Forex FX Daily Video, July 20, 2022

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

Today we take a look at few long-term trading setups on GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD currencies instead of gold market:

 

[Brett Reynolds]

I'm not too much in agreement on the economic situation in Europe or especially UK Sive? The UK has now left the EU and we can totally control our own monetary policy and we don't give £39Billion to EU every year anymore. We have Zero unemployment at the moment but with some inflation which we have had before in the 1970's! So what!? All Inflation is created by Central Banks printing money' and giving it's populations excuses for that! The Covid' was one and the proxy war in Ukraine is just another! BAe systems and Lockhead Martin will now be able to manufacture more weapons and sell them to Ukraine and also to Finland and Sweden who now want to join NATO! So there will be good profits for UK companies there! Zelensky is still in Kyiv so i don't quite know what Mr Putin is going to do when Russia is completely surrounded by NATO, with Ukraine having more weapons from the UK and US!? I think the only thing he will be able to do then,,is 'cut off the Gas'!
Oh but then Russia won't get any $US or £..foreign currency..but i suppose maybe by then we will all be on Bitcoin! Well at least you still have the Soviet News Agency TASS to tell you that everything in Russia is just Great!

 

[FreddyFX]

I agree with you, Brett, in any case trade what the charts show us and be careful.

 

[Sive Morten]

I'm not too much in agreement on the economic situation in Europe or especially UK Sive? The UK has now left the EU and we can totally control our own monetary policy and we don't give £39Billion to EU every year anymore. We have Zero unemployment at the moment but with some inflation which we have had before in the 1970's! So what!? All Inflation is created by Central Banks printing money' and giving it's populations excuses for that! The Covid' was one and the proxy war in Ukraine is just another! BAe systems and Lockhead Martin will now be able to manufacture more weapons and sell them to Ukraine and also to Finland and Sweden who now want to join NATO! So there will be good profits for UK companies there! Zelensky is still in Kyiv so i don't quite know what Mr Putin is going to do when Russia is completely surrounded by NATO, with Ukraine having more weapons from the UK and US!? I think the only thing he will be able to do then,,is 'cut off the Gas'!
Oh but then Russia won't get any $US or £..foreign currency..but i suppose maybe by then we will all be on Bitcoin! Well at least you still have the Soviet News Agency TASS to tell you that everything in Russia is just Great!

I agree with you, Brett, in any case trade what the charts show us and be careful.

Hi guys, first of all, before any argumentation you should take a look at Russia fundamentals at least (that is better than Switzerland) and that is actually 2nd top weapon exporter in the world.... Anyway, we're not about the Russia.

I haven't talked about gas, weapon and politics in the video - let's keep it aside. I'm taking purely on UK fundamentals like these ones:

CPI, %:

Current account

Trade balance:

Retail Sales

Personal Savings:

Finally, consumer confidence:

The question is - who will pay for record budget deficit and trade deficit, when inflation is around 10% and Debt/GDP is around 95%? BoE is rising rate, so the debt service becomes more expensive at all levels, starting from government and down to corporate and private consumer loans, real estate market... This is without mentioning political turmoil now. I'm not saying that this is uncontrolled process, but it provides few reasons for optimism to GBP/USD as well. Based on weekly reverse H&S setup - yes it stands by far, but, chances are growing that it will fail, and GBP drops below 1.14 level...

This is my concern as a trader, but, of course, Brett- you know best from inside, as you're living there. I have to deal with just dry stats...