Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Dude, guys... what the hell? A few of you guys are getting way too worked up over this. If you've lost a ton of money, it's you guys losing it, not me losing it for you. What did I call? Let's recap:
I called a position trade short on the EUR/USD around 1.4700. Weeks later after having seen some, but limited downside I told everyone I was getting out because the odds have changed against us and I personally got out at 1.4730. For a trade that I recommended originally with a 300 pip SL, getting out with a 30 pip loss should not cripple you.
I also recommended a short on stocks once we broke 1057 which gave plenty of time to get in between 1050 and 1070 over a day or two. When we exited it was at 1054 and hung around here for a day or so.
Lastly I recommened a short on Silver around $16.80. I said you could take it as a swing trade with a tighter $17.10 SL, or as a position trade with up to a $1 budgeted loss. A few days later, it traded as low as $15.75 which 3 times the risk if you took it as a swing trade, so you should have taken some profits at some point. If you took it as a position trade and exited yesterday, it was around $17.25 for 24 hours or so. That's a $0.45 loss per ounce which is unfortunate but losses happen with trading and it's less than half of the planned risk on the trade.
In all these cases, I worked hard to make sure I let you folks know to get out before things got too painful. If you had huge losses on this, it's because you chased things around with your own trades and got killed with your own trades. I've mentioned maybe half a dozen little potential short term trades on these boards in the last few weeks and I think almost all have been profitable! While half you guys are blasting me in here, did anyone notice that I recommended in this post a buy on EUR/USD in the 1.4650 to 1.4690 area with a SL at either 1.4640 or 1.4580? The Euro traded down to it's lows of the day right around 1.4650 and has rallied 125 pips since to new highs without hitting the proposed SL as tight as 10 pips away. You guys are talking smack literally as I'm calling good trades with great payoffs and much shorter holding periods.
You also have to recognize that you do NOT need to win 50% of your position trades to make money on them. The risk reward is so skewed towards reward that calling a top properly makes up for several moderate losses and then some. If you want to win a much higher % of your trades, employ more realistic risk/reward ratio and only grab a piece or two of the move with a swing trade. Like on silver, with a $0.30 to $1 stop loss, it saw $1 of profit at one point... If you want to win most of your trades, you take that $1 or less and run with it. If you want to make 5-10 times your risk on a big trade like that and hold out for really big TP's... you're probabalistically going to lose more often than you win and still make money in the end.
You guys have to learn to manage risk properly, understand what you're doing, and learn how to trade skillfully. I can't teach you that here on a message board but I try my best to teach a lot of those skills in my trading room. If you're trading super heavy, you'll lose your account one way or another... a bad string of losers happens to everyone eventually and it will probably wipe you out. EVERYONE I know who has traded a small account into a big one quickly has subsequently blown it back down again. I risk 1% of my account on most trades. That means a string of 10 full losers only draws me down 10%. I can recover from that fine. That also means that with a $10,000 account you can probably make $1,000 to $2,000 a month consistently if you trade well. Obviously more with bigger accounts. That's how you make money in forex. Not by doubling and quadrupling and gambling on every trade. Sometimes I put a lot more risk on stock trades though, but that's because I see it as more of investment capital than trading capital.
I cannot control the markets. It's still all about odds. I think the odds are much higher than most experts believe that we head into a deflationary depression or at least a double-dip recession. In the end though, it's all still an odds game and there's a lot left to chance and unpredictable events. What I can do is give you my best read on the markets given the information I have available to me based on my research. I pay over $4,000 per month for over a dozen different news services, analysis firms, and software packages and do several hours of research a day. EWI is only one small part of what I look at. Oftentimes my views are contrarian, but when I'm right I make good money and even when I'm wrong I still end up with money in my pocket more often than not. Why? Because I'm a TRADER. What did I tell you guys? I basically said yesterday that it sucks we were wrong on the short, but hey, let's make some back on longs... buy on dips or even chase this with confirmation. If you bought Silver (I didn't... I focused more on stocks and currencies) when we bailed our short, you'd have made it all back and be net $0.10 profit. If you bought the Euro on that dip as I recommended you'd be 100 pips or so in profit or just out with cash in your pocket. If you bought stocks like I posted about around the open, you'd be up 17 points on the S&P futures which is already in one day more than I planned to risk on the trade.
