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Forex Trading Signal 9-10-2009

Discussion in 'Current Forex Trading Signals' started by Sir Pipsalot, Sep 10, 2009.

  1. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Hey folks,

    Well, my wife and I are both back from the hospital now and I've caught up on the markets so I should be back now for trading and signal calling. Thanks for all the well wishes for myself and my family... I sincerely do appreciate it.

    In the markets, we got a nice leg up on Gold, and the EUR/USD as expected, and unfortunately we've seen some stock market strength along with that as I feared in my Sunday night signal. I told the Diamonds room (and maybe I mentioned it here, but I forget when) that I expected the EUR/USD to make new highs above 1.4450 and top out in the 1.46-1.4700 range. I still think that forecast is pretty decent, but I'm leaning more towards the upper end of that target range. There's a good chance the former 1.4719 highs will act as both key resistance, and a bit of a magnet for the EUR/USD, so while I've closed our swing trade long from 1.4219 here around 1.4600 to be safe, I believe the Euro will have another leg higher to the 1.4700 area and that might present a good shorting opportunity. There's a chance we could bust through 1.4719 and push even higher, but I feel the resistance there is good enough, and the recent run up extended enough to call for a short from that level should we make it up there soon. This recent USD weakening push (that we really saw coming late last week) is potentially the last of this entire Spring/Summer rally and should end in a reversal towards a stronger USD. We picked a nice potential top for that rally on August 4th with a position trade short from around 1.4380, but seeing the downside still too well-supported, we exited that position/bias late last week for a small profit as we will be able to short from higher levels soon. The same selloff we were looking for will still likely happen, but following this shorter term rally currently underway.

    Gold's advance hit our minimum target of breaking those $1007 highs getting some nice profits on that swing long from $976, but it looks like gold has one more nice push in it that should take it past Tuesday's highs. I have my final TP for that swing trade at $1035 based on some triangle breakout projections.

    Like I said on stocks in the Monday 9-7 signal, whatever the market does on Tuesday is likely to continue to be the theme for the week, and with a good positive day on Tuesday, we saw further strength Wednesday. At this point, I expect stocks to make some new recovery highs and peak out somewhere in the 1050 to 1100 range. I think just too many people were betting on this downturn, and the market needs another good rally to fool some of the bears into giving up before making a more permanent turn down. Statistical optimism is still at or near very peakish extremes though, so picking this top exactly is going to prove difficult, and may come sooner or later than expected, so if you can give it plenty of room... it makes sense to stay short through this rally; however, if you want to be more nimble and trade a bit shorter term here and there as I do, I've exited my shorts and flipped long on the market at 1029 (would have done it on Tueday but was busy with baby/hospital) on the S&P via futures. If I'm going to hold a short and risk being early, I'd rather pick a better price that's higher than here and near some key resistance. If we end up merely double topping here or the short term upside is less than spectacular, I won't mind missing out on the selloff to wait for a bit more confirmation.

    In news Wednesday, we saw a no change move cause at least a quick jolt down on NZD/USD by 30-40 pips as Cactus Jack said it probably would, but the move was short-lived and quickly reversed. AU Employment Change came out lower than expected, but not shockingly so, so there was a quick reaction downwards, but no follow-through to further lows after the initial move. In news Thursday:

    0700 BoE Interest Rate Decision (no change at 0.50% unanimously expected) - The opportunity here will not be so much from an interest rate move, but from any further alterations to their Asset Purchase Facility (APF). Last month they raised the amount by 50 billion pounds and the minutes from that meeting showed that 3 members including Mervyn King himself wanted an even larger increase of 75 billion.
    If they leave the total allocation for the APF unchanged, the GBP/USD will likely rally 30-40 pips.
    If they increase the total allocation for the APF by 25 billion pounds or more, GBP/USD will likely fall 30-40 pips.

    0900 Canada Interest Rate Decision (no change at 0.25% unanimously expected) - As with most interest rate decisions nowadays, there is very little chance we'll see rates move. Most of the price action will come in response to commentary made by the central bank in their interest rate statment. Based on my research, I think most people are expecting the BoC to try to talk down the strong CAD with their commentary, so we may see a situation where the CAD is weak heading into the news, but whipsaws into strength shortly after the dovish commentary as people cover their CAD shorts. One good way to play this is to wait for the commentary to be released at about 0900 EST and if it does indeed cause a short term spike up in USD/CAD, wait for signs of a top in those first minute or two and look to short it for a reversal back to and probably through prerelease.

    TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
    Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
    To our success,
    Sir Pipsalot
     
  2. mechtech63

    mechtech63 Corporal

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    Welcome baby

    Welcome home baby Naomi Sora and mom. Sir Pips, enjoy them both. Now you have a little daddy's girl. She is going to make you so happy...it helps to take the sting of having to change those diapers. :D
     
  3. Mark Harding

    Mark Harding Corporal

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    Well done on your calls SP.
     
  4. Sly10

    Sly10 Recruit

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    welcome the baby girl...

    Thank you Sir Pips A lot... God bless you and your family. Thanks for the signal service you gave.
     
  5. nayani

    nayani Private

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    Congrats sir

    Congrats sir pips and welcome home baby Naomi Sora.

    Thank you very much for signals
     
  6. horseshoe44

    horseshoe44 Recruit

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    Congratulations (MUNA MAKA MURNA)

    Just to congratulate you and your family, may the new born bring you joy and happiness. MUNA MAKA MURNA is how we say congratulations in Hausa language in Nigeria.
     
  7. fahd

    fahd Recruit

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    Congratulations

    Hope your daughter brings u lots of joys!!!!!!
    Many Congrats
     
  8. Real Managers

    Real Managers Banned again

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    Congrats

    E ku Orire o! that mean congratulations in Yoruba language, also in Nigeria.
    lol

    Ben Benanke
     
  9. mechtech63

    mechtech63 Corporal

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    Whoa, on the EUR/USD

    Sir Pips,

    Can you give us any update on the EUR/USD pair? They have gone wacky this morn. Does this blow out your prediction for long?
     
  10. Sir Pipsalot

    Sir Pipsalot Former FPA Special Consultant

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    Apparently there was some intervention or rumored intervention by the SNB this morning, but that quickly reversed and things still look fine for a short term rally to the 1.4700 region, which will set up a medium to long term shorting opportunity from that area. If you're long though, I would start trailing the SL a bit in case it tops out hard early. I'm personally out awaiting the short opportunity with almost 400 pips on the last portion of my long since I got in low enough (1.4219), I don't want to sweat the end of the move here. I'm trying to focus more medium term so I can spend extra time helping my newborn and healing wife this week.
     
    #10 Sir Pipsalot, Sep 10, 2009
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2009

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