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Forex Trading Signal 10-29-2009

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Oct 29, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey foks,

    The selloff continued as expected today and the EUR/USD worked down to clear, major daily chart support around 1.4680. Our first proposed target for the EUR/USD short called earlier this week was 1.4700, so now is a good time to take some off the table on any USD longs. Chances are we'll be forming a multi-day bottom at some point here before the week ends, so the opportunity to sell more after a good bounce may come Friday or early next week.

    Stocks continued their selloff through 1050 support and right into another support level at 1042 on the S&P. I decided to close all of my stock shorts from the last couple weeks in the 1042-1050 area today because they were shorter term in nature. My plan is to wait for stocks to form a short term bottom here and work a bit higher over the next week, probably into the 1060 to 1080 region, and reenter short with more of a longer term perspective. Conversely, a lack of bottom-forming and stronger confirmation that a break through 1020 would provide may be enough to get me back in short for the long term without waiting for a better price.

    In news Wednesday, New Home Sales came out pretty dissapointing, and even with a clear downtrend in place, EUR/JPY only managed 40 pips down followed by a strong retracement. When you zoom out to the 15 minute chart, the move around 1000 EST doesn't look much different than any other bit of the price action, so I don't think it was a major short term factor on currencies even though it was a nice catalyst for the stock selloff today. NZ Interest Rates came out largely as expected, but their continued cautious tone maintaining that rates should stay the same until the 2nd half of 2010 seemed to disappoint investors who probably were already waiting to sell NZD/USD in-line with this meaty USD strong trend but held on through the statement just in case. Because of that, we got a rather exaggerated move south following the statement. In news Thursday:

    0830 US Advance GDP 3rd q/q (3.2% expected) - These figures will probably get a lot of press because they are expected to come out positive and the media may be buzzing declaring it the end of the recession in the U.S., so if the numbers come out worse than expected, we might not get the same kind of ambitious downside one might expect. Also, look out for any revisions to the 2nd quarter numbers. The last time we got advance GDP released in July, the 2Q numbers came out better than expected by 0.5%, but there was a strong downwards revision to 1Q data down by 0.9%, so the initial up move whipsawed into a selloff.
    If it comes out at 3.8% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40 pips.
    If it comes out at 2.6% or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 40 pips.

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    To our success,
    Sir Pipsalot
     
    #1 Sir Pipsalot, Oct 29, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2009
  2. Real Managers

    Real Managers Banned again

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    Thanks

    Its been a long time I contributed to the signal! I think 0.9 deviation for Advance GDP q/q from U.S is worth trading but it has been performing ugly in the past few months. Anyway, thanks for the signal.


    Proudly 9ja
     
  3. Paul Simeons

    Paul Simeons Recruit

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    Thanks Sir pips

    I look forward to your signals everyday, keep up the good work:D
     
  4. Colin D

    Colin D Recruit

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    Thanks for signals, keep up the good work!
    Any idea what caused the big move at 16.00 in jpy pairs on 28th(yesterday)?

    Regards,
    CD
     
    #4 Colin D, Oct 29, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2009
  5. davidiyaji

    davidiyaji Recruit

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    Thanks

    Great insight. There has been great improvements in my trading as a result of these commentries. We really miss your video analysis.
     
  6. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    I'm working on a new host for the videos that's better equipped to handle them. Until then I've been taking a break from recording them. I'll probably have them back up and running in 3 weeks or so.
     
  7. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    FYI, the retracement has been harder and faster than I expected, so I actually think a sell here on GBP/USD is appropriate from a wide SL position trade standpoint. I'm entering short now at 1.6550 to 1.6600 with an SL above 1.6750. It might be a bit early, but the 1.66 level is quite key and this is a good region to be short in for a position trade.
     
    #7 Sir Pipsalot, Oct 29, 2009
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2009
  8. bhasspoken

    bhasspoken Recruit

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    Data

    Well done again Sir Pips on the GDP results great move, how do you do it please keep it up.

    Glen
     
  9. Irish Rover

    Irish Rover Recruit

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    Risk aversion confused

    When the US GDP came out better than expected, the USD currency should have theoretically strenghtened however the opposite happened. I understand this to be because (rightly or wrongly) because the stockmarket strenghtened hence the USD was sold. I have questions about this:
    1) How do I know which signals will make this opposite case happen
    2) What are the mechanics and reasons as to why as per your signals the EURJPY rallied. It is confusing me as EURJPY seems an unusual trade given it was USA news. Can you explain this please?

     
  10. FXDM

    FXDM Banned

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    Signals update: Oct 30 09

    GBP/USD Sell at: 1.6570 – SL: 1.6820 – TP: Open

    ..........................
    Happy trading.

    FXDM
     

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