Forex Trading Signal 9-24-2009 (Go time!)

[cosmopolit]

In news Thursday, there's one good trade worth watching:

1000 US Exisiting Home Sales (5.35M expected) - On a decent deviation, usually this can get the EUR/JPY and stocks cooking for a solid short to medium term move. Usually the move takes at least a few minutes to reach it's potential and on some pairs can create a nice trend for 30-60 minutes.
If it comes out at 5.50M or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 60+ pips.
If it comes out at 5.20M or lower, EUR/JPY should fall 60+ pips.

I just wonder how did you manage to pick up the only pair that will not react to the news
as expected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD all nicely moved down 60-80
pips after EHS went out at 5.10M, but only EUR/JPY moved in the opposite direction.

EUR and JPY both seem to be a little overbought, so the correct signal should have been:
if EHS comes out much better than expected -- buy USD/JPY,
if EHS comes out much worse than expected -- sell EUR/USD.

 

[mechtech63]

Sive Morton says...

Sive says that we should not go in until the EUR/USD hits 1.4900 or 1.5100. This is stated in his Sept 24 weekly analysis. Trying to figure if he wrote thid to early in the week, as we are 200 pips lower and Sir Pips called a "go time".

The info from both of them is conflicting...however I lean on Sir Pips as I have seen his daily calls are dead-on. Their may be some retracement upwards, but nothing like 200 or 300 points. I think Sir Pips hopefully say that we have turned for the down.

 

[Sir Pipsalot]

I just wonder how did you manage to pick up the only pair that will not react to the news
as expected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD all nicely moved down 60-80
pips after EHS went out at 5.10M, but only EUR/JPY moved in the opposite direction.

Well, we've hit some major trend shifts and I tried to pick out the right pair in advance, but it was pretty clear the USD/JPY was having none of it after the release making EUR/JPY not hit its targets. In the room we noticed this immediately and traded on EUR/USD. Can't win 'em all, but at least EUR/JPY range traded for awhile and eventually broke lower on the bad US EHS.

 

[fxtradesman]

How do you come up with your target of 1300-2500 pips?

Hello:

I saw your post but I was wondering why or how you came up with 1300-2500 pips. Are you looking on the daily support line?

Thanks in advance.

 

[mechtech63]

Sir Pips 9-25 post is gone

Does anybody notice that the 9-25 post is gone? Was there a bit ago.

 

[sopel]

?

you're right, 25.9 post is gone... why ?

 

[lvelho]

25-9

I am looking for it too...

 

[Richie]

Also Mentioned

Sive says that we should not go in until the EUR/USD hits 1.4900 or 1.5100. This is stated in his Sept 24 weekly analysis. Trying to figure if he wrote thid to early in the week, as we are 200 pips lower and Sir Pips called a "go time".

The info from both of them is conflicting...however I lean on Sir Pips as I have seen his daily calls are dead-on. Their may be some retracement upwards, but nothing like 200 or 300 points. I think Sir Pips hopefully say that we have turned for the down.

He also stated to expect a draw down at the 1.4850 level due to an overbought situation and advised to hold long positions until 1.4820, i got out at 1.4845 but we topped out at 1.4847 and the downtrend began. I believe that the Bullish trend has new highs ahead, also the 1.4610 support level held strong closing with a low of 1.4615. Support level after 1.4610 is 1.4555 but if it reaches that low it will be clear the bullish trend is over! I still got open Buy Positions at 1.4733 with a TP of 1.4850.DAMN! This pair is currently real confusing at the moment

 

[Sir Pipsalot]

Guys, Sive is a different person and a different analyst. We do not hold little pow-wow's to make sure we're both on the same page. Sometimes we have similar outlooks, sometimes we disagree. I've been waiting for this turn on stocks and the USD for quite some time and feel very confident it has now taken place. I am very early in making this call, so it may take some time for more traditional technical indicators to start pointing south or for people with their mind wrapped around a weak USD to come around the other way.

If you really want to learn more about the ins and out of why I have these outlooks and make these calls and want to debate them with me, come join our trading service and I'll answer all the questions you want =P I feel though if you dig through the posts here and the info in the daily signals, you'll find a lot of answers on your own.