Forex Trading Signal 8-28-2009

Sir Pipsalot

Former FPA Special Consultant
Hey folks,

Well, yesterday I thought it was likely we'd see a pop higher on the Euro and that would present a selling opportunity. It looks like someone big sold USD hard around 2:10PM EST today and it forced the Euro and most other pairs up over 100 pips in about 25 minutes. These illiquid summer vacation markets make it tough to set swing trades because the big moves seem to come off somewhat random high volume orders like that. In any case, the nice move up has presented us with better prices for a position trade sell; however, there may be enough technical strength behind it to turn the tables on the underlying trend a bit, so I'm going to advocate a wait and see approach and continue to hold short for now, but refrain from adding extra to it despite the nice price. Shorter term, look for breaks of 1.4338 to find follow through down and keep a close eye on 1.4450 if things stay strong on the Euro tomorrow.

In Gold and Silver, we continue to range, and my advice remains unchanged from the rest of the signals this week (feel free to check them on your own).

In stocks, we got even more choppy consolidation today, but again, the eventual break-out from this range will most likely be a break higher; however, once that break higher seems to be topping out, that may end up being a great point to initiate an ambitious position trade sell trade as the likelihood of a very large impending selloff starts to come about. In news Friday:

0430 UK GDP 2Q Prelim (-0.8% expected) -- We've seen a lot of news do poorly this week, but decent surprises on UK GDP have such a good track record that they should do well despite the current low volume conditions unless they're somehow leaked ahead of time.
If it comes out at -0.6% or higher, GBP/USD should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at -1.0% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off 40 pips.

0830 US Personal Spending (0.2% expected) -- Personal spending numbers are coming out, but with Income and PCE data coming out at the same time, we could get a lot of mess and I'm going to recommend sitting this one out. Especially with the whipsaw type price action we saw with good GDP numbers out of the US on Thursday, but a bad deflator number... there's a lot of potential for whipsaws if any of the data comes out mixed.

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To our success,
Sir Pipsalot