Sir Pipsalot
Former FPA Special Consultant
- Messages
- 511
Hey folks,
I feel the odds have shifted noticably against our USD long position trades, and I'd rather close them now than give them more time. I'm shifting into more of a buy on dips mode for the EU and GU, rather than the sell on rallies type disposition I've been using the last month or so. After some careful consideration, I've decided to exit out of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD position trade shorts. Based on the entries back much earlier in August, both should be able to be exited for some gain. I ended up making about 400 pips on the GU and depending on when you took the EU short, you should be anywhere from break even to up +130 pips here at 1.4255. Gold and Silver's strong break and move higher makes it very likely the EU and GU will strengthen further in the short to medium term before turning into an overdue major selloff. We will retry the short position trade again in the future most likely, but I feel like if we wait, we can reenter at higher levels.
In stocks, we had a modest move higher over 1000, but I'd rather wait for a bit more before adding to my short position. I still think somewhere in the 1010-1015 range is a great spot to get short if you're not in already or to add short if you've already gotten in and feel like putting more on the table. Again, as I said yesterday, I feel there's about a 70% chance we posted the high for the year in August at 1039 and have started the first stages of a significant turnaround south in stocks. On Monday I got aggressively short, and since then price action has further confirmed my view. A good NFP number Friday though could give us a nice spike up in stocks which I would see as nothing more than a shorting opportunity as I doubt that strength will hold indefinitely.
On Gold and Silver, fortunately I called for an exit of those position trade shorts last night around $976 and $15.45, and I even called a swing trade long on gold at $976 (see 9-3-2009 signal post for more info). The strength here is off and running and we should see further gains on Gold to $1007 and higher over the next 3-10 days.
In news Thursday, the UK Services PMI and ECB Interest Rates came out as expected and Trichet offered no major surprises in his speech. In news Friday:
0700 CAD Employment (-15K expected) - This trade did quite well last month, so hopefully we'll get a repeat if there's a surprise worth trading (+/- 24K). Typically, when this news works, most of the move comes in the first 1-2 minutes, then there's either a fairly sharp retracement or long consolidation period. If you're nimble enough you could try to trade against the spike extreme in that first minute or two.
If it comes out at 9K or more positive, USD/CAD should sell off 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -39K or more negative, USD/CAD should rally 40+ pips.
0830 US NonFarm Employment Change (-230K expected) - Last month's preview strategy worked perfect on all fronts, so I'm planning to take exactly the same approaches this month. We've seen decent surprises 3 months in a row... two positive and one negative. In each case the EUR/USD and USD/JPY spiked in the same direction right away, but the EUR/USD wound up reversing hard while the USD/JPY kept chugging along. If we get a surprise and a big spike on the EUR/USD that might be running out of steam, look to play the reversal on EUR/USD. If you want to hold on to something and let it extend, trade the USD/JPY. If you want the biggest spike trade possible trade the EUR/JPY. Also, be careful to look out for revisions to prior numbers and the unemployment rate deviation (9.5% expected) and consider them just as significant as this month's surprise.
If it comes out at -160K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
If it comes out at -300K or lower, USD/JPY should sell off 50+ pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
I feel the odds have shifted noticably against our USD long position trades, and I'd rather close them now than give them more time. I'm shifting into more of a buy on dips mode for the EU and GU, rather than the sell on rallies type disposition I've been using the last month or so. After some careful consideration, I've decided to exit out of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD position trade shorts. Based on the entries back much earlier in August, both should be able to be exited for some gain. I ended up making about 400 pips on the GU and depending on when you took the EU short, you should be anywhere from break even to up +130 pips here at 1.4255. Gold and Silver's strong break and move higher makes it very likely the EU and GU will strengthen further in the short to medium term before turning into an overdue major selloff. We will retry the short position trade again in the future most likely, but I feel like if we wait, we can reenter at higher levels.
In stocks, we had a modest move higher over 1000, but I'd rather wait for a bit more before adding to my short position. I still think somewhere in the 1010-1015 range is a great spot to get short if you're not in already or to add short if you've already gotten in and feel like putting more on the table. Again, as I said yesterday, I feel there's about a 70% chance we posted the high for the year in August at 1039 and have started the first stages of a significant turnaround south in stocks. On Monday I got aggressively short, and since then price action has further confirmed my view. A good NFP number Friday though could give us a nice spike up in stocks which I would see as nothing more than a shorting opportunity as I doubt that strength will hold indefinitely.
On Gold and Silver, fortunately I called for an exit of those position trade shorts last night around $976 and $15.45, and I even called a swing trade long on gold at $976 (see 9-3-2009 signal post for more info). The strength here is off and running and we should see further gains on Gold to $1007 and higher over the next 3-10 days.
In news Thursday, the UK Services PMI and ECB Interest Rates came out as expected and Trichet offered no major surprises in his speech. In news Friday:
0700 CAD Employment (-15K expected) - This trade did quite well last month, so hopefully we'll get a repeat if there's a surprise worth trading (+/- 24K). Typically, when this news works, most of the move comes in the first 1-2 minutes, then there's either a fairly sharp retracement or long consolidation period. If you're nimble enough you could try to trade against the spike extreme in that first minute or two.
If it comes out at 9K or more positive, USD/CAD should sell off 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -39K or more negative, USD/CAD should rally 40+ pips.
0830 US NonFarm Employment Change (-230K expected) - Last month's preview strategy worked perfect on all fronts, so I'm planning to take exactly the same approaches this month. We've seen decent surprises 3 months in a row... two positive and one negative. In each case the EUR/USD and USD/JPY spiked in the same direction right away, but the EUR/USD wound up reversing hard while the USD/JPY kept chugging along. If we get a surprise and a big spike on the EUR/USD that might be running out of steam, look to play the reversal on EUR/USD. If you want to hold on to something and let it extend, trade the USD/JPY. If you want the biggest spike trade possible trade the EUR/JPY. Also, be careful to look out for revisions to prior numbers and the unemployment rate deviation (9.5% expected) and consider them just as significant as this month's surprise.
If it comes out at -160K or higher, USD/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
If it comes out at -300K or lower, USD/JPY should sell off 50+ pips.
TRADE LIVE WITH SIR PIPS FOR $39.00 FOR 2 WEEKS
Sir Pipsalot has a live trading room, in which he trades these news reports. There, he shares his trades in real time, including exact entries and exits, and detailed explanation for every entry and exit. The service costs $299 per month, but we have a 14-days $39.00 trial. Go to Forex Diamonds and take advantage of this offer. This offer is for NEW customers only.
To our success,
Sir Pipsalot
