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Forex Trading Signal 10-6-2009

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Oct 6, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    The USD whipped around from strength initially into weakness on Monday and is now yet again running into resistance areas on the EUR/USD, Gold, etc. As with yesterday, it was a good move to sell into resistance with some modest profit goals (see yesterday's post) by shorting the EUR/USD here around 1.4700 to 1.4735 looking for some potential "Turnaround Tuesday" type price action, but you may want to look for some form of short term confirmation before getting in just in case this short term USD weak momentum carries onwards. Much more bullish behavior on the Euro (break of 1.4850) will force us out of our shorts and put us on the sidelines for a bit. For now though, we'll continue to hold the line and see what Tuesday brings us.

    We've seen some renewed bearish USD sentiment as the RBA hiked interest rates and Persian Gulf states are considering shifting away from the USD for oil trading. It is possible that the fundamentals will push USD to yet another extended low before bottoming, but there's still a decent chance we can get things turned around this week as the deflation issue has sneakily been brought up by fed officials today. They're concerned about lowering wages and insist that pressures are more deflationary than inflationary right now. I agree. When it comes down to it, the big engine behind inflation or deflation (the cause) is wage growth or contraction, not the price of goods and services (the symptoms).

    Gold is trading close to the edge of it's 1024 highs, which is troublesome, but fortunately I've recommended Silver as the preferable short compared to Gold. With the stock market pretty subdued, Silver should remain under more pressure than gold which helps out the shorts there.

    Stocks bounced back a bit today but are now at some interesting trendline resistance. The signals are mixed for Tuesday but I think the odds are leaning towards a selloff tomorrow. I'm continuing to hold stocks short for a long term trade expecting the 1070 highs to hold up and for us to see considerable more downside.

    In news Monday, we saw UK Services PMI come out too close to expected for a buy, but still having reasonable price action upwards. The RBA raised interest rates somewhat surprisingly causing a fairly quick 80 pip rally on the AUD/USD which consolidated, reloaded and has since pushed into a bit of a daily chart breakout higher as I speak. This RBA move could unfortunately be a catalyst for further USD weaknesses across the board as traders and investors see it as a sign that the US recovery is lagging many overseas markets. In news Tuesday:

    0430 UK Industrial Production m/m (0.2% expected) - Look out for potential rumor/leaked based price action in the minutes before the news. This trade is a bit hit or miss, but with services PMI yesterday posting nice follow-through after the pullback, we could see another good trade today. Make sure there's no conflict though with Manufacturing Production.
    If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 30-40 pips.
    If it comes out at -0.1% or lower, GBP/USD should fall 30-40 pips.

    1000 CAD Ivey PMI (56.2 expected) - When we used to trade this more often in years past, it would work well on a +/- 5 deviation, but lately it's been working well on small triggers, and having trouble on large surprises. I have a feeling the last 2 months aren't a fluke though and guess that this month will see a decent move. When it does work, the move usually comes about slowly (10-30 minutes) so don't expect a huge surge.
    If it comes out at 60 or higher, USD/CAD should drop 30-40 pips.
    If it comes out at 52 or lower, USD/CAD should rally 30-40 pips.
     
  2. lespascorine

    lespascorine Recruit

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    Thank you for the infos

    I was trying to get into the aud/usd trade last night. I was waiting for the RBA to release it's statement but the site I was watching (and waiting) released the news 15 min too late. Because of that I could not enter the market on time and I was not able to benefit from the interest rise and the 80 pip that it caused.

    Could you give me a reliable site with real time update

    Thank you very much

    Pascal
     
  3. sopel

    sopel Private

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    @lespascorine

    It's impossible to get information "on time". Look at 1 min chart and you'll see what happened. It jumped in 1 min, action was fast, im pretty sure of that you couldn't even enter the market, requotes cause of fast price action.

    I caught 50 pips, because i entered long 1 min before news at 0.8761 with SL 20 pips lower - 0.8741 - but its very risky to trade news in that way. Im not trading like this every time, but when im expecting changes in interest rate im risking with very tight sl.

    I don't know what happened in Diamond room, SP could you tell us how did you trade that news ? or skipped that ?
     
  4. p-a

    p-a Recruit

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    I would also like a reliable news site

    I'm new to forex trading and I would like to know the website where you get the news you post in your Daily review and a website where the news are delivered on time...please

    thank you and your daily signals are are very helpful by the way read them every night at 2.30am
     
  5. gbryant

    gbryant Recruit

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    forex diamond

    i have a couple of questions about the forex diamond room and was checking to see if there is an email address where i could contact someone regarding the room? if so please let me know, Thanks
     
  6. robstephen

    robstephen Recruit

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    RBA website

    Reserve Bank of Australia - Home Page

    is the RBA's website that usually updates without too much delay.

    the chances of being able to act quick enough to grab a chunk of the move though, quicker than any of the big guy's algos are prettty slim though.

    Rob
     
  7. VisionBusiness

    VisionBusiness Recruit

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    Try this...



    Dow Jones Newswire might work for you in the states....
     
  8. Doug Buar

    Doug Buar Recruit

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    Thank You !

    Thank you, SirPipsalot.

    Though I couldn't enter where I wanted on the AUD/USD, I did pick up 30 pips on the USDCAD announcement.

    Thanks again!
     
  9. chuxy

    chuxy Recruit

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    Good job

    thanks the good job u r doing. pls keep it up
    :hissyfit:
     

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