal spot I think to jump in short as it is both the lows of Sunday and the common 68% retracement we often see on the Euro. I believe the trend has shifted towards USD strength again and the big GBP/USD selloff last week was our leading indicator, and the EUR/USD follow-through today was the confirmation. If you see a different way you'd prefer to get long on USD, feel free to try it there as well.
The stock short trade I recommended yesterday worked out perfectly where a short in the 1085 to 1095 range saw a 20 point or more profit in the same day. Obviously, I'd recommend taking some profits if you haven't already and I'm holding on for around 1050 for the rest, but I may also roll this over into more of a long term trade if we get confirmational breaks past 1050 and 1030.
On Silver and Gold, I'm not quite ready to pull the trigger short since the price patterns would look much cleaner if we got a final rally to new highs before gunning lower. Since I'm already in long USD for a potentially long term trade short on EUR/USD, holding back on Gold and Silver keeps my leverage down on this USD move until things prove higher probability.
There was no major economic news of note on Monday. In news Tuesday...
1000 US Consumer Confidence (53.5 expected) - This hasn't been the best trade out there the last few months, but with big shocks in the markets yesterday, I think we could see a better move than usual on a moderate to large surprise. We're also seeing signs of yen cross revitalization during the US session, so I think EUR/JPY is the way to go on this one.
If it comes out at 58 or higher, EUR/JPY should gain 40+ pips
If it comes out at 49 or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 40+ pips
2030 AUD CPI Trimmed Mean q/q (0.7% expected) - The initial spike for the first 10-15 seconds will likely react more specifically towards the headline CPI q/q number expected at 0.9%; however, very quickly after that the real focus will be the Trimmed Mean number and that usually wins out even amidst a conflict (see the last 2 month's charts). Obviously the best opportunity is if all the CPI numbers agree, then we could see 40 pips no problem. On a conflict, expect a whipsaw initially towards the headline, then towards the trimmed mean surprise.
If it comes out at 0.9% or higher and the other CPI numbers are high as well, AUD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.5% or lower and the other CPI numbers are low as well, AUD/USD should fall 40 pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH Forex Diamonds FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
The story of the day was the EUR/USD that dropped for a number of reasons, but as I said yesterday, we were looking for some sharp reversal confirmation on the EUR/USD and looking to use it to get in short sometime this week if it happened. Well, a 200 pip drop is definitely enough of an impulse. As I mentioned in a reply to my post yesterday, I recommend more of a position trade style short somewhere above 1.4900 with a 200 pip SL. Good potential targets are 1.4700 and 1.4460 over the next week or two, but 1.3000 and below are still possible long term. If you're looking for the ideal spot to snipe the EUR/USD with a short on this bounce that's developing, I'd say aim around 1.4980 or a few pips short of that. That is the ideal spot I think to jump in short as it is both the lows of Sunday and the common 68% retracement we often see on the Euro. I believe the trend has shifted towards USD strength again and the big GBP/USD selloff last week was our leading indicator, and the EUR/USD follow-through today was the confirmation. If you see a different way you'd prefer to get long on USD, feel free to try it there as well.
The stock short trade I recommended yesterday worked out perfectly where a short in the 1085 to 1095 range saw a 20 point or more profit in the same day. Obviously, I'd recommend taking some profits if you haven't already and I'm holding on for around 1050 for the rest, but I may also roll this over into more of a long term trade if we get confirmational breaks past 1050 and 1030.
On Silver and Gold, I'm not quite ready to pull the trigger short since the price patterns would look much cleaner if we got a final rally to new highs before gunning lower. Since I'm already in long USD for a potentially long term trade short on EUR/USD, holding back on Gold and Silver keeps my leverage down on this USD move until things prove higher probability.
There was no major economic news of note on Monday. In news Tuesday...
1000 US Consumer Confidence (53.5 expected) - This hasn't been the best trade out there the last few months, but with big shocks in the markets yesterday, I think we could see a better move than usual on a moderate to large surprise. We're also seeing signs of yen cross revitalization during the US session, so I think EUR/JPY is the way to go on this one.
If it comes out at 58 or higher, EUR/JPY should gain 40+ pips
If it comes out at 49 or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 40+ pips
2030 AUD CPI Trimmed Mean q/q (0.7% expected) - The initial spike for the first 10-15 seconds will likely react more specifically towards the headline CPI q/q number expected at 0.9%; however, very quickly after that the real focus will be the Trimmed Mean number and that usually wins out even amidst a conflict (see the last 2 month's charts). Obviously the best opportunity is if all the CPI numbers agree, then we could see 40 pips no problem. On a conflict, expect a whipsaw initially towards the headline, then towards the trimmed mean surprise.
If it comes out at 0.9% or higher and the other CPI numbers are high as well, AUD/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 0.5% or lower and the other CPI numbers are low as well, AUD/USD should fall 40 pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH Forex Diamonds FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
Last edited:
