Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 13/10/2009

[Forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 02/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 2, 2009

---

UK traders await the release of the Nationwide Consumer Confidence report tomorrow (Oct 3rd).

The report is calculated from a survey of about 1,000 consumers, and measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP since it points to consumer optimism, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

Analysts forecast an increase on last’s month’s figure of 71.00 to 72.00.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the short-term resistance 1.4737, and reached the first target suggested for this break at 1.4827 successfully. The most important question for now is this: Is the current rise a corrective or impulsive move? We believe that the limit separating those two possibilities is 1.4916, which is Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.5061. And as long as the Euro stays below this resistance it is considered a corrective rise, while breaking it would announce more upside movement to come, probably to reach new highs above the last top 1.5061. The first resistance in front of us is 1.4872, and if it is broken we will head towards the important test of 1.4916, and if this one is broken we will target 1.4980 first, on the way to higher targets. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Wednesday's low, currently at 1.4786, and if broken we will test 1.4702 again, and if this one is broken we will head towards 1.4649.

Support:
• 1.4786: the rising trendline from Wednesday's low on the intraday & hourly charts.
• 1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
• 1.4649: Oct 7th low.

Resistance:
• 1.4872: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
• 1.4916: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
• 1.4980: Oct 26th low.

---

USD/JPY

As we have expected in Friday's report, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.75 and reached both suggested targets 90.16 & 89.61 successfully. This drop that started on Thursday and continued into the new week, was the result of stopping near Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 9.52, and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. But on the other hand, the abovementioned drop cashed in 250 pips approximately, which could create a correction from here. That is why we prefer to wait for a break of short-term support 89.61 or short-term resistance 90.23 before talking about the direction of the next move from here. If we break the support 89.61 the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.07 and the important 88.64. And if we break Thursday's low 90.23, we will be heading to a test of short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.68, and only if it is broken, we will expect a retest of the broken channel at 91.28, which would be an important test if it happens.

Support:
• 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
• 89.07: previous intraday support.
• 88.64: Oct 9th low.

Resistance:
• 90.23: Oct 29th low.
• 90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, important resistance.
• 91.28: the retest level of the broken channel.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[Forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 03/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 3, 2009

---

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on short term interest rate is due out tomorrow (Nov 4).

The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast no change, with the interest rate remaining at 0.25%.

---

Euro Dollar

In spite of the importance of the 1.4682 support that has stopped price twice exactly at the same price, we will not wait until it is broken to turn our outlook for the Euro to negative. We will set out most important support at Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term 1.4744, because it is the last important support defending 1.4682, and if 1.4744 is broken, the odds of breaking 1.4682 on a third attempt will be big. The most important support for the short-term is 1.4809, provided by the falling trendline from 1.4926, and breaking it would give the Euro some strength that could be enough to test Fibonacci 50% at 1.4872. We will await a break of either of those levels before deciding on today's direction. If we break support at 1.4744, that will mean a continuation of falling on the short-term and targeting the important bottom 1.4649 and may be 1.4610 after that. But if we break the resistance 1.4809, today's direction would be up, and the suggested targets would be 1.4872 first, and may be 1.4916.

Support:
• 1.4744: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4649: Oct 7th low.
• 1.4610: Sep 21st low.

Resistance:
• 1.4980: the falling trendline from 1.4926.
• 1.4872: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
• 1.4916: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.

---

USD/JPY

Down to the pip, the Dollar-Yen stopped at Fibonacci resistance specified in yesterday's report 90.68 (yesterday's high is EXACTLY 90.68), and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. That’s why we find ourselves favoring a continuation of the short-term downtrend as long as we are below 90.68. And we will await a break of short-term Fibonacci support 90.16, after the price literally "sat" on it for the past few hours. If we break this support the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.61 first, then 89.07 and may be the important 88.64. The price behavior for yesterday, and the amazingly accurate reversal at the Fibonacci resistance that we talked about (90.68),makes it the most important resistance, and only if it is broken, we will change our negative outlook for this pair. If this surprise happens, we will be heading to a test the upper limit of the short-term downtrend (the trendline drawn on the chart), which is currently at 90.95, and that would be an important test if it happens.

Support:
• 90.16: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
• 89.07: previous intraday support.

Resistance:
• 90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, important resistance.
• 90.95: the upper limit of the short-term downtrend and the trendline descending from last week tops.
• 91.60: Oct 29th high.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[Forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 04/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 4, 2009


---

Initial Jobless Claims to Be Published in the US Tomorrow

The Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.

The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.

Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

Analysts forecast 520.00K, down from 530.00K.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro broke short-term support 1.4744 and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.4649. But the point where yesterday's drop stopped, uncovered a very harmonized channel, and price has touched its lines a whole 7 times. Yesterday's low was exactly at the bottom of that channel, as the attached chart shows (hourly chart). We will monitor this channel to try and specify the direction, and we strongly believe that if this channel is broken to the downside, the medium-term price direction will be in a downtrend. The bottom of the channel is currently at 1.4649 which makes this level the most important support for the short-term. On the other hand, resistance congregate its power in one important area, where we find the falling trendline from 1.5061, the moving average SMA100, and Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4762 (calculated for the 5 waves dropping from 1.4843 to the orthodox bottom 1.4631 and not the price bottom 1.4625), which clearly makes this area the most important of all resistance levels. A break of the 1.4649 support will put the Euro under pressure and that would push it lower to 1.4559, then the important bottom 1.4480, and later to 1.4404. While a break of the resistance 1.4762 ill give the Euro a chance to catch a break and to correct upwards towards 1.4846 and may be 1.4897.

Support:
• 1.4649: the bottom of the coordinated channel on the hourly chart, and the most important support for medium-term.
• 1.4559: Fibonacci 38.2% for medium-term.
• 1.4480: Oct 2nd low.

Resistance:
• 1.4762: important resistance area combining Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the moving average SMA100, and the falling trendline from 1.5061..
• 1.4846: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
• 1.4897: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.

---

USD/JPY

After stopping on Monday, at Fibonacci resistance 90.68 down to the pip, Dollar-Yen stopped yesterday at the moving average SMA100, with the same kind of accuracy. And as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels (and moving averages as well) is an evidence that the trend in down. That’s why we find ourselves favoring a continuation of the short-term downtrend as long as we are below 90.68. And we will await a break of short-term Fibonacci support 90.21. If we break this support the downtrend will resume, and will target 89.61 first, then 89.07 and may be the important 88.64. The price behavior for the past two days, and the amazingly accurate reversal at the Fibonacci resistance (90.68), makes it the most important resistance, and to add to that, the upper limit of the short-term downtrend (the trendline drawn on the chart), is currently at the same level. And only if it is broken, we will change our negative outlook for this pair. If this surprise happens, we will expect price to reach 91.28 then the important resistance 91.63.

Support:
• 90.21: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
• 89.07: previous intraday support.

Resistance:
• 90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the falling line of the downtrend, important resistance.
• 91.28: previous intraday important top.
• 91.63: a well known support area that contained a number of daily tops and bottoms, the last of which was Oct 29th high.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[Forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 05/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 5, 2009

---

Unemployment Rate in the US to Be Announced Tomorrow

The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US.

A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD.

Analysts forecast a 9.90% unemployment rate, up from 9.80%.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro broke short-term resistance and reached both suggested targets 1.4846 and 1.4897 successfully. Yesterday's climb stopped 10 pips above Fibonacci level, then went back to settle below it. That is why this resistance will keep its importance. Breaking it would send the Euro above 1.50, or at least close to the dollar and a half mark. The Euro continued its shine since reaching the bottom of the hourly channel that we talked about yesterday, and is currently rising inside an upward rising channel on the intraday charts, with its top at 1.4972, a level we consider as a first target to a break of 1.4897, and after that we could see 1.5014. The bottom of the same channel is currently at 1.4839, and as long as price holds above it (at the moment its only pips above this level) the potential for more short-term upside works stays alive. On the other hand a break of the bottom of the channel indicates that the direction for the short-term has turned down, which will target 1.4769 first, and may be 1.4701 later. We remind you of the rate decision of the ECB that will be announced today, and the news conference for president Trichet that will follow, which usually moves the Euro violently.

Support:
• 1.4839: the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
• 1.4769: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.
• 1.4701: previous important support/resistance area.

Resistance:
• 1.4897: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
• 1.4972: the top of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
• 1.5014: previous resistance.

---

USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke Fibonacci resistance 90.68 and reached 91.28 as we accepted, with accuracy (yesterday's high 91.30), before retreating fast. This behavior redefined the rising channel on the hourly chart to make its bottom at 90.18. And when calculating Fibonacci 61.8% resistance for the short-term (for the drop from yesterday's high), we find that it is at the resistance level of 90.90. In case of a break of either of those levels, we believe price will move in the direction of the break. If the bottom of the channel at 90.18 is broken, the price will move down and target 89.61 first, and may be 89.07 as well. While if we break Fibonacci resistance at 90.90 we expect a rise to surpass yesterday's high, targeting the important 91.63 first, and only if it is broken we can expect 92 to appear on the price screens when the price targets the obvious resistance on the hurly chart 92.17.

