FX Insights: Wednesday 04 September

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Australian GDP data came out much better than expected. Look for the buying opportunities on the AUS/USD throughout the London and New York sessions today.
 
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simonpeter

Recruit
Messages
1
Hi Jarratt, thank you for your valuable analysis at the first place! My question is on what sources do you measure that AUD GDP became much better than expected? I see in the calendar that it has come out just as expected at 0.6% quarterly and 2.6 instead of 2.5% annually. Thanks, simon
 

redrag

Private, 1st Class
Messages
51
Hi Jarratt

Thank you for that. Of course, we can all get the same tip a bit earlier by following your Twitter feed.

Personally, I found your background insights regarding the fundamental and sentiment factors driving the long- and short-term direction of various pairs most valuable. Are these now finished?

Regards.
 

forexjosa

Private, 1st Class
Messages
48
I would say it is very kind of you Simon consider that is a "valuable analysis".

But anyway, why someone give 2cents for a sentence like "data came better (...) look for buying opportunities"?! Come on. That is not an analysis of any kind, everyone that can read forex factory calendar can assume that, any rookie trader outhere.

And speaking of that (rookie?!) what was all about that great tip of "buy usdjpy, hurry," in some weeks ago. It would rock to 110 for sure... Too bad it did exactly the opposed!
Well, we all notice the value of that no brain tips in that time.
 

Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hi Jarratt, thank you for your valuable analysis at the first place! My question is on what sources do you measure that AUD GDP became much better than expected? I see in the calendar that it has come out just as expected at 0.6% quarterly and 2.6 instead of 2.5% annually. Thanks, simon

Hi Simonpeter,

I can see that the FF calendar indeed had the number come out exactly the same as expected, but all of the institutional news feeds actually showed the expected number slightly lower, hence the markets reaction.

Forex Factory is a fantastic resource, but I would advise investing into some more professional news sources if / when you can.

The sources that I am using are Ransquawk and MNI ... As these provide insights and information that the FF calendar simply cannot. I also subscribe to the FX analysis from Bloomberg, which is also fantastic. These feeds are all real time, and they also filter the news and highlight the events that will actually move the markets, which as you can imagine is a huge help.

I have actually noticed discrepancies between The FF calendar and the other institutional feeds several times in the past, but have never quite understood how they arise!

Anyway, hope this helps, and that you caught the move up on the Aussie! :)

If you have any more questions, please do not hesitate to let me know

J
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Hi Jarratt

Thank you for that. Of course, we can all get the same tip a bit earlier by following your Twitter feed.

Personally, I found your background insights regarding the fundamental and sentiment factors driving the long- and short-term direction of various pairs most valuable. Are these now finished?

Regards.


Hi Redrag,

Hope you're well, good to hear from you again :)

No, I can add these too if there is a demand! (Although I do post these each week in my newsletter) The only reason I have changed it was due to quite a few people requesting something a little more regular.

Also, please feel free to comment on the threads and bounce any ideas that you have off me .... For example, If you have a pair or currency in mind just ask and I can give you my Fundamental / Sentiment outlook as I see it in the mid / longer term no worries.

I've probably mentioned this in the past, but the price is driven by two forces, Sentiment and Fundamentals. This has been perfectly illustrated on the USD/JPY over the past 8 months.

The first 3 months were driven purely by fundamentals ... While the past few months have been driven by sentiment.

So the fundamentals are still going to take the pair higher (Fed tapering + BOJ easing) but the fact that there has been massive amounts of uncertainty has pulled it lower (The 'will they won't they' Fed tapering saga & Syrian Crisis etc...) When the markets are uncertain, they run to safe havens and the yen is a major safe haven (Along with Swiss and USD)

This does not mean that everyone has changed their minds about the long, or that the fundamentals will no longer have an effect, just that while there is uncertainty the yen will temporarily strengthen, as traders flee risky assets.

Fundamentals change much more slowly and are always there in the background .... Sentiment can literally change intra-day based on events.

I suppose the trick to profiting from all of this is just identifying when one is dominating the other, which is simply done by reading the institutional news feeds as much as you can. These feeds will actually explain each move and give the reasons behind them so you can have an idea.

They will also highlight the things that could be moving the market for the upcoming session.

Then it's just a case of practice, practice, practice .... Eventually it will become second nature.

Hope this helps, but again please feel free to ask any questions that you have etc ... I'm more than happy to help where I can :)

J
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
I would say it is very kind of you Simon consider that is a "valuable analysis".

