Felix Homogratus
Commander in Chief
- Messages
- 153
This is Felix.
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon
I am sorry that the volume is so low so you will probably need a headphones to listen to my audio signal.
Let's now talk what happened earlier today.
I know I did not send you any signal for today as I did not trade recently but my partner Tim at ForexDiamonds room was trading, and there was one interesting opportunity - UK Nationwide House Prices. It came out at -0.8 versus 0.1 expected. It was quite a big drop on GPB/USD. Usually the price action on this indicator is quite dirty. The price opened at 2.0735, and within first 15 minutes it went to 2.0705. If you made money on this, congratulations. If you lost money because of a bad price action, there will be another opportunities.
Let's now talk about tomorrow, Friday.
1. Friday, November 30th, 2007 (1:45 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
First, we will have Swiss CPI y/y which is expected to come out at 1.5% versus 1.3%. I think if it comes out at 1.3%, same as last quarter, USD/CHF may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it reads 1.7% or higher, I think USD/CHF may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
SUMMARY:
* Report: Swiss CPI y/y
* Buy on USD/CHF if the number will be 1.3% or lower
* Sell on USD/CHF if the number will be 1.7% or higher
2. Friday, November 30th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then we will have Canadian GDP coming out at 8:30 a.m. The market is mostly talking about annualizing reading which is expected to come out at 2.2%; however, the m/m reading is also important. In my opinion, I would watch the m/m reading and make sure the annual does not conflict. If the m/m reads at 0.4% or higher, I think USD/CAD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report, and EUR/CAD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If on the other hand we will see a reading of -0.1% or more negative, I think the USD/CAD may possibly gain 30 pips or more, and EUR/CAD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
That's pretty much all for Friday. I would skip the Chicago PMI as it was not performing too well recently. You can use ForexBastards calendar effectively by clicking on the history icon and see how this indicator and other indicators performed in the past.
3. Sunday, December 2nd, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
On Sunday we have the Trade Balance coming out of Australia. We still don't have consensus for this indicator; however, last month it came out at -1.9B. Whenever the consensus gets posted which would be probably on Sunday right before this indicator, just add +1 B (+1000 M) to go long on AUD/USD, and probably expect a move of 35 pips in the first 30 minutes of the report. If on the other hand I see the number coming out worse by -1 B (-1000 M), I would go short on AUD/USD and expect a move of 35 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. Remember that this number is negative so when it came out more negative, that's worse, and when it comes out less negative, then it's better.
4. Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Monday we will have the UK Manufacturing PMI coming out at 4:30 a.m. New York time. This indicator has had very ugly history recently as the market did not care too much about it so I would just skip this indicator.
5. Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10 a.m. New York time will will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index coming out. This is a tough one because for the last 3 months as the manufacturing indicators have not been mattering what we had was readings very close to consensus so it is hard to judge what kind of market reaction it will do to this indicator. Probably this is the most important manufacturing indicator in the world because it is so old and so reputable. The forecast is 50.5, and I will go more conservative on this one. If the reading is 53 or higher, I would go short on GBP/USD and expect a move of 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If on the other hand we see a reading of 48 or lower, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would possibly go long on GBP/USD and expect a move of about 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. Don't get desperate on this one; try to get an entry after the initial spike within 10 pips of the pre-release price, maybe even less - depending on the price action.
6. Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. New York time we will have Retail Sales together will building approvals coming out of Australia. The consensus is not posted yet, previously we saw reading of 0.8% so I will assume the consensus would be to the lower end this month, maybe 0.3% or so. On Monday before the report look at the consensus. Whatever the consensus is, add 0.4 for a possible buy on AUD/USD, and subtract 0.4 for a possible sell on AUD/USD. So if it comes out higher than expected by 0.4%, I would go long on AUD/USD and expect a move of about 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out worse by -0.4% or more negative, I would go short on AUD/USD and expect a move of 40 pips or less in the first hour of the report.
That's all for this signal. I will send another one on Monday where I will review what happened, and I will talk about Tuesday.
I do strongly recommend you to go to Diamonds website where my partner Tim trades this indicators live so you can learn a lot how to trade these indicators, and of course trade with him on your own account by coping his entries and exits while you are learning. We do offer 21 days free trial so I strongly recommend you to go there and sign up, and learn everything you can at least within these 21 days.
Thank you so much, and I hope you will have a wonderful weekend.
