Forex Trading Signal 11/07/07

Felix Homogratus

Commander in Chief
This is Felix.

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Earlier this week we had UK Industrial Production. This indicator did not work well for the last few months. It actually came out worse than expected: -0.4% versus 0.2% expected. I was very pleased to see a 50 pips move on GBP/USD as it opened around 2.0853 and it the first 30 minutes of the report it reached 2.0803. I would consider trading this indicator next month because it seems like it really worked this month.

Then we had U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index coming out. It came out a little bit better. GBP/USD opened at 2.0804 and it went up to reach 2.0821 so it was 15 pips max, and then it retraced for the first hour. It was a dog indicator.

On Tuesday we had Australian Interest rate statement coming out. As I said, a rate hike to 6.75% was highly expected, and they did in fact hike the rate. We saw a pretty nasty move on AUD/USD. This was supposed to be a no trade, nothing to catch here.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

We are pretty flat on European and U.S. reports. We do have Non-Farm Productivity at 8:30 a.m. New York time but just be aware of some strange price actions but I would not trade this indicator as it does not have enough good track record for me.

1. Wednesday, November 7th, 2007 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 4:45 p.m. New York time we will have New Zealand Unemployment Rate and Employment change out of New Zealand. That could be interesting. Unemployment rate is expected to come out at 3.6%, and Unemployment rate is more important than the Employment change even although it should depend one on another. This is quarterly indicator, and I think if it comes out at 3.5% or below, and Employment Change does not conflict, we may see NZD/USD go up by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. On the other hand, if the Unemployment rate comes out at 3.8% or higher, and the Employment Change does not conflict, I think NZD/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If the Unemployment Rate conflicts with the Employment Change, I would suggest just skipping it. Remember, higher number on Unemployment Rate is negative and higher number on Employment Change is positive so one has to go higher and another one has to go lower, or one has to go lower and another one has to go higher.

2. Wednesday, November 7th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. New York time we will have Employment Change coming out of Australia. It is expected to come out at 21 K. I think if it comes out at 35 K or higher, AUD/USD may possibly go up by 35 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If it reads 5 K or less, I think AUD/USD may possibly go down by 35 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If the deviation is much bigger then we may see much bigger move; if the deviation is smaller then we may still see a move but it may be much smaller one.

* Report: Australian Employment Change
* Buy on AUD/USD if the number will be 35 K or higher
* Sell on AUD/USD if the number will be 5 K or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 35 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report

That's pretty much all for tomorrow.

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Have a nice day. Thank you very much.

To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus
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Hi Felix

:confused: Hi felix, i use ur signals but still make lots of loses, i think i need a trading strategy.
Could u help me with that,
I'ld be grateful to hear personally from you.


Well, I made 30 pips from the FBA Interest Rate decision, because as the signal said, the comments from the FBA all pointed to a further interest rate hike in future to contain the growing inflation.

The pair actually moved 41 pips before a retracement occured, but the pair still ended up much higher.

This was a much better trade than the Non-Farm payrolls.

So Felix, don't disbelieve yourself. Your signal was spot on.;)


hi AUD/USD up

hi the interest rate went well but i made a very costly mistake while trading i Hit the SHORT button instead of long and things are turning out bad for me I hope to get out quick possible retracement when the news on US Farms buzzes out that my hope
thanks all the same


Hello and...

First of all I want to say Hi to everybody. I am new to this forum and also new to forex so I hope to learn as much from you guys as I can.

My first question would be... what happend yesterday around 9:00 pm EST with EUR/USD?? I dont recall reading any important news going on at this time. I was using my Oanda FXgame account (thank God because I went short) and all of a sudden the pair went up 100 pips!
I come here this morning and nobody talked about that spike so my guess is that either oanda exagerated the uptrend or I completely missed important info.

Any comments?


What happened last night?

The reason their was such a huge spike last night was because China came out and said they are going to move some of their currency investments from the USD into the EUR - this is of course bad news for the dollar and good news for the EUR. This is not however the first time they have said this but for some reason the market really reacted. My charting platform showed a range of 112 pips on the hourly chart. This is called a "tape bomb" and there is no way you could have foreseen it as far as I know. This is why we use stops!!