But anyway, why someone give 2cents for a sentence like "data came better (...) look for buying opportunities"?! Come on. That is not an analysis of any kind, everyone that can read forex factory calendar can assume that, any rookie trader outhere.

And speaking of that (rookie?!) what was all about that great tip of "buy usdjpy, hurry," in some weeks ago. It would rock to 110 for sure... Too bad it did exactly the opposed!
Well, we all notice the value of that no brain tips in that time.


Hi Forexjosa,

Thanks for your post and honest views :)


J
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
Follow up to yesterdays trade tip:

The AUD/USD did indeed rally up from around 0.9100 at the London open, to a high of 0.9185.

I personally entered long from 0.9130 and took profits at just under 0.9180 (A text alert was also sent to our subscribers with this trade)

Thanks

J
 
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forexjosa

Private, 1st Class
Messages
48
Hi Forexjosa,

Thanks for your post and honest views :)


J

No, let me thank you for your honest approach to this industry.

Speaking of honesty, why you have publicity this account in myfxbook as your discretionary trade account Jarratt Davis Trading System | Myfxbook while is in fact the same account as Mr. Wang Liming, Spytrader System | Myfxbook, a trader that manage accounts and sell signal through their automated bot (with some manual surveillance)?

I would appreciate very much if you can give me a straight answer to that question.

Thank you again.
 
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Jarratt Davis

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
1,495
No, let me thank you for your honest approach to this industry.

Speaking of honesty, why you have publicity this account in myfxbook as your discretionary trade account Jarratt Davis Trading System | Myfxbook while is in fact the same account as Mr. Wang Liming, Spytrader System | Myfxbook, a trader that manage accounts and sell signal through their automated bot (with some manual surveillance)?

I would appreciate very much if you can give me a straight answer to that question.

Thank you again.


Hi Forexjosa,

Thanks again for your comments and question regarding the managed accounts business that I run.

Here is the answer to your query:

I myself offer managed accounts through a London based company, Called SMILe Global Management, more about which you can find out at the website here:

Smile Global Management

As you can see Smile as a company is the FX trading arm of a larger investment management company called 'Independent Portfolio Managers' and the company as a whole manage over £150million in client assets.
You will also notice through your careful research that we are also regulated in the UK by the FCA to manage clients money, in case you missed it, our registration number is here: 184115

As head of FX at SMILe it is one of my roles to not only trade clients accounts myself, but also find and manage other traders for this purpose so that our clients have a range of FX products to suit their circumstances.

I have worked with Liming for a long time and his strategy is one that we use on certain client accounts, we used the myfxbook platform to show our clients that we are indeed profitable and that our strategies do make our clients money. His strategy in particular is very useful for smaller clients that are using MT4 accounts or those clients that simply do not want to move their funds to our recommended broker and have their funds traded under our PAMM structure. (Typically retail clients)

Why do I promote his strategy under the heading 'Jarratt Davis'?

The reason for this is two fold, firstly it is one of the strategies that we offer and Liming is part of our trading team. However, if a client were to come to me and ask about our results, to show them a page in someones name other than mine would seem a little strange, therefore to save unnecessary questions and concerns and with Liming's permission (Because it is actually impossible to do it without his permission, just try it) we placed that link in our name so that clients were familiar with it when looking at performance.

The second reason we use Liming's account and not one of my own is that the PAMM accounts at the broker through which I trade my own strategy is unfortunately not compatible with myfxbook... Again, for your reference we work with the institutional broker 'CFH markets' in London.

Their proprietary platform does not collaborate with myfxbook. They do offer MT4 separately but this is a completely different set up from the PAMM which itself cannot connect. Therefore, this is another reason we use Liming's strategy rather than mine to go through myfxbook.

I'm sure being someone who takes great pride in your research you will want to contact CFH and confirm that this is all accurate so please feel free to call them on the number below, and simply ask for Dimitrios who is our account manager there. He will be more than happy to confirm that I am trading client accounts through them :)

(UK)02034558798

Ofcourse, Verification of my success is also very important, so all of my accounts are audited by a third party, regulated, firm and show my profits dating back to the start of 2009. They are also verified and reported by the Barclay's currency traders index (Which also ranks me among other FX traders) and finally we have a regulatory obligation to the FCA to post accurate figures, with the threat of legal action and a revocation of our license if we do not.

These things are generally enough to convince an institutional investor that we are indeed who we say we are.

I hope this answer is to your satisfaction, but please let me know if you have any further queries.

Thanks again :)
 
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