To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus
If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on "play" icon
I am sorry that the volume is so low so you will probably need a headphones to listen to my audio signal.
Let's now talk what happened earlier today.
I know I did not send you any signal for today as I did not trade recently but my partner Tim at ForexDiamonds room was trading, and there was one interesting opportunity - UK Nationwide House Prices. It came out at -0.8 versus 0.1 expected. It was quite a big drop on GPB/USD. Usually the price action on this indicator is quite dirty. The price opened at 2.0735, and within first 15 minutes it went to 2.0705. If you made money on this, congratulations. If you lost money because of a bad price action, there will be another opportunities.
Let's now talk about tomorrow, Friday.
1. Friday, November 30th, 2007 (1:45 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
First, we will have Swiss CPI y/y which is expected to come out at 1.5% versus 1.3%. I think if it comes out at 1.3%, same as last quarter, USD/CHF may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it reads 1.7% or higher, I think USD/CHF may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
SUMMARY:
* Report: Swiss CPI y/y
* Buy on USD/CHF if the number will be 1.3% or lower
* Sell on USD/CHF if the number will be 1.7% or higher
2. Friday, November 30th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then we will have Canadian GDP coming out at 8:30 a.m. The market is mostly talking about annualizing reading which is expected to come out at 2.2%; however, the m/m reading is also important. In my opinion, I would watch the m/m reading and make sure the annual does not conflict. If the m/m reads at 0.4% or higher, I think USD/CAD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report, and EUR/CAD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If on the other hand we will see a reading of -0.1% or more negative, I think the USD/CAD may possibly gain 30 pips or more, and EUR/CAD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
That's pretty much all for Friday. I would skip the Chicago PMI as it was not performing too well recently. You can use ForexBastards calendar effectively by clicking on the history icon and see how this indicator and other indicators performed in the past.
3. Sunday, December 2nd, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
On Sunday we have the Trade Balance coming out of Australia. We still don't have consensus for this indicator; however, last month it came out at -1.9B. Whenever the consensus gets posted which would be probably on Sunday right before this indicator, just add +1 B (+1000 M) to go long on AUD/USD, and probably expect a move of 35 pips in the first 30 minutes of the report. If on the other hand I see the number coming out worse by -1 B (-1000 M), I would go short on AUD/USD and expect a move of 35 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. Remember that this number is negative so when it came out more negative, that's worse, and when it comes out less negative, then it's better.
4. Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Monday we will have the UK Manufacturing PMI coming out at 4:30 a.m. New York time. This indicator has had very ugly history recently as the market did not care too much about it so I would just skip this indicator.
5. Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10 a.m. New York time will will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index coming out. This is a tough one because for the last 3 months as the manufacturing indicators have not been mattering what we had was readings very close to consensus so it is hard to judge what kind of market reaction it will do to this indicator. Probably this is the most important manufacturing indicator in the world because it is so old and so reputable. The forecast is 50.5, and I will go more conservative on this one. If the reading is 53 or higher, I would go short on GBP/USD and expect a move of 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If on the other hand we see a reading of 48 or lower, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would possibly go long on GBP/USD and expect a move of about 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. Don't get desperate on this one; try to get an entry after the initial spike within 10 pips of the pre-release price, maybe even less - depending on the price action.
6. Monday, December 3rd, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. New York time we will have Retail Sales together will building approvals coming out of Australia. The consensus is not posted yet, previously we saw reading of 0.8% so I will assume the consensus would be to the lower end this month, maybe 0.3% or so. On Monday before the report look at the consensus. Whatever the consensus is, add 0.4 for a possible buy on AUD/USD, and subtract 0.4 for a possible sell on AUD/USD. So if it comes out higher than expected by 0.4%, I would go long on AUD/USD and expect a move of about 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out worse by -0.4% or more negative, I would go short on AUD/USD and expect a move of 40 pips or less in the first hour of the report.
That's all for this signal. I will send another one on Monday where I will review what happened, and I will talk about Tuesday.
I do strongly recommend you to go to Diamonds website where my partner Tim trades this indicators live so you can learn a lot how to trade these indicators, and of course trade with him on your own account by coping his entries and exits while you are learning. We do offer 21 days free trial so I strongly recommend you to go there and sign up, and learn everything you can at least within these 21 days.
Thank you so much, and I hope you will have a wonderful weekend.
To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus
Last edited by a moderator:
