Euro Dollar
The Euro moved in both directions, breaking both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report, without being able to reach the target in both cases. We have witnessed a swift move during yesterday's trading, when the Euro dropped very fast to 1.4879 only to rise with the same light speed to 1.5014. This move has founded an important support at 1.4879, where the rising trendline from November 3rd bottom meets yesterday's low. If this support is broken, we will be heading to a test of Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4782, which is also an important level. As for the resistance, after the price behavior we witnessed in the past few days, the area 1.4982-1.5018 became a gathering for several short-term resistance levels that are very close to each other. We will choose the lower limit of that area as our resistance of the day, if 1.4982 is broken, we will see price levels that have not been seen this year, as we will target 1.5082 first, then 1.5145.
Support:
• 1.4934: short-term support.
• 1.4879: the rising trendline from Nov 3rd bottom, and yesterday's low.
• 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625.
Resistance:
• 1.4982: the lower limit of the resistance area 1.4982-1.5018.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5145: previous resistance from 2008.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in yesterday's report 89.46, and reached the first suggested target 88.82 successfully, in a long awaited visit to areas below 89. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, after establishing a support at 88.90. If this level holds, we will see a correction of yesterday's drop, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.88. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.
Support:
• 88.90: obvious support on the hourly chart.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.
Resistance:
• 89.27: Nov 11th low.
• 89.88: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 90.73: intraday top.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
The UK National Statistics Bureau will publish the monthly Retail Sales measurement Tomorrow (Nov 19).
Retail Sales are a measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the UK.
It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the UK economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Analysts expect tomorrow’s measurement to stand at 0.60%, a slight increase from last month.
For analysis onGBP/USDand other currencies see Forexpros.
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Euro Dollar
As expected, the Euro dropped after breaking 1.4934, reaching the first suggested target 1.4879 successfully, and getting close somehow to the second target and important level 1.4786. This behavior only gave us more confidence in the importance of 1.4786, where there is Fibonacci 61.8% for the up-move from 1.4625 to 1.5047, especially with the rising trendline from August 17th low, approaching this level. Short-term support is nearby at 1.4876, a break here would target Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from yesterday's low which is at 1.4839. This is the last notable support before the all important 1.4786. The technical outlook for the short-term will not turn positive before breaking Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Monday's top at 1.4935. If this happens, the Euro will bounce to 1.4998 first, and if we can break this level, we have the right to wait for 1.5082 for the first time this year.
Support:
• 1.4876: short-term support.
• 1.4839: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.
Resistance:
• 1.4935: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%.
• 1.4998: intraday top from Monday.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report without being able to create any large moves in both cases. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, where Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is at 89.01. If this level holds, we will see an upward correction, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.87. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in case we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.
Support:
• 88.90: obvious support on the hourly chart.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.
Resistance:
• 89.27: Nov 11th low.
• 89.87: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 90.73: intraday top.
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
The Bank of Japan is due to hold a press conference Tomorrow (NOV 20).
The Bank regularly uses press releases in order to communicate with investors. Topics at such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and changes in interest rates.
For more on USD/JPY,USD/NZDand other currency majors see Forexpros.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance 1.4935, and came very close to our first suggested target at 1.4998, when it reached a top at 1.4990, before retreating back to 1.49 this morning. Short-term resistance is provided by the falling trendline from yesterday's high on the intraday charts, which is currently at 1.4931. If this resistance is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.4998 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year. As for the support, stopping near Fibonacci 50% for the rising move from 1.4806 to yesterday's top 1.4990 makes it an important support at 1.4898, but the most important support is at 1.4786, and if broken we will be heading towards November 13th bottom 1.4820 first, then the most important support at this stage 1.4786, where there is Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4625 to 1.5047. Especially with the rising line from August 17th low getting close to this.
Support:
• 1.4876: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4806 to 1.4990.
• 1.4820: November 13th low.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.
Resistance:
• 1.4931: the falling trendline from yesterday's top on the intraday charts.
• 1.4998: intraday top from Monday.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen is still holding on above 89 , but on the other hand it was not able to surpass the previous top at 89.52. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, where Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is at 89.01. If this level holds, we will see an upward correction, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.87. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in case we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.
Support:
• 89.01: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.
Resistance:
• 89.27: Nov 11th low.
• 89.87: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 90.73: intraday top.
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Euro Dollar:
The pair has pulled off the low of the range (1.4800), and looks prepared to move back higher to test some former highs. This will either be confirmed or rejected based on movement through the following levels:
A move back above 1.4890 indicates movement back above 1.4900 and a test of recent swing highs at 1.4930-1.4940. We have trendline support above this at 1.4950-1.4965, this will also act as resistance. Beyond is resistance at 1.4980-1.4990.
Keep in mind that old support and resistance become new resistance and support respectively if a level is moved through and then retreats back. Movement through one level indicates movement to the next, and failures are likely to move back to other levels mentioned. Support and resistance does not mean rates will move exactly to the price mentioned, rather they are profit taking opportunities in those areas (or possibly entry prices if moved through) as retracements are more likely around those levels. This is misunderstood by many traders, and I will elaborate on it on an upcoming post on my blog.
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A drop back below 1.4840 is our first indication of a move lower. The trend line this move would break is short term and not of high importance. The closest major level is 1.4800. A break below that would be significant.
A break below 1.4800, if it is legit, will find support at 1.4770, 1.4740-1.4730 then 1.4700. If the break is not legit and just a stop run, it will likely tucker out by 1.4780-1.4770 and then reverse. I say that only we because we all know there are a pile of stops sitting down there.
Keep in mind that since we know stop hunting is a common practice, whether intentional or not, and is a strategy in and of itself. If there is a level that is likely to have many stops it, it seems to create a gravitational pull and can result in a quick surge but often retraces. Watch and see if you see this happening around critical levels. If there is interest I can post a article on how to trade this phenomenon. Have a great day trading everyone!
ForexAnalysis written by Cory Mitchell, in conjunction with Forexpros
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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