Those of you who understand and appreciate what I do, thank you and no need to spam me with praise and encouragement. Those of you who have lambasted me here or who think I'm more concerned about my ego than making good trades, take a look at yourself. You're so concerned with blasting me on a messageboard that you don't realize the past 24 hours have been a great opportunity to make a ton of money based on my recommendations. If I was more concerned about "being right" than making money I wouldn't have bailed the whole thing around break even and flip long on a dime when the markets changed their tune. I'm easily upset about things like this because I work hard at this and I think it has a lot of value... not because I'm a cocky bastard.
The reason why much market analysis is often so worthless to traders is the analysts don't want to ever be cited as wrong on anything, so they qualify every opinion they try to put out there. Quite frankly, I have the balls to express an opinionated, direct, and actionable view of the markets and how I plan to make money from them as a trader. Psychology dictates that most will remember the losers much more which makes what I do here probably less marketable than a friendly feel-good fluff blog on the markets. I won't change though. This is what I do, and if you're at least a disciplined trader trying to learn I think you'll benefit more from my insights and analysis than most other things on the web.
Anyways, sorry for the big rant. It's probably only targetted at 10% or so of you out there, but it's a worthwhile read I think for everyone for some perspective on what trading is all about as opposed to gambling. We're not picking horses here or betting on who's going to win the big game on Sunday. We're trading economic markets, the situation is very fluid, and right or wrong you're not going to make money here without using skillfull and safe money management.
On a side note, I'm probably going to have a big, exciting announement for you all at some point over the next week. I look forward to continue making a good living trading and analyzing the markets and helping you all do the same.
PS - AU should hit 0.9300 in the next week or so and has a good chance to do so even with a relatively tight stop in the mid to high 0.8900's. Maybe a 30-40% chance to return 3-5 times your risk from here. More on this in the 10-8 daily signal.
I called a position trade short on the EUR/USD around 1.4700. Weeks later after having seen some, but limited downside I told everyone I was getting out because the odds have changed against us and I personally got out at 1.4730. For a trade that I recommended originally with a 300 pip SL, getting out with a 30 pip loss should not cripple you.
I also recommended a short on stocks once we broke 1057 which gave plenty of time to get in between 1050 and 1070 over a day or two. When we exited it was at 1054 and hung around here for a day or so.
Lastly I recommened a short on Silver around $16.80. I said you could take it as a swing trade with a tighter $17.10 SL, or as a position trade with up to a $1 budgeted loss. A few days later, it traded as low as $15.75 which 3 times the risk if you took it as a swing trade, so you should have taken some profits at some point. If you took it as a position trade and exited yesterday, it was around $17.25 for 24 hours or so. That's a $0.45 loss per ounce which is unfortunate but losses happen with trading and it's less than half of the planned risk on the trade.
In all these cases, I worked hard to make sure I let you folks know to get out before things got too painful. If you had huge losses on this, it's because you chased things around with your own trades and got killed with your own trades. I've mentioned maybe half a dozen little potential short term trades on these boards in the last few weeks and I think almost all have been profitable! While half you guys are blasting me in here, did anyone notice that I recommended in this post a buy on EUR/USD in the 1.4650 to 1.4690 area with a SL at either 1.4640 or 1.4580? The Euro traded down to it's lows of the day right around 1.4650 and has rallied 125 pips since to new highs without hitting the proposed SL as tight as 10 pips away. You guys are talking smack literally as I'm calling good trades with great payoffs and much shorter holding periods.
You also have to recognize that you do NOT need to win 50% of your position trades to make money on them. The risk reward is so skewed towards reward that calling a top properly makes up for several moderate losses and then some. If you want to win a much higher % of your trades, employ more realistic risk/reward ratio and only grab a piece or two of the move with a swing trade. Like on silver, with a $0.30 to $1 stop loss, it saw $1 of profit at one point... If you want to win most of your trades, you take that $1 or less and run with it. If you want to make 5-10 times your risk on a big trade like that and hold out for really big TP's... you're probabalistically going to lose more often than you win and still make money in the end.