Support:
• 90.18: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
• 89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
• 89.07: previous intraday support.

Resistance:
• 90.90: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 91.63: a well known support area that contained a number of daily tops and bottoms, the last of which was Oct 29th high.
• 92.17: obvious resistance on the hourly chart.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[Forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 09/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 9, 2009

Free Webinar Tomorrow on Forexpors.com: Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process
Tue, Nov 10, 2009, 11:00 EST/16:00GMT

Dan Cook, Senior Market Analyst at IG Markets will shed light on the inner workings of the international banking system and its impact on currency trading.

The webinar will provide a breakdown of the Central Banks and the Interbank System, highlighting the roles of each of the major players and how their policy decisions impact currency markets. Additionally, Cook will review major market indicators and identify which data releases most critically impact currency markets, enabling traders to get a better sense of which economic announcements warrant the most attention.

Click Here To Join

--------------------

In The News:

Traders await tomorrows release of the Economic Sentiment report by The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW).
The report determines the sentiment of German institutional investors over the past month.

The ZEW report, which is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts, is considered a leading indicator of business conditions.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

Analysts expect tomorrow's report to indicate a slight drop to 55.00 from lasts month's measure of 56.00

--------------------

Euro/Dollar

Finally, the Euro broke short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance level at 1.4897 and reached the previous known resistance 1.4942 which is October 22nd low. Breaking it would send the Euro above 1.50, since we see the first important resistance above it is at 1.5014. Then there is nothing separating the Euro from this year's high 1.5061, and may be reach the important resistance 1.5082. The most important support for the next few hours will be the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is 1.4880. In case it is broken, the Euro will face a correction on the short-term horizon that will target Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 1.4821, at least, and could reach 61.8% at 1.4746. In this case, the latter will be the most important support for the short-term because staying above means this drop is only a correction, while breaking it means it is more than a correction.

Support:
• 1.4880: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
• 1.4821: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
• 1.4746: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last rising move.

Resistance:
• 1.4942: Oct 22nd low.
• 1.5014: previous resistance.
• 1.5082: previous resistance.

----------------

GBP/USD

The Pound broke the resistance 1.6636, and reached the first target 1.6690 successfully, and came close to the second 1.6739 this morning (the high until the moment is 1.6739). This resistance, that represents September 11th high, will be the most important for today. If price fail to break it, it will be heading towards a test of the short-term support at 1.6661, and if this support is broken, we believe the price will be in a correction for the whole rise from 1.6259. Such a correction will target Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.6552 (at least), and could reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.6496. on the other hand, if the price manage to break 1.6739, this rise will continue, and reach areas above 1.68, where there is the important resistance 1.6830 that we believe to be the minimum target for breaking 1.6739. And may be later, we will see a test of the important resistance from August 1.6910. All eyes on 1.6739.

Support:
• 1.6661: short-term resistance.
• 1.6552: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
• 1.6496: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.

Resistance:
• 1.6739: Sep 11th high.
• 1.6830: Aug 7th high.
• 1.6910: a previous resistance from August.

----------------

USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.41 and reached our first target suggested for this break at 89.61 with an amazing accuracy (Friday's low was 89.60). And with the two-time stop at the descending trendline on Friday, and at Fibonacci 50% resistance during the Asian session, the borders of the downtrend is getting clearer and clearer. The falling trendline is now at 90.55, and short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance is at 90.37, making this area the most important for the short-term. Staying below it means that bears are in control. More confidence for the downtrend will be gained once we break 90.05, which will target 89.40 then the important bottom 88.82. If a surprise happens, and we break 90.37, we will target 90.90 first, then 91.30.

Support:
• 90.05: short-term support.
• 89.40: previous support.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.

Resistance:
• 90.37: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.30: Nov 4th high.

