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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 13/10/2009

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Forexpros2, Oct 13, 2009.

  1. Forexpros2

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 13, 2009


    ---

    Euro Dollar

    As expected, the Euro jumped after breaking 1.4725, but the rise stopped just above 1.48, exactly like what happened last Thursday (yesterday's high 1.4812, Thursday's high 1.4816). It seems like reaching the resistance area 1.4808-1.4816 has become a problem for the Euro, since it failed twice at the same area. The falling trendline from yesterdays high, on the intraday charts, will provide the most important resistance for the short-term at 1.4788, and this resistance is the key to break the hard area 1.4808-1.4816, and the well known resistance which is just above it 1.4826, then may be new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. Support is at 1.4728, a break here would signal more of the drop, to test one or some of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.

    Support:
    • 1.4728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
    • 1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
    • 1.4574: Previous intraday support.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4788: the falling trendline from yesterday's high on intraday charts.
    • 1.4826: previous daily high.
    • 1.4901: previous daily high.

    ---


    USD/JPY


    The Dollar-Yen failed to capitalize on the break of 90.29. And although the falling trendline on the 4H was broken, the falling trendline on the hourly chart was not, and price stopped just below it, near the well known resistance 90.40. We will shift attention towards the trendline on the hourly chart, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.29, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. Short-term support is at 89.32, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.

    Support:
    • 89.21: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
    • 89.01: Fibonacci 61.8% , and the most important support for the short-term.
    • 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

    Resistance:
    • 90.37: the falling trendline on the hourly chart, plus the resistance that stopped yesterday's rise.
    • 90.67: previous support.
    • 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

     
  2. Forexpros2

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    Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 14/10/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct. 14, 2009

    ---

    Traders in the U.S await tomorrow's publication of the Department of Labor's monthly CPI measurement (Oct 15).

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy.
    The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer.
    It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US.
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
    Analysts forecast no change in the current rate, standing at 0.10%

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    Finally, the Euro reached new tops for this year, and came very close to our favorite target 1.4901 (the high until this very moment is 1.4898). By taking a look at the drawn channel we find that the important question now is will 1.50 be the next stop? To answer this question, we must estimate the strength of the resistance levels in this area, especially 1.4901 & 1.4953. We expect that in case of a break 1.4901, the Euro will be able to reach 1.50. But, if 1.4901 succeeds in capping the price, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to 1.4793 first, and if broken, we can expect more drop. The important support now is the nearby 1.4872, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. To summarize: 1.4901 is resistance of the day, a break would lead to 1.50, while the support of the day is 1.4872, and a break here would lead to 1.4793 as the first important stop, and if broken we will head to the important support on the intraday charts 1.4755.

    Support:
    • 1.4874: short-term support.
    • 1.4793: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
    • 1.4755: the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4901: previous daily high.
    • 1.4953: previous daily high.
    • 1.5000: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    The Dollar-Yen dropped to 89 again, and we might see it test 88.68 today. But before that, we need to see a break of 88.96, which is the most important support for the short-term, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break. We will still pay attention towards the trendline on the hourly chart, which is currently at 90.27, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.27, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63.

    Support:
    • 88.96: short-term support.
    • 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
    • 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

    Resistance:
    • 90.27: the falling trendline on the hourly chart.
    • 90.67: previous support.
    • 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  3. Forexpros2

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    Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 15/10/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 15, 2009


    Free webinar - Spotting behavioral and fundamental clues in the market to catch giant price moves


    Tomorrow (Oct 15) The US Treasury Department will publish the monthly Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions Report.

    The report measures the monthly difference in value between US purchases of long-term foreign securities and foreign purchases of US long-term securities.
    The TIC flows is a key resource of the US government for offsetting the Trade Deficit. It can give a good reflection on demand for USD
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
    Analysts predict last month's measurement of 15.30B to fall to 11.00B.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    As expected, the Euro continued its rise, but until this very moment did not reach our target of 1.50. By taking a look at the two drawn channels, we see that they unite just above 1.50, which gives this area a lot of importance. And we assume very reasonably that this area is one of the best candidates to change short-term direction. Thus we must keep an open eye towards any reversal signals that could appear here. On the other hand, if it is broken, we will get closer to 1.51, since we see the next stop as 1.5082, on the way to higher prices. The short-term support now is the nearby 1.4933, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. And if this is the case, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4782 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts), and if broken, we can expect more drop.

