Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey foks,
The selloff continued as expected today and the EUR/USD worked down to clear, major daily chart support around 1.4680. Our first proposed target for the EUR/USD short called earlier this week was 1.4700, so now is a good time to take some off the table on any USD longs. Chances are we'll be forming a multi-day bottom at some point here before the week ends, so the opportunity to sell more after a good bounce may come Friday or early next week.
Stocks continued their selloff through 1050 support and right into another support level at 1042 on the S&P. I decided to close all of my stock shorts from the last couple weeks in the 1042-1050 area today because they were shorter term in nature. My plan is to wait for stocks to form a short term bottom here and work a bit higher over the next week, probably into the 1060 to 1080 region, and reenter short with more of a longer term perspective. Conversely, a lack of bottom-forming and stronger confirmation that a break through 1020 would provide may be enough to get me back in short for the long term without waiting for a better price.
In news Wednesday, New Home Sales came out pretty dissapointing, and even with a clear downtrend in place, EUR/JPY only managed 40 pips down followed by a strong retracement. When you zoom out to the 15 minute chart, the move around 1000 EST doesn't look much different than any other bit of the price action, so I don't think it was a major short term factor on currencies even though it was a nice catalyst for the stock selloff today. NZ Interest Rates came out largely as expected, but their continued cautious tone maintaining that rates should stay the same until the 2nd half of 2010 seemed to disappoint investors who probably were already waiting to sell NZD/USD in-line with this meaty USD strong trend but held on through the statement just in case. Because of that, we got a rather exaggerated move south following the statement. In news Thursday:
0830 US Advance GDP 3rd q/q (3.2% expected) - These figures will probably get a lot of press because they are expected to come out positive and the media may be buzzing declaring it the end of the recession in the U.S., so if the numbers come out worse than expected, we might not get the same kind of ambitious downside one might expect. Also, look out for any revisions to the 2nd quarter numbers. The last time we got advance GDP released in July, the 2Q numbers came out better than expected by 0.5%, but there was a strong downwards revision to 1Q data down by 0.9%, so the initial up move whipsawed into a selloff.
If it comes out at 3.8% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 2.6% or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 40 pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH Forex Diamonds FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
The selloff continued as expected today and the EUR/USD worked down to clear, major daily chart support around 1.4680. Our first proposed target for the EUR/USD short called earlier this week was 1.4700, so now is a good time to take some off the table on any USD longs. Chances are we'll be forming a multi-day bottom at some point here before the week ends, so the opportunity to sell more after a good bounce may come Friday or early next week.
Stocks continued their selloff through 1050 support and right into another support level at 1042 on the S&P. I decided to close all of my stock shorts from the last couple weeks in the 1042-1050 area today because they were shorter term in nature. My plan is to wait for stocks to form a short term bottom here and work a bit higher over the next week, probably into the 1060 to 1080 region, and reenter short with more of a longer term perspective. Conversely, a lack of bottom-forming and stronger confirmation that a break through 1020 would provide may be enough to get me back in short for the long term without waiting for a better price.
In news Wednesday, New Home Sales came out pretty dissapointing, and even with a clear downtrend in place, EUR/JPY only managed 40 pips down followed by a strong retracement. When you zoom out to the 15 minute chart, the move around 1000 EST doesn't look much different than any other bit of the price action, so I don't think it was a major short term factor on currencies even though it was a nice catalyst for the stock selloff today. NZ Interest Rates came out largely as expected, but their continued cautious tone maintaining that rates should stay the same until the 2nd half of 2010 seemed to disappoint investors who probably were already waiting to sell NZD/USD in-line with this meaty USD strong trend but held on through the statement just in case. Because of that, we got a rather exaggerated move south following the statement. In news Thursday:
0830 US Advance GDP 3rd q/q (3.2% expected) - These figures will probably get a lot of press because they are expected to come out positive and the media may be buzzing declaring it the end of the recession in the U.S., so if the numbers come out worse than expected, we might not get the same kind of ambitious downside one might expect. Also, look out for any revisions to the 2nd quarter numbers. The last time we got advance GDP released in July, the 2Q numbers came out better than expected by 0.5%, but there was a strong downwards revision to 1Q data down by 0.9%, so the initial up move whipsawed into a selloff.
If it comes out at 3.8% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 2.6% or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 40 pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH Forex Diamonds FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
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