Forex Trading Analysis by Forexpros.com

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[Forexpros2]

Forexpros.com Fundamental Weekly Outlook Nov 9

EU:

• Monday: Germany Trade Balance (Previous 8.1B, Expected 11.3B), Germany Current Account (Previous 4.6B, Expected 9.3B), Imports (Previous 1.1%, Expected 0.9%)., Exports (Previous -1.8%, Expected 2.5%). France Bank of France Business Sentiment (Previous 92, Expected 93). Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence (Previous -12.6, Expected -12.0). Germany Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.7%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -16.8%, Expected -14.4%).
• Tuesday: Germany Consumer Price Index CPI MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected 0.1%) & YoY (Previous 0.0%, Expected 0.0%). France Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.8%, Expected 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -10.8%, Expected -9.2%). Germany ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Previous 56, Expected 55), Germany Zew Survey Current Situation (Previous -72.2, Expected -70.0). Euro-Zone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Previous 56.9, Expected 58.0).
• Thursday: Euro-Zone Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.9%, Expected 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -15.4%, Expected -14.1%).
• Friday: Germany GDP QoQ (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.8%) & YoY (Previous -5.9%, Expected -4.8%). France GDP QoQ (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.6%) & YoY (Previous -2.8%, Expected -1.9%). Euro-Zone GDP QoQ (Previous 0.2%, Expected 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -4.8%, Expected -3.9%).

US:

• Tuesday: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Previous 48.7, Expected N/A). ABC Consumer Confidence (Previous 49.0, Expected N/A).
• Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 512K, Expected 510K). Monthly Budget Statement (Previous -155.5B, Expected -150.0B).

• Friday: Trade Balance (Previous -30.7B, Expected -31.6B), Import Price Index MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -12.0%, Expected -5.6%). University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Previous 70.6, Expected 71.0)

JP:

• Tuesday: Trade Balance (Previous 303.7B, Expected 630.0B), Current Account (Previous 1171.2B, Expected 1510.0B). Bank Lending (Previous 1.6%, Expected 1.5%), Banks Lending Banks (Previous 1.7%, Expected N/A). Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Previous 43.1, Expected N/A), Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Previous 44.5, Expected N/A). Machine Tool Orders YoY (Previous -62.1%, Expected N/A).
• Wednesday: Machine Orders MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 4.1%) &YoY (Previous -26.5%, Expected -26.3%).
• Thursday: Domestic CGPI MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected -0.1%) & YoY (Previous -7.9%, Expected -6.0%).
• Friday: Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.4%, Expected N/A) & YoY (Previous -18.9%, Expected N/A). Consumer Confidence (Previous 40.7, Expected 40.5).

UK:

• Tuesday: Trade Balance (Previous 2.318B, Expected 2.000B). DCLG UK House Prices YoY (Previous -5.6%, Expected -4.9%).
• Wednesday: Jobless Claims Change (Previous 20.8K, Expected 20.0K). Average Earnings (Previous 1.9%, Expected 1.8%), Average Earnings Including Bonuses (Previous 1.6%, Expected 1.4%). ILO Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.9%, Expected 8.0%). Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (Text Report).

AU:

• Monday: Home Loans (Previous -0.6%, Expected 3.0%), Investment Lending (Previous 7.6%, Expected N/A).
• Wednesday: Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Previous 121.4, Expected N/A).
• Thursday: Employment Change (Previous 40.6K, Expected -10.0K), Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.7%, Expected 5.8%).

CA:

• Thursday: New Housing Price Index MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected 0.2%).
• Friday: International Merchandise Trade (Previous -2.0B, Expected N/A). New Motor Vehicle Sales (Previous -0.3%, Expected 0.0%).

For more Fundamental News, visit the Forexpros Economic Calendar

 

[Forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 10/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 10, 2009


Free webinar today - Mapping out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part I

Expert: Dan Cook
When: Tue, Nov 10, 2009, 11:00 EST

As the first Webinar of a two part series, Dan Cook, Senior Market Analyst at IG Markets will shed light on the inner workings of the international banking system and its impact on currency trading.
The webinar will provide a breakdown of the Central Banks and the Interbank System, highlighting the roles of each of the major players and how their policy decisions impact currency markets. Additionally, Cook will review major market indicators and identify which data releases most critically impact currency markets, enabling traders to get a better sense of which economic announcements warrant the most attention.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

Traders await the release of the Bank of England's (BOE) Quarterly Inflation Report tomorrow (NOV 10th).

The report sets out a detailed economic analysis and inflation projection on which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions. The Monetary Policy Committee is also expected to present an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the next two years.