    Support:
    • 1.4933: short-term support.
    • 1.4849: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
    • 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4962: previous daily high.
    • 1.5011: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
    • 1.5082: previous daily high.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Price could neither break the resistance 90.27, nor the support 88.96 (which was exactly the lowest price after the issuance of the report), and that is why we spent the whole day in a very tight range. What is worth notice this morning, that the falling trendline from 90.44 on the hourly chart, has many touch points with the price. And we will adopt it as resistance of the day. Breaking it would give the chance to test another slightly more important line which is the falling trendline from 95.05, currently at 90.29, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. breaking 90.29 means that the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. As for the support, it will stay as it was in yesterday's report 88.96, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.

    Support:
    • 88.96: short-term support.
    • 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
    • 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

    Resistance:
    • 89.64: the falling trendline on the hourly chart from 90.44
    • 90.29: the falling trendline on the hourly chart from 95.05.
    • 91.12: previous support & resistance area.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
    .
     
  4. Forexpros2

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 19/10/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 19, 2009



    Traders await the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) decision on short term interest rate which will be announced tomorrow (Tuesday, 20/10).

    The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.
    Analysts predict the interest rate to remain stable at 0.25%.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    As expected, Failure to break 1.4962 twice, drove the Euro down to the bottom of the channel drawn on the hourly & intraday charts, reaching this bottom with accuracy as we can note on the charts. Failure at 1.4962 could be a signal of a change in trend before reaching the top of the channel. Thus we must keep an open eye towards any reversal signals that could appear here. Short-term support is Fibonacci support 1.4849, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. And if this is the case, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4782 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term), and if broken, we can expect more drop. Short-term resistance is 1.4899, it is the key to reach 1.50 and the top of the channel.

    Support:
    • 1.4849: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
    • 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.
    • 1.4723: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4480.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4899: short-term resistance.
    • 1.4966: Thursday's high, and the resistance that stopped the price twice.
    • 1.5032: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    The Dollar-Yen stayed above the important support 90.14, and reached 91.31 on Friday. It seems that it stopped close to the upper limit of the rising channel drawn on the chart. The most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise. As for the support, the most important support is the retest level of the broken trendline, and Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 90.07, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.

    Support:
    • 90.36: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
    • 90.07: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the retest level for the broken trendline.
    • 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

    Resistance:
    • 90.97: the falling trendline from Friday's top on intraday charts.
    • 91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
    • 91.93: Sep 2nd low.
    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
    .
     
  5. Forexpros2

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 20/09/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 20, 2009


    Tomorrow (Oct 21) The Bank of England's (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will publish its record of the committee's interest rate meeting held two weeks ago.

    The meeting gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK, and records the votes of the individual members of the Committee.
    If the BOE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke the yesterday's resistance 1.4899, and reached the first target of this break 1.4966, and came close to 1.50 (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.4993). We will adopt this top as resistance of the day, if broken we will head with the Euro to the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.5040, and may be we will reach the highest level since Aug 2008, at the resistance 1.5082. on the other hand, the support 1.4964 obviously held during the last few hours, that is why we will consider it the short-term most important support. And if broken, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4828 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4891 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term), and if broken, we can expect more drop.

    Support:
    • 1.4964: lowest price on intraday charts during the last few hours.
    • 1.4891: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
    • 1.4842-1.4849: The support area which contains the lows of Thursday & Friday.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4993: short-term resistance.
    • 1.5040: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
    • 1.5082: previous daily high.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    The Dollar-Yen stopped exactly at the first resistance in yesterday's report (highest price after the issuance of yesterday's report is 90.97), and it did not break the support at 90.07, which means that yesterday's movement did not have any technical impact, and did not break the important support nor the important resistance. The most important support is the retest level of the broken trendline, and Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 90.07, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived 2 weeks ago an attempt for a break. As for the resistance, the most important one is 90.73, the top of the falling channel on the intraday charts, and the key to the most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise.