You guys have to learn to manage risk properly, understand what you're doing, and learn how to trade skillfully. I can't teach you that here on a message board but I try my best to teach a lot of those skills in my trading room. If you're trading super heavy, you'll lose your account one way or another... a bad string of losers happens to everyone eventually and it will probably wipe you out. EVERYONE I know who has traded a small account into a big one quickly has subsequently blown it back down again. I risk 1% of my account on most trades. That means a string of 10 full losers only draws me down 10%. I can recover from that fine. That also means that with a $10,000 account you can probably make $1,000 to $2,000 a month consistently if you trade well. Obviously more with bigger accounts. That's how you make money in forex. Not by doubling and quadrupling and gambling on every trade. Sometimes I put a lot more risk on stock trades though, but that's because I see it as more of investment capital than trading capital.
I cannot control the markets. It's still all about odds. I think the odds are much higher than most experts believe that we head into a deflationary depression or at least a double-dip recession. In the end though, it's all still an odds game and there's a lot left to chance and unpredictable events. What I can do is give you my best read on the markets given the information I have available to me based on my research. I pay over $4,000 per month for over a dozen different news services, analysis firms, and software packages and do several hours of research a day. EWI is only one small part of what I look at. Oftentimes my views are contrarian, but when I'm right I make good money and even when I'm wrong I still end up with money in my pocket more often than not. Why? Because I'm a TRADER. What did I tell you guys? I basically said yesterday that it sucks we were wrong on the short, but hey, let's make some back on longs... buy on dips or even chase this with confirmation. If you bought Silver (I didn't... I focused more on stocks and currencies) when we bailed our short, you'd have made it all back and be net $0.10 profit. If you bought the Euro on that dip as I recommended you'd be 100 pips or so in profit or just out with cash in your pocket. If you bought stocks like I posted about around the open, you'd be up 17 points on the S&P futures which is already in one day more than I planned to risk on the trade.
Those of you who understand and appreciate what I do, thank you and no need to spam me with praise and encouragement. Those of you who have lambasted me here or who think I'm more concerned about my ego than making good trades, take a look at yourself. You're so concerned with blasting me on a messageboard that you don't realize the past 24 hours have been a great opportunity to make a ton of money based on my recommendations. If I was more concerned about "being right" than making money I wouldn't have bailed the whole thing around break even and flip long on a dime when the markets changed their tune. I'm easily upset about things like this because I work hard at this and I think it has a lot of value... not because I'm a cocky bastard.
The reason why much market analysis is often so worthless to traders is the analysts don't want to ever be cited as wrong on anything, so they qualify every opinion they try to put out there. Quite frankly, I have the balls to express an opinionated, direct, and actionable view of the markets and how I plan to make money from them as a trader. Psychology dictates that most will remember the losers much more which makes what I do here probably less marketable than a friendly feel-good fluff blog on the markets. I won't change though. This is what I do, and if you're at least a disciplined trader trying to learn I think you'll benefit more from my insights and analysis than most other things on the web.
Anyways, sorry for the big rant. It's probably only targetted at 10% or so of you out there, but it's a worthwhile read I think for everyone for some perspective on what trading is all about as opposed to gambling. We're not picking horses here or betting on who's going to win the big game on Sunday. We're trading economic markets, the situation is very fluid, and right or wrong you're not going to make money here without using skillfull and safe money management.
On a side note, I'm probably going to have a big, exciting announement for you all at some point over the next week. I look forward to continue making a good living trading and analyzing the markets and helping you all do the same.
PS - AU should hit 0.9300 in the next week or so and has a good chance to do so even with a relatively tight stop in the mid to high 0.8900's. Maybe a 30-40% chance to return 3-5 times your risk from here. More on this in the 10-8 daily signal.
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