---

Euro Dollar - Rising Trendline

The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.4942 and reached the first target suggest for his break 1.5014 with good accuracy (yesterday's high was 1.5018). Yesterday's target will be today's resistance, and if broken we expect this rise to go on, reaching new highs that we have not seen this year, first of which is 1.5082, then 1.5144. The most important support for the next few hours will be the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is at 1.4925 currently. In case it is broken, the Euro will face a correction on the short-term horizon that will target Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 1.4821, at least, and could reach 61.8% at 1.4746. In this case, the latter will be the most important support for the short-term because staying above means this drop is only a correction, while breaking it means it is more than a correction.

Support:
• 1.4925: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
• 1.4821: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
• 1.4746: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last rising move.

Resistance:
• 1.5014: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
• 1.5144: previous support from 2008.

---

USD/JPY - Falling Trendline

As we said yesterday, the two-time stop at the descending trendline on Friday, and at Fibonacci 50% resistance at the beginning of the week, the borders of the downtrend is getting clearer and clearer. The falling trendline is now at short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance is at 90.37, meeting them in the same area is the moving average SMA100, making this area the most important for the short-term. Staying below it means that bears are in control. More confidence for the downtrend will be gained once we break 89.79, the support provided by the rising trendline from this weeks low. Such a break will target 89.40 then the important bottom 88.82. If a surprise happens, and we break 90.37, we will target 90.90 first, then 91.30.

Support:
• 89.79: the rising trendline from this weeks low.
• 89.40: previous support.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.

Resistance:
• 90.37: a resistance area that includes Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, a falling trendline, and the moving average SMA100.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.30: Nov 4th high.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[Forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 11/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 11, 2009


Free webinar - An insider's guide to Forex

Expert: Richard Regan
When: Tue, Nov 17, 2009, 17:00 EST

Watch an in depth presentation on the inner workings of the global FOREX market. Richard explains what traps to avoid and how to position yourself to take advantage of the moves in currencies.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

The US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (NOV 12).

The report serves as a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week, and gives an indication to the health of the job market, as increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.

While this measure tends to be volatile, analysts predict no change since last week’s measure of 512.00k.

---

Euro Dollar

In the past 24 hours, the Euro have not broken the support 1.4925 nor the resistance 1.5014, that the price stopped at again with accuracy (yesterday's high is exactly Monday's high at 1.5018). And now, it looks like there is an attempt to break the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is currently at 1.4975. If the Dollar manages to drag the Euro to below this line, the rising trend from last weeks high 1.4625 will be over. And that suggests there will be a correction matching the size of this trend that will force the Euro to areas below 1.49 where we find three attractive targets: Fibonacci 38.2 for the above mentioned uptrend at 1.4868, and Fibonacci 50% at 1.4821, and before them the resistance that stopped the Euro several times last week at 1.4897. the most important resistance is defiantly 1.5014, and only breaking it will improve the short-term technical outlook for the Euro, since such a break will lead the price up to areas not seen this year, first of which 1.5082 then 1.5144.

Support:
• 1.4975: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
• 1.4897: the resistance that stopped the price several times last week.
• 1.4821: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.

Resistance:
• 1.5014: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
• 1.5144: previous support from 2008.

---

USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the support 89.79 and reached the first target suggested for that break 89.40 successfully. The break of 89.79, the support that was provided to us by the rising trendline from last week's low, clearly means that the short-term trend is a down trend. However, the correction of yesterday's drop has already started, and is getting closer and closer to the broken trendline at 89.82 as this report is prepared. But the most important resistance is 90.23, where the falling trendline from October 27th top awaits. The bears will be in control as long as price is below this line that provides today's most important resistance. And if this happens, we expect the price to fall and test Fibonacci 61.8% support for the micro-term at 89.53, and may be a break as well, that will lead to the important bottom 88.82. If the opposite of what we expect happens, and we break the resistance 90.23, the price will be on its way to 90.90 first, and may be 91.31 later.

Support:
• 89.53: Fibhonaci 61.8% for the micro-term.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
• 88.33: previous support.

Resistance:
• 90.23: the falling trendline from Oct 27th high.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.31: Nov 4th high.

---

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[Forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 12/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 12, 2009


Free webinar - An insider's guide to Forex

Expert: Richard Regan
When: Tue, Nov 17, 2009, 17:00 EST

Watch an in depth presentation on the inner workings of the global FOREX market. Richard explains what traps to avoid and how to position yourself to take advantage of the moves in currencies.

Click here to join the webinar.

---

The U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the monthly Trade Balance index tomorrow (Nov 13).

The Index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports), which make up the largest component of a country's balance of payments.

