Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey guys,
Some people pissed me off in yesterday's post so I was over there typing up a really long rant and the signal is coming out late. Anyways, the EUR/USD after a dip to a good region for a long (as discussed yesterday) had squeaked out to new highs for the week and should extend gains over the next several days. I honestly don't know how far it's going to go, but I think the 1.5000 level will be quite magnetic on the Euro, and 1.6500 is likely on GBP/USD.
Gold and Silver continue to plow higher, but I only like really long term trades there, so if we take another gold or silver position, it will be either long after a steep dip, or short at another potential top.
Stocks worked higher Wednesday after consolidating most of Tuesday. If you look through yesterday's post, I had some recommendations on a stock long trade as well that's working well. Right now I don't think we'll dip below 1040 on the S&P and we should see prices above 1080 in the next week or two. If we do dip below 1040, that's basically my mental stop on the flip to long stocks and I'll probably close it down and move to neutral.
In news Wednesday, we had an amazingly strong AU Employment release that sent the AUD/USD rocketing up. Honestly right now, the AU situation is the huge catalyst for a massive shift in sentiment towards risk appetite and USD weakness... I expect to see a continuing USD weak trend and AUD/USD strength at least to 0.9300 over the next week. It's not a super trade, but not a bad trade to try a long from here at 0.9030 with a TP around or just under 0.9300. It's just hard to pick a good SL when you chase something long. A safer SL would be around 0.8960, but a tighter SL (increases risk, but also net profits if it works) could be used just under 0.9000. We traded the news event in the trading room and we're long form 0.8985 a minute or two after the release, so that's the position I'm managing right now on that pair. In news Thursday:
0700 BoE Interest Rate Decision (no change at 0.50% expected) - The BoE is probably about the last central bank likely to raise interest rates right now, so don't expect a surprise hike out of them just yet, lol. The reaction will come primarily from their text statement, which is quite complicated this month and hard to preview here. There is a small chance though that they cut their renumeration rate, or the rate they pay on deposits. The likelihood they were going to do that has diminished greatly over the last 2 months, but if they do, it would be VERY bearish GBP and I'd recommend a long on EUR/GBP with an ambitious 50 pip short term TP, or swing trade TP's of several hundred pips.
0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision (no change at 1.00% expected) - The ECB will probably come out with no surprises as well here. They do not release a statement at 0745, but instead have a press conference around 0830 that lasts an hour or so. Trichet is expected to be a bit more hawkish at every meeting, but still very cautious and still quite a ways out from raising rates. The action (if any) will come from the press conference and any indications that the ECB is moving much closer to withdrawing or unwinding its special programs will see a lot of Euro strength. If it's just the same old blah blah avoiding saying anything concrete from Trichet though, usually the Euro gradually loses a bit of strength during the speech.
Some people pissed me off in yesterday's post so I was over there typing up a really long rant and the signal is coming out late. Anyways, the EUR/USD after a dip to a good region for a long (as discussed yesterday) had squeaked out to new highs for the week and should extend gains over the next several days. I honestly don't know how far it's going to go, but I think the 1.5000 level will be quite magnetic on the Euro, and 1.6500 is likely on GBP/USD.
Gold and Silver continue to plow higher, but I only like really long term trades there, so if we take another gold or silver position, it will be either long after a steep dip, or short at another potential top.
Stocks worked higher Wednesday after consolidating most of Tuesday. If you look through yesterday's post, I had some recommendations on a stock long trade as well that's working well. Right now I don't think we'll dip below 1040 on the S&P and we should see prices above 1080 in the next week or two. If we do dip below 1040, that's basically my mental stop on the flip to long stocks and I'll probably close it down and move to neutral.
In news Wednesday, we had an amazingly strong AU Employment release that sent the AUD/USD rocketing up. Honestly right now, the AU situation is the huge catalyst for a massive shift in sentiment towards risk appetite and USD weakness... I expect to see a continuing USD weak trend and AUD/USD strength at least to 0.9300 over the next week. It's not a super trade, but not a bad trade to try a long from here at 0.9030 with a TP around or just under 0.9300. It's just hard to pick a good SL when you chase something long. A safer SL would be around 0.8960, but a tighter SL (increases risk, but also net profits if it works) could be used just under 0.9000. We traded the news event in the trading room and we're long form 0.8985 a minute or two after the release, so that's the position I'm managing right now on that pair. In news Thursday:
0700 BoE Interest Rate Decision (no change at 0.50% expected) - The BoE is probably about the last central bank likely to raise interest rates right now, so don't expect a surprise hike out of them just yet, lol. The reaction will come primarily from their text statement, which is quite complicated this month and hard to preview here. There is a small chance though that they cut their renumeration rate, or the rate they pay on deposits. The likelihood they were going to do that has diminished greatly over the last 2 months, but if they do, it would be VERY bearish GBP and I'd recommend a long on EUR/GBP with an ambitious 50 pip short term TP, or swing trade TP's of several hundred pips.
0745 ECB Interest Rate Decision (no change at 1.00% expected) - The ECB will probably come out with no surprises as well here. They do not release a statement at 0745, but instead have a press conference around 0830 that lasts an hour or so. Trichet is expected to be a bit more hawkish at every meeting, but still very cautious and still quite a ways out from raising rates. The action (if any) will come from the press conference and any indications that the ECB is moving much closer to withdrawing or unwinding its special programs will see a lot of Euro strength. If it's just the same old blah blah avoiding saying anything concrete from Trichet though, usually the Euro gradually loses a bit of strength during the speech.
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