Forex Trading Signal 12/01/08

Crazy Cat

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hi there my Forex friend :)

I hope you had a good weekend.

Let's talk about Monday.

1. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI. I looked at this report and I think it is not tradable. Sir Pips also thinks to skip it.

2. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then we will have Canadian GDP. I looked at the charts, it seems it is better than UK Manufacturing PMI but still not reliable enough to enter a trade. In fact, it even goes against the number. Perhaps trying to trade against it might not be a bad idea but I will personally skip it. Sir Pips also recommends to skip it.

3. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. If you look at last month chart, we had -2.6 deviation and within 3 minutes GBP/USD went down by 100 pips. Wow, great trade except........ yes, it went down, not up. EUR/USD went down by nearly 40 pips as well. USD/JPY also went... down, also around 40 pips (at least good direction). So did EUR/JPY (65 pips down). Two months ago we had crazy deviation and overall GBP/USD (with a temporary spike up) went down. So did USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Therefore, it seems it is tradable with 2.0 deviation but do NOT trade GBP/USD or EUR/USD. You can trade USD/JPY, or even better, EUR/JPY. If it comes out lower than expected by 2.0 (-2.0 deviation), EUR/JPY should move down by 40 to 50 pips. If it deviates by +2.0, then EUR/JPY should go up by 40 to 50 pips. Again, do not trade GBP/USD or EUR/USD on this (or you can try to trade against it but be careful as trading against is always risky).

4. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales. I used to love this indicator but since the Australian government cut funds to do necessary researches, this indicator got screw up. We will also have Interest Rate decision that day so the market will be focused on the IR, not RS.

5. Monday, December 1st, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales. Last two months we had amazing spike trades. It is expected they will cut the rates from 5.25% to 4.50%. If they cut the rates to 4.75%, we might see a 40+ pips spike up on AUD/USD and then reversal. If they cut the rates by 1% to 4.25%, then AUD/USD should go down by 40+ pips and it will probably reverse as well. Be careful with the buy trigger, and obviously the less they cut, the more strong buy signal would be.

That's all for Monday.

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To Our Success!
-Crazy Cat && Sir Pip