Export data gives reflection on the US growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand.

The index serves as a powerful indicator for the streangth of the USD, because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports.

Analysts forecast tomorrow's index to stand at -32.00B, a drop from lasts month's reading of -30.70B.


More fundamental analysis at Forexpros.

---

]Euro Dollar

The Euro fluctuated in a tight range, breaking both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report, without reaching the target in either cases, and without any large moves to follow the breaks. Short-term support is still at 1.4975 where there is the moving average SMA100, and the previous support. If broken, the Euro will probably fall today in a correction for the last move up from 1.4625, targeting 1.4886 & 1.4836 and may be the most important support for medium-term currently at 1.4786. In this case, the later will become a crucial support, for setting the direction for the next few days, because breaking it would indicate that the drop from 1.5047 is not just a correction. Such a break would harm the technical outlook not just for the short-term but for the medium-term as well. The most important resistance is 1.5018, and breaking it would give the Euro a push to areas above yesterdays high, and we could finally see 1.51.

Support:
• 1.4975: the moving average SMA100 and a previous support.
• 1.4886: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
• 1.4836: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.

Resistance:
• 1.5018: Monday's & Tuesday's high.
• 1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
• 1.5144: previous support from 2008.

---

USD/JPY

For the past 24 hours, the Dollar-yen did not break any of the levels specified in yesterday's report, it did not penetrate 90.23, it did not drop below 89.53. The most important thing to happen from a technical point of view was the fact that the falling trendline and the rising broken trendline came closer to each other. The most important resistance is provided by the falling trendline from October 27th top, which is currently at 90.00. The bears will be in control as long as price is below this line that provides today's most important resistance. And if this happens, we expect the price to fall and test Fibonacci 61.8% support for the short-term at 89.56, and may be a break as well, that will lead to the important bottom 88.82. If the opposite of what we expect happens, and we break the resistance 90.00, the price will be on its way to 90.90 first, and may be 91.31 later.

Support:
• 89.56: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
• 88.33: previous support.

Resistance:
• 90.00: the falling trendline from Oct 27th high.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.31: Nov 4th high.

---

Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji


---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[Forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 16/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 16, 2009


Fundamental Analysis, Canada

• Monday: Manufacturing Sales MoM (Previous -2.1%, Expected 1.6%)
• Wednesday: CPI MoM (Previous 0.0%, Expected 0.1%) & YoY (Previous -0.9%, Expected 0.3%). Core CPI MoM (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.0%) & YoY (Previous 1.5%, Expected 1.7%).
• Thursday: Leading Indicators MoM (Previous 1.1%, Expected 1.7%).

Get further analysis on CAD/USD and other currency pairs at Forexpros.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro moved in both directions, before choosing the upside, creating a rising move that continued from Friday until after the open last night, that elevated the EURUSD to 1.4971 until now. The most important support for medium-term is 1.4786, which is a crucial support, for setting the direction for the next few days, because breaking it would indicate that the drop from 1.5047 is not just a correction. Such a break would harm the technical outlook not just for the short-term but for the medium-term as well. However, for the short-term, the most important support is 1.4934, and breaking it would indicate that the fall will carry on and target the important 1.4786, and if broken we will see a test of the bottom that we saw twice 1.4682. The resistance is at 1.4972, and breaking it would send the price to test the top that we saw twice last week 1.5018, which is the key to 1.5082 that could be seen for the first time this year.

Support:
• 1.4934: short-term support.
• 1.4856: Oct 28th & 29th high.
• 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625.

Resistance:
• 1.4972: short-term resistance.
• 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

---

USD/JPY

After halting with a reasonable accuracy near the resistance of Friday's report 90.52, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.02 and reached the first suggested target 89.60. Friday's price behavior introduced the support 89.46, that we will adopt as support of the day. IF this support is taken, we will finally see the long awaited visit of 88.82, the important support for the medium-term. And if broken the next target will be October 13th low 88.13. As for the resistance, it comes from short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.12. A break here would indicate that the odds of surpassing Friday's high are very good, and that will target 90.90 first, and may be 91.31. Even though the falling trendline from 92.31 was broken on Thursday, still the technical picture of the medium-term is hazy, and we await more signals to help us determine the direction of the medium-term.

Support:
• 89.46: obvious support on the hourly chart.
• 88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.

Resistance:
• 90.12: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
• 91.31: Nov 4th high.

---

Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji
Get more Forex education at Forexpros.

---

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.