    Support:
    • 90.07: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the retest level for the broken trendline.
    • 89.64: the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
    • 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

    Resistance:
    • 90.73: the falling trendline from Friday's top on intraday charts.
    • 91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
    • 91.93: Sep 2nd low.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  6. Forexpros2

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 21/10/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 21, 2009


    The US Department of Labor will publish its weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report Tomorrow (22 Oct).

    The Report is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week.
    The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
    Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
    Analysts forecast last week’s measure of 514.00K to rise to 518.00K.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    The Euro broke the yesterday's support 1.4964, and reached the first target of this break, and Fibonacci important support 1.4891, tested it strongly, but eventually it survived (yesterday's low 1.4881). We will adopt this support level as support of the day, because if it holds, this would mean that the short-term correction is already over, and that we are heading to areas above yesterday's high 1.4993. But, if broken, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4480, and if this is the case, targets will not be less than 1.4797, and may be 1.4737 also. Short-term resistance is 1.4950, and if broken, we will head with the Euro to the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.5048, and may be we will reach the highest level since Aug 2008, at the resistance 1.5082. The support level at 1.4891 is the most important level for today, and is the line separating positive areas from negative.

    Support:
    • 1.4891: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
    • 1.4842-1.4849: The support area which contains the lows of Thursday & Friday.
    • 1.4797: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move from 1.4480.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4950: short-term resistance.
    • 1.5000: psychological level.
    • 1.5048: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    The Dollar-Yen with amazing accuracy at the first support in yesterday's report (lowest price after the issuance of yesterday's report is 90.06), and then rose to 91.05, breaking 90.73 on the way, but what followed was a modest move. The most important support is the Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 89.77, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived 2 weeks ago an attempt for a break. As for the resistance, the most important one is 90.90, and the key to the most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise.

    Support:
    • 89.77: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
    • 89.38: Oct 7th high.
    • 88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.

    Resistance:
    • 90.90: short-term resistance.
    • 91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
    • 91.93: Sep 2nd low.

    --

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  7. Forexpros2

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 26/10/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 26, 2009


    The National Australia Bank (NAB) will publish its Quarterly Business Confidence report tomorrow (OCT 27).

    The report measures the current business conditions in Australia by analyzing the economic situation in the short term.

    The indicator is concluded from a survey of around 1000 companies.

    A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.

    Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

    The Australian Market has seen an improving trend ever since the low reading of Business Confidence this February which stood at -42.

    ---

    Euro Dollar


    We can say that the Euro is still facing trouble in the 1.5045-1.5062 area, and with closing on towards 1.5082 very slowly, we should be on the watch for a top near this level, where a relatively sizable correction is expected to begin. The most important resistance for now is 1.5082, and only breaking it would weaken the probability of a top formation in this area. The most important support is the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly charts, which meets the moving average SMA100 at 1.4992. If broken, we expect a correction to match the rise from 1.4480, which would take the price in the next few days to 1.4840 at the very least. But, if things go against our expectations, and the price rise and breaks 1.5082, that would open the way towards 1.5144 & 1.5200.

    Support:
    • 1.4992: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and the moving average SMA100.
    • 1.4896: clear support area on the hourly chart.
    • 1.4840: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move from 1.4480.

    Resistance:
    • 1.5082: previous daily high from 2008.
    • 1.5144: previous support area that contained more than one daily low during last year.
    • 1.5200: previous resistance area from 2008.

    ---

    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen reached 92 for the first time in more than a month. And after breaking 91.63, its is only logical to say that the odds favor a continuation of this slow rise, probably to our previously suggested target area 92.52-58, which could be an area for the price to reverse from, and start correcting the whole rise from 87.98. Short-term resistance is 91.94, and breaking it would mean we are heading towards the target area 92.52-58, or may be to a more exciting and attractive target, which is 92.88: Fibonacci 50% resistance for the whole down move from 97.77 to 87.98. And since the 2 targets are not far from each other, the whole area combining them (92.52-92.88) is considered one wide resistance area that we expect is able to reverse the direction on the short-term, and initiate a correction that we can not talk about its size now. The most important support is 91.47, provided by the rising trendline on the 15 minute chart. If broken, we will target 90.90 where the known previous resistance meets the SMA100. And Since the RSI is standing in the middle of the way, the odds of going in either direction look close.

    Support:
    • 91.47: the rising trendline on the intraday charts.
    • 90.90: the previous known resistance, and the moving average SMA100.
    • 89.38: Oct 19th low.

