Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
The USD has stayed weak as anticipated and should still weaken further pushing EUR/USD near 1.4700 probably later on Friday. The EUR/USD seems to be pushing up and possibly through a fourth wave type triangle pattern that will lead to a fifth wave breakout up to a high in that area. Picking tops can be difficult and frustrating, so exercise caution, but definitely keep an eye out for toppish price action in that region for a short.
Gold has stayed pretty strong and is likely due for a similar final run up like the Euro. I think 1035 is a good conservative, attainable target for anyone still holding a long, but we could definitely see more as high as 1080 or so.
Stocks have continued their upward push from Tuesday to new 2009 highs on the S&P 500 and should continue higher until at least 1050-55, and possibly as high as 1100. I'm short term long as I mentioned yesterday and will start taking some profit at 1050 and be a bit patient trying to pick the top on this move.
In news Thursday, the BoE decided to keep their APF unchanged, and the GBP/USD gained 70 pips quickly, had a nice pullback, and then managed a sustained rally up for the rest of the day in line with our short term long GU and EU bias. The CAD interest rate statment also produced a quick USD/CAD long covering selloff good for 30-40 quick pips as somewhat predicted in yesterday's statement, but there was such a quick whipsaw it may have been hard to work with. In news Friday:
0955 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (67.5 expected) - I think a +3.5 trigger and -4.5 trigger are appropriate because either level will put the figure at it's lowest level since April, or it's highest level since Sept 2009. One big thing to look out for is leaky price action. The Univ of Mich is not a secure institution and some people may have access to the data earlier than 0955 EST. If there's some obvious price action lower or higher on the EUR/JPY in the minutes leading up to 0955, it might be worth following and gambling on before the number comes out. Because of this lack of security, this number rarely creates good large sharp spikes like some other news; however, it's often a big factor in large early market equity moves and corresponding moves in risk appetite or risk aversion on the yen crosses.
If it comes out at 71.0 or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 63.0 or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 40 pips.
I know some of you might find yourself thinking I (and many other analysts out there) keep saying about stocks "oh this is the top, no wait, this is the top... no wait, this is the real top." The bullish price action to date might fool you into thinking that trying to get long term short in this market is a fool's errand. However, if you look through the signals, each "top" I have called (2 so far) has had some follow-through and has been exited with either some profit or a reasonably small loss due to good money management. I feel very confident based on the fundamentals and technicals that this market is going to turn south very hard at some point in the not too distant future. The hard part is designing the right trade to make money on that. My approach is find good medium term tops that have a good chance to turn into long term tops and cherry pick those with a long term focused trade and a reasonably tight and flexible mental stop loss.
These bear market rallies are designed in nature to fool everyone, including all of the bears, into turning bullish in extremes of optimism right before it turns lower. I think one of the big reasons why we're pushing higher into another rally is that too many analysts and traders (myself included) really thought we were setting a major high. The market likes to take popular opinion like that and go against it to hurt as many people as possible. Try to find the right balance of accepting the will of the market (like me, I'm short term long), but keeping a stubborn eye on the big picture (waiting for another long term short setup). Short term trades can be good money here and there and are more fun and frequent, but long term trades can earn a whole lot more money with a lot less effort and time spent. Also, having a good grasp of long term market direction can be a great help with managing your other investments.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
The USD has stayed weak as anticipated and should still weaken further pushing EUR/USD near 1.4700 probably later on Friday. The EUR/USD seems to be pushing up and possibly through a fourth wave type triangle pattern that will lead to a fifth wave breakout up to a high in that area. Picking tops can be difficult and frustrating, so exercise caution, but definitely keep an eye out for toppish price action in that region for a short.
Gold has stayed pretty strong and is likely due for a similar final run up like the Euro. I think 1035 is a good conservative, attainable target for anyone still holding a long, but we could definitely see more as high as 1080 or so.
Stocks have continued their upward push from Tuesday to new 2009 highs on the S&P 500 and should continue higher until at least 1050-55, and possibly as high as 1100. I'm short term long as I mentioned yesterday and will start taking some profit at 1050 and be a bit patient trying to pick the top on this move.
In news Thursday, the BoE decided to keep their APF unchanged, and the GBP/USD gained 70 pips quickly, had a nice pullback, and then managed a sustained rally up for the rest of the day in line with our short term long GU and EU bias. The CAD interest rate statment also produced a quick USD/CAD long covering selloff good for 30-40 quick pips as somewhat predicted in yesterday's statement, but there was such a quick whipsaw it may have been hard to work with. In news Friday:
0955 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (67.5 expected) - I think a +3.5 trigger and -4.5 trigger are appropriate because either level will put the figure at it's lowest level since April, or it's highest level since Sept 2009. One big thing to look out for is leaky price action. The Univ of Mich is not a secure institution and some people may have access to the data earlier than 0955 EST. If there's some obvious price action lower or higher on the EUR/JPY in the minutes leading up to 0955, it might be worth following and gambling on before the number comes out. Because of this lack of security, this number rarely creates good large sharp spikes like some other news; however, it's often a big factor in large early market equity moves and corresponding moves in risk appetite or risk aversion on the yen crosses.
If it comes out at 71.0 or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40 pips.
If it comes out at 63.0 or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 40 pips.
I know some of you might find yourself thinking I (and many other analysts out there) keep saying about stocks "oh this is the top, no wait, this is the top... no wait, this is the real top." The bullish price action to date might fool you into thinking that trying to get long term short in this market is a fool's errand. However, if you look through the signals, each "top" I have called (2 so far) has had some follow-through and has been exited with either some profit or a reasonably small loss due to good money management. I feel very confident based on the fundamentals and technicals that this market is going to turn south very hard at some point in the not too distant future. The hard part is designing the right trade to make money on that. My approach is find good medium term tops that have a good chance to turn into long term tops and cherry pick those with a long term focused trade and a reasonably tight and flexible mental stop loss.
These bear market rallies are designed in nature to fool everyone, including all of the bears, into turning bullish in extremes of optimism right before it turns lower. I think one of the big reasons why we're pushing higher into another rally is that too many analysts and traders (myself included) really thought we were setting a major high. The market likes to take popular opinion like that and go against it to hurt as many people as possible. Try to find the right balance of accepting the will of the market (like me, I'm short term long), but keeping a stubborn eye on the big picture (waiting for another long term short setup). Short term trades can be good money here and there and are more fun and frequent, but long term trades can earn a whole lot more money with a lot less effort and time spent. Also, having a good grasp of long term market direction can be a great help with managing your other investments.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
