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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 15/09/2010

Discussion in 'Market Predictions and Reports' started by Forexpros2, Sep 15, 2010.

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    Oct 12, 2009
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    ForexPros Daily Analysis September 15, 2010

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    When: Thu, Sep 16, 2010, 07:00 ET

    Unfortunately many traders fall into the trap of following technical analysis systems without understanding what charts are really telling them about the behavior and sentiment of the market. Kris Matthews presents in the final webinar of this four part series on trading sentiment, how to spot certain recurring types of price action that reveal valuable clues about the sentiment/direction of the market going forward.

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    Euro Dollar

    The Euro jumped strongly yesterday, even though it initially broke the support specified in yesterday’s report. We broke the important level specified in yesterday’s report 1.2920, and successfully reached the first suggested target of 1.3000. We have seen the EURUSD jumping more than 100 pips above the massive 1.2920, this shows that even when they are broken, important levels provide good trading opportunities just as when they hold and reverse the trend. During the Asian session the Euro dropped to create a correction of 38.2% of yesterday’s jump. It stopped with astonishing accuracy at the short term Fibonacci 38.2% level, bottoming at 1.2954, just 1 pip above the Fibo level. This will be our support for today, and if broken, we expect the drop which has gained 80 pips so far to go on. Targets will be 1.2886 & 1.2764. On the other hand, yesterday’s rise almost made it to the all important medium term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3047. this is the most important resistance level for now, if broken we will be on the way to levels above 1.31, the most important of which are 1.3118 & 1.3194.

    • 1.2954: Asian session low & short term Fibonacci 38.2% level.
    • 1.2886: the rising trend line from Friday’s low on the hourly chart.
    • 1.2764: Sep 9th high.

    • 1.3047: Fibonacci 61.8% for the medium term. The most important resistance level at the moment.
    • 1.3118: Aug 5th low.
    • 1.3194: Aug 2nd high.



    All the major Yen pairs jumped together during the Asian session, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82 appears on the screens for the first time since 1995. A lot of people would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then things go back into the hands of the market powers. This intervention has caused the price to break the falling trend line from June 4th top on the hourly chart, which resulted in reaching 85. Now, this surge has a huge barrier in front of it, which is 85.89! This is where the falling trend line from May 5th top is running currently. If broken, the price will fly, targeting 86.81 & 87.56. On the other hand, the support is at 84.25, and if broken we will drop to the important 83.73, then 82.87.

    • 84.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
    • 83.73: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
    • 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.

    • 85.89: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart
    • 86.95: Jul 1st low.
    • 87.56: Jul 20th high.



    The Pound jumped yesterday and broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.5490, and reached the first suggested target for this break at 1.5575 successfully. After it topped 10 pips above our target then dropped hard for more than 100 pips. This is a sign of exhaustion, and that breaking 1.5490, which we believe is very important, only had a short term effect on the price behavior. This morning we approached a critical short term support level which is Fibonacci 61.8% for the latest rise from 1.5347 on Monday to 1.5585 yesterday. This level which is at 1.5438 is the most important support for now. The drop stopped just 10 pips above it a few hours ago, and if is broken, then the Pound has already topped medium term yesterday at 1.5585, and it will continue its drop targeting the very attractive 1.5326, and at a later time 1.5249. On the other hand, the Pound should break the resistance 1.5533 to keep the chances of another jump alive. If it succeeds, we expect it to target medium term important levels: 1.5646 & 1.5728.

    • 1.5438: short term Fibonacci 61.8% level.
    • 1.5326: Aug 31st low.
    • 1.5249: Jul 23rd low.

    • 1.5533: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level.
    • 1.5646: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.
    • 1.5728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from Aug 6th top.


    Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.



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