    Resistance:
    • 91.94: intraday resistance.
    • 92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.
    • 92.88: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 97.77 to 87.98.

    ---

    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer

    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  8. Forexpros2

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 28/10/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 28, 2009


    The U.S. Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (Oct 29).

    The report is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
    The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
    Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
    A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
    Analysts predict last week’s measure of 531.00k to drop to 520.00k

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    In agreement with the negative technical outlook we talked about in yesterday's report, the Euro stopped at the first resistance in the report 1.4927 with great accuracy (yesterday's high 1.4926), then dropped breaking the support 1.4861, and reached the first target of that break 1.4771 with great accuracy as well (yesterday's low 1.4769). We still favor more downside movement, which is an expectation built on the negative technical outlook after breaking 1.4992, but we should not neglect the rising probability of an upward correction for the drop from 1.5061, which reached almost 300 pips so far. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from yesterday's low, currently at 1.4801, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the sharp drop, in order to break 1.4771, and target Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole up move from 1.4480, at 1.4702. Short-term resistance is 1.4844, and breaking it would target the area between 1.4881 & 1.4949. If the negative outlook is to persist, the later (1.4949) should hold.

    Support:
    • 1.4801: the rising trendline from yesterday's low on the intraday charts.
    • 1.4760: Oct 13th low.
    • 1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4844: Monday's low.
    • 1.4927: Fibonacci 38.2% for yesterday's drop.
    • 1.4978: Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterday's drop, and the most important resistance for the time being.

    ---


    USD/JPY

    The Dollar-Yen stayed below the resistance 92.27, broke the support 91.98, and reached the first target for this break 91.26 successfully. With this down move, we are getting closer to the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart, currently at 90.76, making it support of the day. Staying above it, would give this pair a chance to correct the drop from Monday's high 92.31, creating a correction that could reach 91.84, the most important resistance for the short-term. We believe that the borders of the current area are support 90.76 and resistance 97.84, and before breaking any of them, it would be difficult to predict the next move's direction. And we believe that the direction of that move will be the direction of the break. If we break support 90.76, that would mean we broke the rising trend channel, and the trend for the short and medium terms, and that would take the price close to 90 again. On the other hand, breaking resistance 91.84 would mean that the drop from Monday's high is over, and that we are on the way to 92.52-58.

    Support:
    • 90.76: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly.
    • 90.06: Oct 20th low.
    • 89.61: Oct 12th low.

    Resistance:
    • 91.54: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
    • 91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance for now.
    • 92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.

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    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

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    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.


     
  9. Forexpros2

    Forexpros2 Recruit

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    Forexpros Daily Analysis - 29/10/2009

    Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 29, 2009

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    Traders await tomorrow’s announcement (Oct 30) by the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the new monthly short term interest rate.

    The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the JPY.
    Analysts expect no new changes from the bank’s executives, with this months interests remaining stable at 0.10%.

    ---

    Euro Dollar

    In agreement with the negative technical outlook we talked about in the past two days, the Euro stopped at the first resistance in the report 1.4844 with great accuracy (highest price after the issuance of the report is 1.4840), then dropped breaking the support 1.4801, and reached the first target of that break 1.4702. And after reaching 1.4702, we should not neglect the rising probability of an upward correction for the drop from 1.5061, which reached almost 400 pips so far. Short-term support is Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from .4480, which is at 1.4702, and breaking it would mean that the drop coming from 1.5061 will be larger than our expectation, and the next targets will be 1.4649 and 1.4610. Short-term resistance is 1.4737, and breaking it would target the Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.4827, and may be Fibonacci 50% at 1.4872. If the negative outlook is to persist, the Euro should not break the most important resistance for the medium-term 1.4916.

    Support:
    • 1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
    • 1.4649: Oct 7th low.
    • 1.4610: previous support.

    Resistance:
    • 1.4737: short-term resistance.
    • 1.4827: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop 1.5061.
    • 1.4872: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.

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    USD/JPY

    Dollar-Yen broke 90.76 and had some drop after that, but it stopped before 90. In spite of that, the technical outlook became more negative, because we broke the rising channel that we have been monitoring lately. The most important support for the short-term is 90.16, and until this moment it managed to hold above it. If it can maintain to do so, we expect a correction for the down move from 92.31. But if it is broken, more of the drop is to be expected, first towards the important 89.61, the last important support above 89, since the next important support is 88.82. On the other hand, the most important resistance for the short-term is 91.02, which represents both Fibonacci 38.2%, and also the retest level for the broken channel. If broken, we expect to rise towards the important 91.52, and if we are in front of a correction, we should not break this level. But if a surprise happens and we break it, the price would be on the way back to 92.17.

    Support:
    • 90.16: short-term support.
    • 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
    • 88.82: previous support & Oct 14th low.

    Resistance:
    • 91.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term, and the retest level for the broken channel, important resistance.
    • 91.52: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term, important resistance.
    • 92.17: previous well known resistance area.

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    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji

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    Disclaimer:
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     
  10. Forexpros2

    Forexpros2 Recruit

    Joined:
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    Fundamental Weekly Outlook

    EU:
    • Monday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 55.3, Expected 55.3), Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51.1, Expected 51.1), Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 50.7, Expected 50.7).
    • Wednesday: France PMI Services (Previous 57.8, Expected 57.8), Germany PMI Services (Previous 50.9, Expected 50.9), Euro-zone PMI Services (Previous 52.3, Expected 52.3). Euro-Zone PPI MoM (Previous 0.4%, Expected -0.4%) & YoY (Previous -7.5%, Expected -7.7%).
    • Thursday: Euro-Zone Retail Sales MoM (Previous -0.2%, Expected 0.2%)
    & YoY (Previous -2.6%, Expected -2.4%). ECB Rate Decision (Previous 1.00%, Expected 1.00%) & then Trichet Speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference.
    • Friday: France Trade Balance (Previous -3.4 B, Expected -3.0 B). Germany Factory Orders MoM (Previous 1.4%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -20.4%, Expected -13.6%).

    US:
    • Monday: ISM Manufacturing (Previous 52.6, Expected 53.0).
    • Tuesday: Factory Orders (Previous -0.8%, Expected 1.0%).
    • Wednesday: FED/FOMC Rate Decision (Previous 0.25%, Expected 0.25%).
    (Previous 0.25%, Expected 0.25%).
    • Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 530K, Expected 520K).
    • Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 9.8%, Expected 9.9%), Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Previous -263K, Expected -175K). Wholesale Inventories (Previous -1.3%, Expected -1.0%).

    JP:
    • Monday: Labor Cash Earnings YoY (Previous -3.1%, Expected -2.1%)
    • Thursday: BOJ Board Meeting Minutes (text report).
    • Friday: Leading Index CI (Previous 83.2, Expected 86.2), Coincident Index CI (Previous 91.2, Expected 92.5).

    UK:
    • Monday: PMI Manufacturing (Previous 49.5, Expected 50.0).
    • Wednesday: Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Previous 71.0, Expected 73.0), PMI Services (Previous 55.3, Expected 55.5).
    •Thursday: Industrial Production MoM (Previous -2.5%, Expected 1.2%) & YoY (Previous -11.2%, Expected -10.3%). BoE Rate Decision (Previous 0.50%, Expected 0.50%).
    • Friday: PPI Input MoM (Previous -0.5%, Expected 1.5%) & YoY (Previous -6.5%, Expected -1.3%). PPI Output MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 0.3%) & YoY (Previous 0.4%, Expected 1.9%), PPI Core MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 1.4%, Expected 2.0%).

    AU:
    • Monday: House Price Index QoQ (Previous 4.2%, Expected 3.0%) &YoY House Price Index (Previous -1.4%, Expected 4.3%).
    • Tuesday: RBA Decision about the interest rate on the Australian Dollar (Previous 3.25%%, Expected 3.50%).
    • Wednesday: Retail Sales (Previous 0.9%, Expected 0.5%).
    • Thursday: Trade Balance (Previous -1524 M, Expected -2150 M).

    CA:
    • Thursday: Building Permits MoM (Previous 7.2%, Expected N/A). Ivey PMI (Previous 61.7%, Expected 58.0).
    • Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 8.4%, Expected 8.4%). Net Change in Employment (Previous 30.6K, Expected 10.0K).

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    Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

    ---

    Disclaimer
    Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
     

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